Page 1294 of 1309 FirstFirst ... 2947941194124412841290129112921293129412951296129712981304 ... LastLast
Results 25,861 to 25,880 of 26180

Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #25861
    Platinum Krypt's Avatar
    Reputation
    621
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Washington DC
    Posts
    3,948
    I would tail you daly but I have all my btc in binance and still need to xfer to bookmaker

  2. #25862
    Residential Neighborhood badguy23's Avatar
    Reputation
    599
    Join Date
    Jun 2012
    Posts
    5,401
    I'm at casino

    Seahawks Minus 3

    All u can eat.

    Boys

     
    Comments
      
      Sheesfaced:

  3. #25863
    Quote Originally Posted by badguy23 View Post
    I'm at casino

    Seahawks Minus 3

    All u can eat.

    Boys
    I'm with you Badguy. Lets eat tonight

  4. #25864
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
    Reputation
    1948
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    7,997
    There are some sharper prop books like sunwager that are dealing C Edwards Rec yards 29.5 and some other more square books still dealing 23.5. That’s a fairly good middle chance

  5. #25865
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
    Reputation
    1948
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    7,997
    I stole this


    Since 2015 when the first game between two divisional opponents has gone over 70 total points, the second game has been under 50.5 points 13 out of 14 times. The one exception was 2016 between the Falcons and Saints in a dome.

    With cold rain projected throughout and a Seattle offense that hasn’t been as hot since the start of the season, I believe this trend will continue.

    ARI/SEA U57

  6. #25866
    Platinum Krypt's Avatar
    Reputation
    621
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Washington DC
    Posts
    3,948
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Krypt View Post
    I need a 5 star lock mothrrfckr


    Don’t have any of those.

    Here is what I played though.

    Tulane
    Tulsa u28½ (-115) - 1st H
    W

  7. #25867
    ALERT going back 5 years different coaching different defenses different uniforms?

    russell sonatine westbrook wilson has had out of 16 games per year 8th in qbr once against the cardinals and then 15 and 16 3 times enjoy that stat idiot like he literally had a 10 qbr against the cardinals multiple times

  8. #25868
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
    Reputation
    1948
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    7,997
    Quote Originally Posted by Krypt View Post
    I would tail you daly but I have all my btc in binance and still need to xfer to bookmaker
    No rush. Game hasn’t started yet.

     
    Comments
      
      Krypt: fml unreal bet

  9. #25869
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
    Reputation
    1948
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    7,997
    Been a while since I dropped one of these but I gave a under in a college game in 2020 with a 0-0 score.



     
    Comments
      
      Dan Druff:

  10. #25870
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
    Reputation
    1948
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    7,997
    Lol - wasn’t entertained.....


    Name:  D41D2F29-D854-443E-8B85-08DCEB3FA3B9.jpeg
Views: 150
Size:  352.5 KB

     
    Comments
      
      Walter Sobchak: That just means you're good

  11. #25871
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
    Reputation
    1948
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    7,997
    Holy smokes what a 2h in Tulsa last night. Most bettors in the under total markeT got 54.5 or better but late punters got 54 or 53.5. Fucking incredible Loss after a 0-0 1H. Which brings me to my lesson for the day. This may be obvious to some but it’s something I’ve stuck to and it’s worked out for me.

    If you are going to bet unders in football I do so with the following in mind.

    If the game is “close” spread of ~10 or less (like last night) bet the under 1H. If the spread indicates blowout ~30 or more bet under game. Now like all “rules” it won’t always work out but I’ve had success with it.

    College games have a natural tenancy for more scoring in the 2H. O figures out D. Front 7 gets tired. If a team is down 7-14 in the late 3Q the coach opens up the O which means more yards and more chances for turnovers. The other obvious thing is you avoid OT from the equation. So by betting the 1H you are taking a lot of bullshit out of the equation. You can look at the game and correctly predict a tight Performace but a wild 4Q can fuck up the bet.

    Now the above is true when talent is close. When it’s Clemson vs Miss Mary’s kindergarten with a spread of 40 and a total of 47.5 its a different gameflow. What you are expecting here is for clemson to put the team down early and then send in the freshman to run student body right student body left until there is no time left on the clock. Clemson 35-0 at half clemson 42-0 at game. In this instance you don’t want to bet into the time period when the dominant team is looking for the blowout. This is when you want to take the under game and actualy hope the favorite scores a lot in the 1H. It counter intuitive. To be honest in this situation I tend to wait and bet live and get a Potentially Over inflated total after a 21-0 score 13 minutes into the game.

     
    Comments
      
      Tellafriend:
      
      Crowe Diddly:

  12. #25872
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
    Reputation
    1948
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    7,997
    M Garret out Covid - Eagles +3 if you got it

  13. #25873
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
    Reputation
    5584
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    38,733
    Blog Entries
    2
    Daly is in trouble!

    He's being sent to the local bookie's principal's office for not being a good sports ploppy.

  14. #25874
    Nice job yesterday.

    You could easily get the idea that sports wagering is easy if you followed this thread these past few weeks.

    Daly was on the right side of history with Tulane Tulsa

  15. #25875
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
    Reputation
    1948
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    7,997
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Daly is in trouble!

    He's being sent to the local bookie's principal's office for not being a good sports ploppy.

    Lol - yup for sure. These “Dear John” conversations I always find absolutely hilarious. Today’s lesson of the day is about how to handle it.

