Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #30661
    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    got a mild bet tonight, $200 on the under for the Ole-Louisville game, just think 75 is too high. I mean 38-31 you win the under which is a ton of points.
    for the record, I could not name a single player on either team, but 75 points kinda high total.
    Plus Lane Kiffin out with virus so that hurts bigly.

     
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      Walter Sobchak: Pay your child support

  2. #30662
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    got a mild bet tonight, $200 on the under for the Ole-Louisville game, just think 75 is too high. I mean 38-31 you win the under which is a ton of points.
    for the record, I could not name a single player on either team, but 75 points kinda high total.
    The ole miss QB corral will play on Sundays. Not sure how good he will be when he gets there.

  3. #30663
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    Wink

    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post

    for the record, I could not name a single player on either team, but 75 points kinda high total.
    The ole miss QB corral will play on Sundays. Not sure how good he will be when he gets there.


    tv sweating Over 75.5. ughhhhh....

  4. #30664
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Weren’t unders roughly 44-22?

    I would like an explanation before I stuck my finger in the over socket.

  5. #30665
    Platinum JeffDime's Avatar
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    Bets for August 30- Sept 5 (Week 6)

    Settled. All Lost

    PGA Tour Championship (Bonus Strokes Applied) - $1600 on Jon Rahm +400 (Caesars)

    Euro Italian Open - $400 B Wiesberger +2200 (MGM)

    Parlay of Both - $100 +10250 (MGM) * Note payoff is less b/c Rahm is +350 but only site allows me to parlay.

    Parlay Rahm w/strokes +350 with C Bezioudenhout Korn Ferry Champ +1800 (MGM) - $180 at +8450

    Start $50,000 Remaining $44,020 Current Week $0 Last Week -$2,280

    Total Win/Loss -$5,980

    覧覧覧覧覧覧-

    It sucks.

  6. #30666
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    sports betting python

    https://www.indeed.com/jobs?q=Sports...7fa861b0b05363

    AI & Machine Learning Data Scientist ….

    I’ve described my AI vision before. If I was crooked I would AI/Mach Learn my online casino for customer behavior.


    I feel like the doctor gave me a cancer diagnosis. I knew the Golden Age was in its Golden Years.

    I suck at chess and I can’t paint watercolors

  7. #30667
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Not much time left this season, but I have found that average-ish AL teams playing at home in interleague games have way outperformed the line in the last 15 years. There were a few dud years in there, but most years this printed money.

    Indeed, this year, if you take out the Yakees, Rays, White Sox, Red Sox, and Astros (good), as well as the Orioles and Rangers (bad), you have a very good interleague record, especially at home.

  8. #30668
    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
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    Weekend results:

    OU - Tulane OU spread, loss
    Texas - Louisiana second half over, win
    FSU - ND over win
    Clemson straight up, loss
    Ole - Louisville under win

    Normally when you win 3 and lose two its a nice weekend, but I got crushed on OU.

    I am not probably betting any more college until the virus cools off, too many players all of a sudden not playing day of game. The way OU played they might have had 5 starters out.

     
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      Sanlmar: crazy times for sure
      
      Walter Sobchak: It would also help if you knew what you were doing

  9. #30669
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Genessee Ale Bowl
    Boston College @ UMass

    Boston College -36ス -115
    Opened 38

    Boston College/Massachusetts under 59 -110

    BC has a 99.3% vax rate tgull

    Co-sign?
    Smash the under?
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 09-07-2021 at 07:39 AM.

  10. #30670
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    In football, what痴 better value:
    +2.5 point spread at +100, or
    +3 point spread at -110
    ?

     
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      JeffDime: Been wrapped up in my own BS…great job the with UFC. Nice to see you in here. I’ll defer this question to the big guy. I know around 37 in football is one of the only times it makes sense. I think it’s prob +3 since you are just laying the norm vig
      
      shoeshine box: +3/-110

  11. #30671
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sandwich View Post
    In football, what’s better value:
    +2.5 point spread at +100, or
    +3 point spread at -110
    ?

    Sorry about the long winded rep but great job with UFC. I do think there are times in Football when the spread is around 3 where it makes sense, as long as what you are laying is not ridiculous. In this case laying normal juice at +3 would be my guess is the proper play.

    Football is not my specialty so Daly may rip my ass open here, but I do think in this particular situation I am correct. There technically would be more value at +100 but I don’t think that half a point is worth it in this exact scenario.

