*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[OSA]

Forgot to post this.

First time, in 20 years, I have ever bet on the Red Sox to win in ANY game

They say bet with your head not your heart

Baby Steps

You have no idea what I’ve have been going through.

I’m on them too.

Was gonna lay a thou on this series but I couldnt have myself even say the words.

Figure I just throw 200 on Sale


Need another run to cover 2nd bet

[Daly]

Baby Steps

You have no idea what I’ve have been going through.

I’m on them too.

Was gonna lay a thou on this series but I couldnt have myself even say the words.

Figure I just throw 200 on Sale


Need another run to cover 2nd bet

Welcome aboard Onstep.

Also I’ve said numerous times in this thread that I’ve met a lot of successful betters with a lot of different angles. Never once have I met anyone who has consistently made money on Run/Puck lines.

[Sanlmar]

Baby Steps

You have no idea what I’ve have been going through.

I’m on them too.

Was gonna lay a thou on this series but I couldnt have myself even say the words.

Figure I just throw 200 on Sale


Need another run to cover 2nd bet

There is always some feel good story in World Series. The little guy Altuve. Young rookies

Absolutely nothing likeable about either of these top two mega dollar outfits. It’s like cheering for Dick Cheney

Just take the money. They do

[chinamaniac]

I don't bet totals or original lines . That's so 90's . I bet in game and only during certain situational occurrences. It's your money and sanity . I'm just being entertained

Well, I'm not going to switch to betting overs, but I will concede that something is very different this season... probably because of the 14-second offensive rebound clock, and perhaps the general pace and defensive focus has also changed. Maybe it will resolve itself after a few weeks (at least the pace/defense), and perhaps it won't.

In the meantime, I will reevaluate my strategy, as the 2017-18 unders strategy I was using has been a big failure this year. Going to lose this one, and honestly deserved to lose yesterday. So that means a lucky/undeserved win and 3 bad losses.

All good things come to an end, though, and sportsbetting is an ever-evolving animal.

I disagree that unders are '90s. I definitely had something going with them last year, as well as this year with MLB. But in 2018-19 NBA, I need to redo the strategy, apparently.

Theres nothing wrong with betting unders or overs or anything for that matter. If a play has value it has value.

As far as things changing from early last year to this year something may be different that could be going against how you pick plays. But I wouldn't get too far ahead of yourself trying to figure that out after a handful of plays but you should always comb your data to see if you messed up or if you notice a trend.

But also consider your hot run to start last year could have just been you enjoying the right side of variance (which I would lean towards because of the tiny sample size).

While it is entirely possible that run was skill, without a huge sample tracked you will never know.

My question for you is this, let's assume you have a method that really works and you start crushing the totals again early this season. How do you know the timeline of when your method will stop working?

[OSA]

These Red Sox hitters go after the high fastballs like I go after twinks who need pot at festivals

[lol wow]

me and my well heeled mexican neighbors just all yelled god dammit in unison

[OSA]

Baruch Hashem.

Whoever that shmuck was, thanks for that.



Has there been an inning where the Red Sox havent had a RISP?

[lol wow]

calm down with ur jew code

[Sam Snead]

i swear you Skat idiots are like 4 people - all probably the same.

Sonatine-Gary, Gray, And Grary?

[lol wow]

my birth name is gary sanzobal sanchez the 14th

[OSA]

my birth name is gary sanzobal sanchez the 14th

[lol wow]

dakota plays also

[Sam Snead]

dakota plays also

What does she play with?

[OSA]

dakota plays also

What does she play with?

Your son, after he has bottomed for me.

Don't get cute.

[Sanlmar]

I disagree that unders are '90s. I definitely had something going with them last year, as well as this year with MLB. But in 2018-19 NBA, I need to redo the strategy, apparently.

I think I heard at this point last season 6 teams averaged 110 points or more. This season it’s 20 teams.

Someone look up Totals wins/losses ytd.

[simpdog]

I disagree that unders are '90s. I definitely had something going with them last year, as well as this year with MLB. But in 2018-19 NBA, I need to redo the strategy, apparently.

I think I heard at this point last season 6 teams averaged 110 points or more. This season it’s 20 teams.

Someone look up Totals wins/losses ytd.

66-36 overall for all teams Overs.

[ErickAA]

I disagree that unders are '90s. I definitely had something going with them last year, as well as this year with MLB. But in 2018-19 NBA, I need to redo the strategy, apparently.

I think I heard at this point last season 6 teams averaged 110 points or more. This season it’s 20 teams.

Someone look up Totals wins/losses ytd.

I have blindly bet every laker game over so far and have gone 3-0 without a sweat. However, I looked at the line of 239 today and I took some pause. That is a damn high line. Most of the other lines today are in the high 220s or 230s. With these inflated lines Is this the day the unders clean up?

[chinamaniac]

I think I heard at this point last season 6 teams averaged 110 points or more. This season it’s 20 teams.

Someone look up Totals wins/losses ytd.

I have blindly bet every laker game over so far and have gone 3-0 without a sweat. However, I looked at the line of 239 today and I took some pause. That is a damn high line. Most of the other lines today are in the high 220s or 230s. With these inflated lines Is this the day the unders clean up?

Might be, might not be, books will keep adjusting

[OSA]

Price gonna Price tonight?

I mean if Sale gave up 4 then he has to give up like 14.

I think the bet here is Red Sox for the game, but the Dodgers the first 5 innings.

[ErickAA]

Price gonna Price tonight?

I mean if Sale gave up 4 then he has to give up like 14.

I think the bet here is Red Sox for the game, but the Dodgers the first 5 innings.

I donno how much you watch dodgers, but there MO isn’t for middle relievers to give up runs in close games. Yesterday was an anomaly. Most of the time the middle relief in close games is good and Jansen is the one who can be shaky in the 9th, although he hasn’t been lately. I am not sure that is a very good game script and you might be assuming because something happened once it is likely to happen again, when it isn’t.