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Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #22901
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Even more interesting is how often the three most hated players from the scandal -- Altuve, Bregman, and Correa -- will get hit.
    Should be at least a couple dozen, but probably won't be.
    SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798

  2. #22902
    Quote Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Even more interesting is how often the three most hated players from the scandal -- Altuve, Bregman, and Correa -- will get hit.
    Should be at least a couple dozen, but probably won't be.
    First, the sporting world has gone soft. Contact is being phased out.

    I’m fan of Pedro Martinez (Red Sox 1999) and his willingness to hit a batter, for instance. That’s just not gonna make a comeback in 2020.

    Those wagers are a public offering and you need to fight that urge right now. You seem to understand.

    Justice is a childish concept and you will find its occurrence infrequently. If you do spot and bet on justice your book will shut you down.

  3. #22903
    The HBP fantasy reminded me of Trevor Bauer last year.

    Crazy bastard promised he would stop throwing under the chins of batters who leaned over the plate and hit their ribs instead. Tito Franconia had to walk that back politically as only Tito can in that folksy way of his. Bauer really had no idea what he was saying was wrong.

    Bauer brought me so much joy. Chucking the ball over the center field wall in frustration. HOF

    Bauer posting on his Twitter his bandaid under his shirt that let him know when to go “all in” or “fold” when playing poker. He did this about 2 months before the scandal went public.

    https://twitter.com/baueroutage/stat...544897?lang=en

    Pitchers knew about Altuve


    Can’t wait for spring

  4. #22904
    first game starts in 10 minutes, but here's an angle that I heard on daily wager that makes some sense...

    blindly bet Q1 Unders for team's first game back from AS break as they've been off for 6 days with no practice and are coming back cold...

    ive got money on all these unders...hope this theory pans out...worked well in '19...

    CHA/CHI 54 -113 W
    MIA/ATL 59 -110 L
    BKN/PHL 52.5 -120 W
    MIL/DET 56 -110 W
    MEM/SAC 55.5 -109 L
    HOU/GS 59.5 -112 W

    EDIT: 4-2, not too bad...think the theory has legs...the two losers had no fucking shot, don't know if that's good or bad...will post tomorrow for the last round of first games after the break...

     
    Comments
      
      Sanlmar: I need to make Q1 my life’s work but I am weak. Carrying the torch rep
    Last edited by GambleBotsChafedPenis; 02-20-2020 at 09:13 PM.

  5. #22905
    place holder for tomorrow's Q1 unders:

    CLV/WSH
    DAL/ORL 56 -109
    PHX/TOR 55.5 -114
    IND/NYK 54.5 -118
    DEN/OKC 55 -109
    BOS/MIN 54.5 -117
    SA/UTH 54.5 -109
    NO/POR 61 -113
    MEM/LAL ---> MEM is on B2B, so might not play this one as it won't be their first game post break...

    still have 8 clean ones so will probably just go with those...

    EDIT: lines are up for all but one game now...gonna sit on these for a bit to see if I want to bet now or closer to game time...
    Last edited by GambleBotsChafedPenis; 02-21-2020 at 09:47 AM.

  6. #22906
    glad I waited on some of these games...had a feeling given today's NBA some might tick up a bit...

    CLV/WSH 58 -110 L
    DAL/ORL 56.5 -114 W
    PHX/TOR 55.5 -112 W
    IND/NYK 54.5 -118 W
    DEN/OKC 55.5 -118 W
    BOS/MIN 54.5 -114 W
    SA/UTH 54.5 -114 W
    NO/POR 61 -120 L

    got better lines or prices on the bolded games, got worse prices on the last two games...

    working with a 2 unit head start after last night...

    EDIT: 4 more units tonight for a nice and tidy 6 units on the base strategy with the secondary strategy of taking the full game overs live having a nice run as well...again the losers got fucking hammered, don't know if that really matters or not...I definitely think this is a viable strategy since it has presented itself quite well over multiple years...do the books adjust for this? somebody with better knowledge of how books run could speak to this better...I'd lean towards them not really adjusting since this is what I would classify as a "micro event" since we're only attacking a one game sample...just gotta remember this one next year...
    Last edited by GambleBotsChafedPenis; 02-21-2020 at 09:04 PM.

  7. #22907
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Okay, a week off of sportsbetting for me... let's go:

    Starting in a few:

    Dallas at Orlando - Over 221.5

    Starting in an hour:

    OKC -2 vs. Denver

  8. #22908
    another angle for this first game out of the break that the guy on daily wager gave today was to live bet the overs on the games that went under in the first...basically figuring that if these guys start slow through 1 that they find their sea legs as the game goes on...

    i fired a half unit on all of these...let's see how they end up...

    DAL/ORL O 218.5 (pregame 220.5) W
    NYK/IND O 195 (pregame 213.5) W
    PHO/TOR O 226.5 (pregame 228.5) L
    BOS/MIN O 216 (pregame 226.5) W
    DEN/OKC O 204.5 (pregame 216) W
    SA/UTH O 217 (pregame 223.5) P

    beat a lot of the closing lines by a decent amount...
    Last edited by GambleBotsChafedPenis; 02-21-2020 at 09:20 PM.

