Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #32041
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    I need some help today. I got nothing so far.
    2pm game taking over 5.5.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    I need some help today. I got nothing so far.
    I haven't done it yet, but really leaning Philly +3.5/+4. It seems they would be trying to win today and build momentum going into the playoffs. But the fact I could have gotten +6 a couple days ago making it hard to make the play.

    KC I got nothing. I dont like betting big favorites (especially with questionable motivation) in NFL, but Lock is so bad I don't want to bet Denver either.

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    All Sorts of Sports gut's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    I need some help today. I got nothing so far.
    I haven't done it yet, but really leaning Philly +3.5/+4. It seems they would be trying to win today and build momentum going into the playoffs. But the fact I could have gotten +6 a couple days ago making it hard to make the play.

    KC I got nothing. I dont like betting big favorites (especially with questionable motivation) in NFL, but Lock is so bad I don't want to bet Denver either.
    Betting NFL final reg season week = betting preseason or the pro bowl. GL HF

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    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    I need some help today. I got nothing so far.
    2pm game taking over 5.5.
    I ask the question then walked away. Nice. I was whipsawed by the Crosby in/out rumors

    Zach Fucale for a possibly sick Vanacek for Capitals? Hot young goalie? (I sound like OSA). These two teams feels like auto over but Caps may seek to protect the kid and lockdown.

    Any thoughts?

    NHL Saturdays are hard for me for some reason. I am not profitable this year on Saturday. Is it me? I can’t find anything.

    Tampa over Bruins. Am I supposed to go Regulation? Bruins still an over rated brand name IMO.

    I did this little +150 parlay last night to wet my beak at small $. Tampa -155 now -173. Not as big of the Preds now -255 now -202.

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    Last edited by Sanlmar; 01-08-2022 at 12:15 PM.

  5. #32045
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    Quote Originally Posted by gut View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post

    I haven't done it yet, but really leaning Philly +3.5/+4. It seems they would be trying to win today and build momentum going into the playoffs. But the fact I could have gotten +6 a couple days ago making it hard to make the play.

    KC I got nothing. I dont like betting big favorites (especially with questionable motivation) in NFL, but Lock is so bad I don't want to bet Denver either.
    Betting NFL final reg season week = betting preseason or the pro bowl. GL HF
    Steve Fezzik (a pro sports bettor) said on the Dream Preview preseason and this time of year are actually the best time to beat the books, with the caveat you can correctly predict motivational edge. He argues NFL is so liquid you really have no shot trying to out-think the books when both teams are at max motivation. But with something as intangible as motivation, you have a much better chance to create a model that can beat the line. Of course the inverse is true in that you have a bigger chance of being dead wrong and making a higher -EV bet than usual if your model is flawed.

  6. #32046
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by gut View Post

    Betting NFL final reg season week = betting preseason or the pro bowl. GL HF
    Steve Fezzik (a pro sports bettor) said on the Dream Preview preseason and this time of year are actually the best time to beat the books, with the caveat you can correctly predict motivational edge. He argues NFL is so liquid you really have no shot trying to out-think the books when both teams are at max motivation. But with something as intangible as motivation, you have a much better chance to create a model that can beat the line. Of course the inverse is true in that you have a bigger chance of being dead wrong and making a higher -EV bet than usual if your model is flawed.
    I really haven’t been following NFL this week. The noise is too much. The injuries, the Covid, the motivation then a new Covid…. It’s too much for me.

    Let me know what I think.

    Historically it’s a first half bet type of week. Fade second half as everyone sits. People are doing big work on props vs contract bonuses. Gronk is one.

    I haven’t been willing to do that work. I’m not a prop guy and it’s a lot of work …. I have no model to import stuff to. So it’s just a poor paying job at that point for me. I don’t have “a guy”

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    Platinum JeffDime's Avatar
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    Fucked this promo in the ass. -300 was the absolute highest odds with only 1X rollover. Pounded it. I’ll risk 3K to make 5K on a -300 any day of the week. Now we shall see if they give me shit. Was all within the rules. Don’t try this at home. Still have to get lucky. But massive +EV. Entire 8K was available to withdraw.

    Hail Caeser!

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      Sanlmar: Live promo? Wow…. Do elaborate please

  8. #32048
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    What were the general terms of this promo? Was it unspecified that live was or was not an option?

    Everyone has these big promos and bonuses these days. They are raining from the sky. I can only be a spectator. Although, people are flying and driving cross country cause they deem it worthwhile.

     
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      JeffDime: I don’t hunt promos either but if one falls in my lap I will try and do the best I can with it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    What were the general terms of this promo? Was it unspecified that live was or was not an option?

    Everyone has these big promos and bonuses these days. They are raining from the sky. I can only be a spectator. Although, people are flying and driving cross country cause they deem it worthwhile.

    San, I posted it above but basically it was a 3 K match up to 3K. It was issued in site credit, which is much better than free play with no stake. So essentially I have 6K in there with 3K being “bonus” funds. It is only a one time rollover. So I have to bet all 6 K but the max odds were -300. This is very high for a promo of this nature. I think they put it together very fast and probably would make requirements more stringent if they had a mulligan. Maybe a 2X rollover or something like -200 being max odds.

    This game was at halftime when I bet it. So technically a “live line” if you want to call it that. All I knew was it was right at the -300 threshold. There was no requirement on what kind of bet you make, just mainly it being -300 max. So when I saw it, I jumped on it. Knowing essentially I’m betting 3 K to come back 8K (even though it says I bet 6K) on a -300 favorite.

