Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #31981
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JeffDime View Post
    Bricked the fucking Powerball. So unlucky.
    It's a tradition for us to get scratch tickets in our stockings at Christmas. Nothing feels worse than bricking a $10 holiday bundle where you spend about half an hour scratching all the tickets.

    Teaching the kids early that scratch tickets are -EV

     
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      JeffDime: I would work double shifts on weekends in a catering hall to flush it down the toilet on Ponies and scratchers (only thing I could get away with gambling at the time). What an idiot I was. Teaching them early…well done Simp.

  2. #31982
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Alright. You’ve been waiting up for the Overnight Shit Show. My ambition to spin my usual nonsense is not what it usually is.

    Quick recap

    Simp cashed his McDavid SOG prop. It was over by the end of the 2nd period basically. Covered for my losing prop.

    My stupid NBA teaser cashed pretty easy. Jimmy Butler wrecking his ankle allowed Warriors to coast the second leg else I might have had to sweat that one or worse yet, actually watch the NBA. No 5 Guys restaurant will be safe tomorrow.

    Basketball - 502 Philadelphia 76ers -9½ for Game
    Basketball - 518 Golden State Warriors -6½ for Game
    I watched the Warrior game. Your bet ultimately hit by half a point with both teams missing free throws at the end of the game. I would say the bet was 50/50 to cover with 2 minutes left, so I wouldn't exactly call that cashing easy.

    I had a real interesting situation last night. Basically I was watching MNF/Warriors game and saw the Hawks/Trailblazers game was at halftime, and just out of curiosity I checked the game and team totals and I was super surprised how low they were.

    The 2nd half total was 108 and the team totals were 52.5 (Portland) and 55.5 (Atl), which was all absurdly low given both these teams are so porous on defense. There was 135 points total in the first half for reference.

    Anyways, I took both teams for their team total over, and they both hit with 3 minutes left in the game (the 2nd half total was 132, so that bet hit absurdly easily too). It really seems like it was a situation where the books were just letting the algorithm do its thing, and there was no human at the controls making sure the lines made any sense at all, because they didn't. Going forward, probably something to monitor, 2nd half lines of late West Coast games, especially under the radar non national TV games.
    Last edited by Kalam; 01-04-2022 at 09:14 AM.

  3. #31983
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Alright. You’ve been waiting up for the Overnight Shit Show. My ambition to spin my usual nonsense is not what it usually is.

    Quick recap

    Simp cashed his McDavid SOG prop. It was over by the end of the 2nd period basically. Covered for my losing prop.

    My stupid NBA teaser cashed pretty easy. Jimmy Butler wrecking his ankle allowed Warriors to coast the second leg else I might have had to sweat that one or worse yet, actually watch the NBA. No 5 Guys restaurant will be safe tomorrow.

    Basketball - 502 Philadelphia 76ers -9½ for Game
    Basketball - 518 Golden State Warriors -6½ for Game
    I watched the Warrior game. Your bet ultimately hit by half a point with both teams missing free throws at the end of the game. I would say the bet was 50/50 to cover with 2 minutes left, so I wouldn't exactly call that cashing easy.

    I had a real interesting situation last night. Basically I was watching MNF/Warriors game and saw the Hawks/Trailblazers game was at halftime, and just out of curiosity I checked the game and team totals and I was super surprised how low they were.

    The 2nd half total was 108 and the team totals were 52.5 (Portland) and 55.5 (Atl), which was all absurdly low given both these teams are so porous on defense. There was 135 points total in the first half for reference.

    Anyways, I took both teams for their team total over, and they both hit with 3 minutes left in the game (the 2nd half total was 132, so that bet hit absurdly easily too). It really seems like it was a situation where the books were just letting the algorithm do its thing, and there was no human at the controls making sure the lines made any sense at all, because they didn't. Going forward, probably something to monitor, 2nd half lines of late West Coast games, especially under the radar non national TV games.
    You’re spoiling a good story. Ok yeah, I was aware and cause Fortune Favors the Brave I caught a nice bonus middle.

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    Nonsense aside, you make an interesting point about porous defense.

    I recall a recent Warriors game I was involved in where Warriors closed out the half with like 38. Team total live was 99.5. They finished around 81. So yeah, the live algo might be especially poor with Warriors. I’ll try to keep an eye out.

    I’m not an NBA guy but I have been drawn to Warriors. I wrote it off as just me being entry level Joe Public but maybe the squirrelly lines are the attraction

  4. #31984
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post

    I watched the Warrior game. Your bet ultimately hit by half a point with both teams missing free throws at the end of the game. I would say the bet was 50/50 to cover with 2 minutes left, so I wouldn't exactly call that cashing easy.