  9. #22909
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Nice job GBCP.

    I also had a nice, albeit fewer pick day, going 2-0 and not having a difficult sweat with either.

  10. #22910
    You got a wicked high Q Rating GBCP

    While I got ya,

    I knew you’d appreciate ... this is Wynn’s Encore Boston tonight

    Slot machines inside Encore Boston Harbor experience failure
    https://www.wcvb.com/article/slot-ma...s-say/31051039

    The inside joke amongst guys like you and me is that the real slot failure is the fact that no one is playing slots in Boston. The mix table games to slots is unusually low for slots since day 1.

    Why would they be? Cause Boston is a financial center and a college town. Young people with brains not the Vegas mouth breathers passing through McCarron - Celine Dion tickets clutched to their breast

    Die Wynn. Operating income is shit. Someday someone will notice
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 02-21-2020 at 11:16 PM.

  11. #22911
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    You got a wicked high Q Rating GBCP

    While I got ya,

    I knew you’d appreciate ... this is Wynn’s Encore Boston tonight

    Slot machines inside Encore Boston Harbor experience failure
    https://www.wcvb.com/article/slot-ma...s-say/31051039

    The inside joke amongst guys like you and me is that the real slot failure is the fact that no one is playing slots in Boston. The mix table games to slots is unusually low for slots since day 1.

    Why would they be? Cause Boston is a financial center and a college town. Young people with brains not the Vegas mouth breathers passing through McCarron - Celine Dion tickets clutched to their breast

    Die Wynn. Operating income is shit. Someday someone will notice
    give it maaaaaaaaaybe 2 years and people will start to notice...

    cant remember the exact details on revel in AC...purged most of my AC memories/knowledge outta my head (very happy about that)...but think it maybe lasted a year before it got shitcanned...but that's AC, a mature gaming market that was going to shit and more experienced operators knew when things were going to shit...but then again the evil empire is still operating 3 properties down there...……………………….so...in boston you have the newness of the toy...that newness will wear off (it'll just take longer than in AC) and people will start asking "where's the beef?"...

    Ive come up with an angle for live betting NBA totals...same angle as my above thesis, but need data...don't want to get all happy about shit on a very small sample of games that are outside the regular flow of the season...hopefully I can start tomorrow and report back next Friday...

  12. #22912
    All Sorts of Sports gut's Avatar
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    Is this the week the XFL totals get over-corrected? Biggest is 45.5.

    Threw some small change on all 4 overs.
    Last edited by gut; 02-22-2020 at 02:52 AM.

  13. #22913
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gut View Post
    Is this the week the XFL totals get over-corrected? Biggest is 45.5.

    Threw some small change on all 4 overs.
    I like Houston today -6.5. That Tampa team canít score and Houston looks like the best team in the leauge to me.

    I wouldnít touch over in any of these games but at least the number is more realistic. Oddly enough Vegas opened up the XFL in the low 40ís and had to adjust it up to as high as 54 opening weekend. Turns out they know what they are doing.

  14. #22914
    Trailing you for -7 on vada but they fuck up xps all the time in this league so it weirdly doesn't matter

  15. #22915
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Sacramento +9 at Clippers

    Starting 12:35pm PT

  16. #22916
    All Sorts of Sports gut's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by gut View Post
    Is this the week the XFL totals get over-corrected? Biggest is 45.5.

    Threw some small change on all 4 overs.
    I like Houston today -6.5. That Tampa team can’t score and Houston looks like the best team in the leauge to me.

    I wouldn’t touch over in any of these games but at least the number is more realistic. Oddly enough Vegas opened up the XFL in the low 40’s and had to adjust it up to as high as 54 opening weekend. Turns out they know what they are doing.
    There's the first one. Tampa's offense finally looks cohesive. Figured after 2 games some of these slow starters will catch up.

    Now need Seattle, NY, and LA to do the same.
    Last edited by gut; 02-22-2020 at 02:18 PM.

  17. #22917
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Sacramento +9 at Clippers

    Starting 12:35pm PT


    Wish I had the gamble to have done +475 moneyline on this.

  18. #22918
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Here's another one starting soon:

    Atlanta -1.5 (-2 ok) vs. Dallas - Porzingis & Doncic out

  19. #22919
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gut View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post

    I like Houston today -6.5. That Tampa team canít score and Houston looks like the best team in the leauge to me.

    I wouldnít touch over in any of these games but at least the number is more realistic. Oddly enough Vegas opened up the XFL in the low 40ís and had to adjust it up to as high as 54 opening weekend. Turns out they know what they are doing.
    There's the first one. Tampa's offense finally looks cohesive. Figured after 2 games some of these slow starters will catch up.

    Now need Seattle, NY, and LA to do the same.
    So we got 3-0 to the over with Houston, 7-0 to the Under without.

  20. #22920
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    It really pained me to bet Atlanta as a favorite, but here I am.

    Fucking Dallas has neither Doncic nor Porzingis, and they're still up by 11 early on.

    The Hawks are really terrible.

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