    There is a scene in goodfellas where the Feds keep going to the guys houses and turning them over looking for shit. A lot of the wives let them in and swear at them and throw shit at them because they understand at the end of the day they mean them harm. Mrs Hill let them in and made them coffee and generally understood even though they are in fact there to mean them harm there is zero upside to being an asshole. In fact by playing nice you might be able to catch a break or maybe work with them. It opens up doors, potentially.

    90% of guys running a local book or working as a agent for one aren’t complete scumbags, synonymous to the FBI agents above. The got into making book to supplement an income as a side hustle. You probably can’t make a living working a local bar Mon-Wed but you can use it as a office to collect/Pay. Make legit money as a bartender all year & during football season make half your salary running numbers. These aren’t monsters we are talking about.

    Sidebar: Sport betting in 2020 is temporarily disrupted by legalized outfits entering the market. Right now, and this will be short lived, they don’t care about profitability. Draftkings is spending in advertising as much money if not more than they are winning. The name of the game is telling Wall Street about how much market share they have. Increased handle is all that counts. They aren’t in the PRIMARY business of stoping sharp play but that’s not to say that some have reduced limits or they other doing other dirty tricks like dealing sharp lines to certain players.

    The average local bookmaker, if they have a clue, understands that one sharp player in the henhouse can ruin profitability. The name of the game isn’t handle but how much is lost and can they collect it. Very simple business model. So you get a local book who deals prop lines with same limits as sides and totals. You follow Daly on the thread, you follow some folks on twitter, you do some homework on a sport you know well and you crush. “You get the contact your agent” Page. Job well done frankly.

    At this point we are at the “Mrs Hill” stage. I have some associates who take this shit personal and it’s easy to understand why. All roads lead to the same endgame. “You win too much” followed by “Well what if I didn’t win would you have taken the money”. There is never a good answer to this. They mean you harm and for their benefit. If you were a fish they would take your money for the next 50 years. It’s a bit of a “Fuck you” in a way. But if you understand the above these aren’t “bad people”. They are just running a side hustle. If they were running a painting company instead and Trump walked in, who has a history of not paying for work rendered, and they made a decision to turn down a contract because this client is going to be a problem you would applaud it as a good business decision. At the end of the day - it’s the same situation here. Going “scorched earth” isn’t going to help the situation. They aren’t going to “turn you back on” no matter what you say or do.

    So here is the real lesson. Understand the game is over for you here and treat it as an opportunity. The single handed best way to find New books..... is through other bookmakers/agents. You can bring them to the dark side as well. If they are an agent and not book you can make them a deal and give them a share of the account. You can pay them referral fees to find other books.

    True sharps know the hard part isn’t finding the winners to bet on that’s the hard part. The hard part is finding someone to take the action. Try and recruit a friend an And not make enemies.

     
    Comments
      
      Sheesfaced: There’s wisdom in these here words.
      
      Dan Druff:
      
      Tellafriend: There is iron in your words Daly.
      
      JeffDime: +++

  16. #25876
    Any college football bets today?

  17. #25877
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
    Reputation
    1948
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    7,997
    Quote Originally Posted by Sheesfaced View Post
    Any college football bets today?

    Really thought Clemson was going to boatrace free shoes U, but Covid.

    I got Ohio State -20.5. World seems to hate this bet. it briefly touched 21 after I made the bet and it lasted about 30 seconds.

    I got Florida -30.5. They going to boatrace vandy plain and simple

    This is one of those “low upside” touts becuase I could easily end up looking like a fool but I really like what I’ve seen out of Northwestern so far and they have a good history vs Wisconsin straight up let alone vs the number. Could get outclassed and lose by 40 but I don’t think so.

    Georgia -24. Miss st is in trouble today I think. Could be 50

    All my other bets from earlier this week got canceled.

    I’m going to see how the early games go. “For action” I’ll probably end up with some cinci $$ -4.5. For
    Some homework to do on Utah. I seem to recall they lost a lot from last year and I’m trying to figure out why USC is “only” 2.5

  18. #25878
    I have Ohio State -11.5 first half. They’ve been going to sleep on defense at end of game.

     
    Comments
      
      Daly: Yeah now that you mention it I think I like that more than game

  19. #25879
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
    Reputation
    5584
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    38,733
    Blog Entries
    2
    Quote Originally Posted by BCR View Post
    I have Ohio State -11.5 first half. They’ve been going to sleep on defense at end of game.
    Already jumped to -12.5.

    Since both you and Daly like it, I'll fire. It's -12.5 -105 on BOL.

    gl

  20. #25880
    osu is bullying these nerds right now

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 4 users browsing this thread. (1 members and 3 guests)

  1. Daly

Similar Threads

  1. Literally Flying Stupidity
    By FRANKRIZZO in forum Flying Stupidity
    Replies: 5
    Last Post: 10-21-2014, 03:17 PM
  2. flying stupidity is shitting the bed
    By mulva in forum Flying Stupidity
    Replies: 4
    Last Post: 08-26-2014, 04:02 PM
  3. Replies: 9
    Last Post: 08-07-2012, 09:35 PM
  4. Flying Car for Flying Stupidity
    By hotshott74 in forum Flying Stupidity
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 04-19-2012, 06:34 PM
  5. Replies: 0
    Last Post: 03-19-2012, 11:34 AM

Tags for this Thread