    I had a real interesting situation last night. Basically I was watching MNF/Warriors game and saw the Hawks/Trailblazers game was at halftime, and just out of curiosity I checked the game and team totals and I was super surprised how low they were.

    The 2nd half total was 108 and the team totals were 52.5 (Portland) and 55.5 (Atl), which was all absurdly low given both these teams are so porous on defense. There was 135 points total in the first half for reference.

    Anyways, I took both teams for their team total over, and they both hit with 3 minutes left in the game (the 2nd half total was 132, so that bet hit absurdly easily too). It really seems like it was a situation where the books were just letting the algorithm do its thing, and there was no human at the controls making sure the lines made any sense at all, because they didn't. Going forward, probably something to monitor, 2nd half lines of late West Coast games, especially under the radar non national TV games.
    You’re spoiling a good story. Ok yeah, I was aware and cause Fortune Favors the Brave I caught a nice bonus middle.

    Name:  37D19054-D52C-4712-855C-7C179D72EDF4.jpeg
Views: 191
Size:  83.2 KB


    Nonsense aside, you make an interesting point about porous defense.

    I recall a recent Warriors game I was involved in where Warriors closed out the half with like 38. Team total live was 99.5. They finished around 81. So yeah, the live algo might be especially poor with Warriors. I’ll try to keep an eye out.

    I’m not an NBA guy but I have been drawn to Warriors. I wrote it off as just me being entry level Joe Public but maybe the squirrelly lines are the attraction
    I wonder if it is less about the Warriors per se, and more about no humans monitoring the algorithms in these late West Coast games, so not adjusting when the algorithm spits out a number that makes no sense in context.

  5. #31985
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    Generally, teasing NBA has never appealed to me at all. My intuition has always been that teasing 6 points in an NFL game is worth WAY more than 4 in NBA. And I have never read or heard anything to suggest that there is ever a situation where an NBA teaser is close to +EV, unlike NFL.

  6. #31986
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post
    I wonder if it is less about the Warriors per se, and more about no humans monitoring the algorithms in these late West Coast games, so not adjusting when the algorithm spits out a number that makes no sense in context.
    I haven’t thought about the human element in live wagering for a while now.

    NHL definitely isn’t being monitored. The data service is pretty good from the rink. The “delayed penalty” is a case where data doesn’t always match the human eye. It’s exploitable sometimes. I can get into that if you like.

    I need to ask around. That’s a very interesting thought Kalem. I have been presuming there is no human lately. You understand live wagering is a contracted service that is shared by books? There are fewer live wagering companies than there are books. You will see similar errors across books. I found that to be important information to be conscious of.

  7. #31987
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post
    Generally, teasing NBA has never appealed to me at all. My intuition has always been that teasing 6 points in an NFL game is worth WAY more than 4 in NBA. And I have never read or heard anything to suggest that there is ever a situation where an NBA teaser is close to +EV, unlike NFL.
    Of course. I was mocking the multiple levels of wagering stupidity that I was committing with my NBA teaser. Most of my NBA bets are satire. I really bet them but I recognize how dumb the NBA is these days and I’m compelled to mock myself.

    It’s like snapping a rubber band on your wrist if you want a cigarette. I feel the urge to bet NBA and I publicly shame myself.

    Simpdog can tell you it’s a little trick they taught the both of us in GA

  8. #31988
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    Kuemper vs Fleury is the only real data we have today on goalies.

    Need an afternoon covid outbreak or something.

  9. #31989
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    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    Kuemper vs Fleury is the only real data we have today on goalies.

    Need an afternoon covid outbreak or something.
    Wait for it. Wait for it.

    Boston feels trappy. Devils Blackwood (Expected) vs Bruins Ullmark (Confirmed). Not a lot of difference if you plow through the numbers. The reward is great.

    I cannot get that stupid Matt Damon Crypto ad outta my head. Want to use his mockumentary lines constantly. I called it the day Crypto.com did the naming rights deal for Staples

    I did a Salami over and a Salami Away over small. I have been wanting to do this every day for a while now. Need to get it outta my system.

    Also ready to launch a blanket 1P attack. Waiting for goalies
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 01-04-2022 at 10:51 AM.

  10. #31990
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    Matthews rapid tested positive but negative PCR so far....McDavid missing from practice....

    Leafs/Oilers tomorrow. Something to keep an eye on.

    Who is this Logan Thompson for Vegas? He's listed as likely for me.....Very good AHL #s but only 1 nhl game with 2 shots against. No real games.