    Of course I am lucky it cashed. I didn’t need to know anything about the game other than the odds at the time were reasonable, for this to be massive +EV. If someone is willing to take the risk, the reward is well worth it. I got lucky it cashed, but regardless this is imho the best way to utilize this promo. Picking a straight wager as close to -300 without going over.

  10. #32050
    Platinum JeffDime's Avatar
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    Just a quick additional note. This bonus was “site credit” which needs to be rolled over, but if you do, it’s like that was your money from the start. I am very surprised they didn’t issue the match in traditional “Free Bets”, which are really only worth about half because a straight wager would basically get you back the initial value of the bet (minus juice). The vast majority of the public doesn’t know better. That’s why Bet MGM does Free Bets exclusively. That would change how to optimally use the promo. Luckily this one was site credit.

     
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      Sanlmar: Course 201: Bonuses with Professor Dime

  11. #32051
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Remember Kalem, it’s a football game not a play date

    Tyreek Hill of the Kansas City Chiefs will have over 65.5 receiving yards

    Lol

  12. #32052
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    I was leaning towards philly+4 today but they just said Hurts is only playing for a short period if at all. This makes me think they will rest other starters as well. Dallas owner Jerry Jones said he wants his team to play, So they must be playing all or most of the starters. So Dallas -4 it is. NBA Taking Magic PK for 1stq+100 also taking Magic+ 1/2 for 1st half -110
    -Allergic to the struggle

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    Was listening for the Dream Preview and RJ Bell made the point he thinks there is a very likelihood Rodgers doesn’t play at all. Because he says rodgers is very aware he is the MVP favorite and wouldn’t want to do anything Unecessary to mess it up. He also says rodgers is hyper aware of his stats at all times and Wouldn’t want to mess up his per game average by playing a partial game in a very low leverage spot.

    So given what we know, Detroit +3 is a good bet. Because some of the time rodgers and the other starters will play a partial game and it is a fair line, and some of the time they announce tomorrow they are all resting and it is a very +EV bet.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 4BET View Post
    I was leaning towards philly+4 today but they just said Hurts is only playing for a short period if at all. This makes me think they will rest other starters as well. Dallas owner Jerry Jones said he wants his team to play, So they must be playing all or most of the starters. So Dallas -4 it is. NBA Taking Magic PK for 1stq+100 also taking Magic+ 1/2 for 1st half -110
    Magic came out ice cold and scored 4 points first 4 minutes, Awful. Need Dallas to have a winning day
    -Allergic to the struggle

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    Caesar not having a good day. Glad I flipped my promo early and got out. They have been down for some time. Recent tweet saying they were back up has been deleted. People aren’t happy to say the least. Must of been massive action on the site.

    https://twitter.com/CaesarsSports/status/1479984129890476034

  16. #32056
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    Lions +3.5
    Giants +7
    Steelers +3
    Pat -6
    Chargers -3

  17. #32057
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    This NFL slate is unbettable and there is no hockey so something new for me .. props and their awful juice

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    I wanna fade Cooper Kupp cause I’m a bad man

    Sharing is caring

  18. #32058
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by JeffDime View Post
    Most if not all the experts are fading him. I’m not. I’ll update bankroll later.

    Sentry Tournament of Champions-

    1K - Sam Burns to win 18-1.

    $333 - Sam Burns first round leader 20-1.

    These are the going prices in most places.

    GL.
    Count me in the fade group but I got matchups vs the the top 10 iron in the -130s. It’s all -180’s now which is madness.

    Bryson opened in the 1400’s and was hammered down into the 700-800 range. Last time that happened he was a bad chip or 7 playoff holes away from cashing.

    I won’t be making a habit of fading Burns this year - I suspect I’ll be backing him before long.
    Burns looked good this weekend. He’s going places. I got lucky that the chalk looks like it’s going to finish in the top 10 making this a profitable fade (except for Bryson, of course).

    We can treat this as my yearly reminder to get your money in on Cam Smith for the Masters. The kids a hell of a player and he’s showing it this weekend. He’s between 40-30 to 1 at most shops. He goes on to win this weekend and then looks good over the rest of the Hawaii/Florida swing he may find his way into the 20-1 with the rest of the second level runners.

    Probably be on Im as well.

  19. #32059
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    So, hypothetically, Chargers and Raiders could agree to kneel for 65 minutes and both make playoffs. Otherwise, winner makes it with Steelers and loser goes home. Would be great to see how badly the NFL would lose its mind to see two teams kneel for an entire game on national broadcast

  20. #32060
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post

    Count me in the fade group but I got matchups vs the the top 10 iron in the -130s. It’s all -180’s now which is madness.

    Bryson opened in the 1400’s and was hammered down into the 700-800 range. Last time that happened he was a bad chip or 7 playoff holes away from cashing.

    I won’t be making a habit of fading Burns this year - I suspect I’ll be backing him before long.
    Burns looked good this weekend. He’s going places. I got lucky that the chalk looks like it’s going to finish in the top 10 making this a profitable fade (except for Bryson, of course).

    We can treat this as my yearly reminder to get your money in on Cam Smith for the Masters. The kids a hell of a player and he’s showing it this weekend. He’s between 40-30 to 1 at most shops. He goes on to win this weekend and then looks good over the rest of the Hawaii/Florida swing he may find his way into the 20-1 with the rest of the second level runners.

    Probably be on Im as well.
    Really only danger to my top 10 was some kind of ridiculous lost ball on the drive at 17. Wouldn’t you know. Very costly for me. Gambling Gods are cruel.

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