  12. #30672
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sandwich View Post
    In football, what痴 better value:
    +2.5 point spread at +100, or
    +3 point spread at -110
    ?
    3 all day long

    3 is the most key of all numbers. To buy from 2.5 to 3 should cost -at least .15 if not .20.

  13. #30673
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Genessee Ale Bowl
    Boston College @ UMass

    Boston College -36ス -115
    Opened 38

    Boston College/Massachusetts under 59 -110

    BC has a 99.3% vax rate tgull

    Co-sign?
    Smash the under?
    Already laid the lumber. Keep laying it until UMASS can prove it can cover.

  14. #30674
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    Weekend results:

    OU - Tulane OU spread, loss
    Texas - Louisiana second half over, win
    FSU - ND over win
    Clemson straight up, loss
    Ole - Louisville under win

    Normally when you win 3 and lose two its a nice weekend, but I got crushed on OU.

    I am not probably betting any more college until the virus cools off, too many players all of a sudden not playing day of game. The way OU played they might have had 5 starters out.

    Ou had no starters out. Tulane has a veteran mostly Sr team with one of the better OL痴 in the country, esp considering they aren稚 power 5.

    The line opened at 21 2 months ago for a reason.

  15. #30675
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Genessee Ale Bowl
    Boston College @ UMass

    Boston College -36ス -115
    Opened 38

    Boston College/Massachusetts under 59 -110

    BC has a 99.3% vax rate tgull

    Co-sign?
    Smash the under?
    Already laid the lumber. Keep laying it until UMASS can prove it can cover.
    Serious question. Is this game off the public’s radar? It is Tuesday and the story hasn’t caught traction this early?

    I’m not following college very much and have no feel for what people are talking about. Is this Bryant/Monmouth in the world view?

     
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      Daly: UMASS isn’t front page news

  16. #30676
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Give me Noren for the Euro BMW with a splash of Horsfield

  17. #30677
    Platinum JeffDime's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Give me Noren for the Euro BMW with a splash of Horsfield
    All I am doing this week is betting Horsfield. A lot of top guys from the Euro Tour, good players who underperformed in the playoffs in the US and some nice long shots in the field. Hovland may very well win but not if he misses greens. Can’t take him at the price. Hatton last big win was this tournament last year. But he is in his worst form in years. Alot of money and R2D points.

    I can make a lot of cases for a lot of guys here. Instead I am just taking a punt on Horsfield. I got him $800 at 66-1 and he quickly moved to 50-1. I think you can probably find him at 60-1 or better in some places.

    That will be the only play this week. I’ll update the ledger later. It’s a major gamble and that’s why his odds are what they are. Not jumping off the horse at this price in a field that is really tough to narrow down when you start looking elsewhere.

    I’ll cover Noren as well because of the big guy. Not for 8 bills but he’ll be covered.

     
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      shoeshine box: Horsfeld it is

  18. #30678
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Here's two coming up very soon:

    Cleveland (Civale) vs. Minnesota (Gant) - Over 10.5 -105
    Pittsburgh (D. Peters) -109 vs. Detroit (W. Peralta)

  19. #30679
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    Quote Originally Posted by JeffDime View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Give me Noren for the Euro BMW with a splash of Horsfield
    All I am doing this week is betting Horsfield. A lot of top guys from the Euro Tour, good players who underperformed in the playoffs in the US and some nice long shots in the field. Hovland may very well win but not if he misses greens. Can稚 take him at the price. Hatton last big win was this tournament last year. But he is in his worst form in years. Alot of money and R2D points.

    I can make a lot of cases for a lot of guys here. Instead I am just taking a punt on Horsfield. I got him $800 at 66-1 and he quickly moved to 50-1. I think you can probably find him at 60-1 or better in some places.

    That will be the only play this week. I値l update the ledger later. It痴 a major gamble and that痴 why his odds are what they are. Not jumping off the horse at this price in a field that is really tough to narrow down when you start looking elsewhere.

    I値l cover Noren as well because of the big guy. Not for 8 bills but he値l be covered.

    TAILING NOREN/HORSFIELD
    20-1/45-1 !? BetonLine.

     
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      Daly: LFG

  20. #30680
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Just wanna mention that if you have a Disney + account for your kid, you probably have ESPN+ also. Just use your Disney login.

    All this time I didn't realize this, and feel like a moron.

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