  11. #31991
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    DJ Chaps why would you red rep a 40 point winner? At least come back and red rep the dallas pick. I have did a good job of avoiding trap plays like dallas the last 3-4 months. I mean why would dallas win/cover?
    -Allergic to the struggle

  12. #31992
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    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    Matthews rapid tested positive but negative PCR so far....McDavid missing from practice....

    Leafs/Oilers tomorrow. Something to keep an eye on.

    Who is this Logan Thompson for Vegas? He's listed as likely for me.....Very good AHL #s but only 1 nhl game with 2 shots against. No real games.
    VGK feels over

    Devils players going down. Bruins is a parlay piece for small money. They are untrustworthy

    K State shitshow is running away. -7 ——> -9 I know you got down last night. Good move.

    A glimpse into a degenerate’s world. I have been relatively inactive - a few burger bets the past few days. Tonight feels like a night of favorites and overs. No hiding

    I haven’t peppered the 1st Period overs. I got a lot out there. I might. The salami should represent a bit of that.

    Bruins could hurt me.

    Fading Jamarr Chase recency. I already have +400 Mac Jones

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    Last edited by Sanlmar; 01-04-2022 at 01:31 PM.

  13. #31993
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    All LSU has left is a touch of pride. Tonight they lose that. Laying the points for a decent amount
    -Allergic to the struggle

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    ESPN is awful, They talk to the coach for 20 minutes right when the game is going on, Who gives a fuck, Talk to him at halftime, A ton of money bet across the world on a lone Tuesday football game. No one cares about what the incoming coach has to say atm
    Last edited by 4BET; 01-04-2022 at 07:16 PM. Reason: To much swearing
    -Allergic to the struggle

  15. #31995
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4BET View Post
    ESPN is awful
    Nobody is gonna argue. I just have to say that I absolutely love the Mannings on ESPN2 on MNF. It’s pretty much now appointment television. Who the hell thought of that at ESPN?

    Now ESPN+ let’s you tune in to the local broadcast for either team in an NHL game. I love that. I’m not interested in 1st level non partisan blathering. If I have a bet on a game I want to hear someone similarly vested. If I want to hear now I’m gonna get fucked it’s a quick channel change.

    Do the same thing for college sports. That would be awesome.

    Disney isn’t gonna have a clue.

    I actually haven’t watched more than a couple minutes of K State LSU. That last score might engage me a bit. This was kind of an automatic paycheck.

     
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      4BET: Agree Mannings are great

  16. #31996
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by 4BET View Post
    ESPN is awful
    Nobody is gonna argue. I just have to say that I absolutely love the Mannings on ESPN2 on MNF. It’s pretty much now appointment television. Who the hell thought of that at ESPN?

    Now ESPN+ let’s you tune in to the local broadcast for either team in an NHL game. I love that. I’m not interested in 1st level non partisan blathering. If I have a bet on a game I want to hear someone similarly vested. If I want to hear now I’m gonna get fucked it’s a quick channel change.

    Do the same thing for college sports. That would be awesome.

    Disney isn’t gonna have a clue.

    I actually haven’t watched more than a couple minutes of K State LSU. That last score might engage me a bit. This was kind of an automatic paycheck.
    I should have watched the Manning cast, but never did. I am a creature of habit, and when I get home from work on Mondays, the controller automatically goes to 206 (ESPN on DirecTV) and stays there. And then I get to spend 3 hours listening to Brian Griese try to put a positive spin on the constant putrid QB play.

  17. #31997
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    I don’t know if I have anything to work with for the Overnight Shit Show. Thin slate.

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      JeffDime: A lot of green there San

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    Should have posted earlier.....McDavid is out for sure and Matthews is playing.

    What started out as a -150ish line for Leafs is now -290 or worse.


    Draisaitl over 3.5 shots +110.

    Leafs -0.5 first period +120

    Also don't mind Matthews goal (anytime) -140ish.

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    Most if not all the experts are fading him. I’m not. I’ll update bankroll later.

    Sentry Tournament of Champions-

    1K - Sam Burns to win 18-1.

    $333 - Sam Burns first round leader 20-1.

    These are the going prices in most places.

    GL.

     
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      country978: i only just now noticed you have a utube. I subscribed

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    @country. Appreciate the sub. Just to let you know I made some videos regarding Christopher Mitchell. I have no editing or technical skills. Just this piehole and a photo album I scroll through. Hoping that changes soon. Just setting the bar as low as possible.

    Happening New Year to you. Hoping for a good 2022 for all of us.

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