*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[JeffDime]

LPGA odds are absurd this week. Nelly & Lydia with a ridiculous gap to everyone else. Weird format.

Dubai is a decision to ship or not to ship. I haven’t made the decision. Wouldn’t be a longshot, that much I know.

As for the PGA, I got three guys in mind to have big years. None of them are playing this week. The PGA tour is so deep with talent that it may be more of a pick certain good spots approach for now, rather than play every week.

There is a player I look to have a big year on the LPGA tour I will be playing, but I think my main focus will by the European Tour. This is not a normal time for them with a bunch of PGA players in the mix.

I’m not totally certain how I will proceed. Laying off last week saved me money. In fact Henley was a guy I gave considerable thought to at 35-1. I would prob be in a padded room if I shipped it on him and took that beat. Still a little sore from the Morikawa debacle in the Bahamas. Personally, that would of considerably helped the bankroll and the year end total.

I’ll keep everyone posted. But I’m just being honest about my thought process. I want to come to this thread with value and if I’m not certain myself than it would be wrong for me to just fire away on here.

[BCR]

Cavs -3

[JeffDime]

Abu Dabi Euro - 2k Morikawa +700. ( Can get +750 on ceasers app but NY payment processes sucks).

LPGA Hilton - 2K Lydia Ko +450 (For the pain)

GL. Up about 14K since starting this. Try to make make a pretty template later. But had to get these in. Abu Dabi starts in a few hours. Collin needs redemption.

[Sanlmar]

I guess sports betting is so big now that putting all this out there isn’t as big of a deal as it would of been years ago. These guys have all made a bunch of dough and it’s great for Spencer. Makes up for his bed shit on the Mikki vids, which he does call back to at the end of the video.

These guys seem very comfortable and with multiple million dollar balance personal bank accounts were ready to show how they have been doing it. I do think it’s good that they covered how the apps skirt the “banning” law by limiting accounts to $1 bets.

I am sure some guys are going to feel like this is basically breaking code. I don’t think so. Most people know getting/beating the line consistently and in large volume is the way to win long term. I think showing logistically how they are doing it specifically in Colorado right now may have some negative consequences for the bettors. But all and all, it’s well done.

Also, that million the guy just binked in a DFS contest probably helped them decide it was a good time to call Spencer.

$50 burner phones. How does that help in a legal jurisdiction with KYC. Definitely works off shore

New jurisdictions are sloppy and focused on new accounts. That was fun but nobody is originating their own lines except the independents like Circa and SouthPoint and the offshores. I don’t understand why they were in Colorado except they weren’t gonna get shut off cause the state was too new.

[Sanlmar]

The arc of sports wagering has mirrored the arc of poker & day trading.

I used to day trade successfully. A little candlestick chart theory and Fibonacci math and I was a rocket scientist. I did it successfully for a long time. Analytics, access to free or cheap information and multitudes of sharp opinions has marginalized any advantage I once had. It’s to the point that social media scraping is yet another level of gamesmanship. I have a #2 pencil.

Early 2000’s poker was similar. Learn hand rankings and some basic probability and you could have fun and make money. HUDs, bots and fresh analytics have drained the life out of the game unless you wanna play live and pay healthy rake for that privilege.

Sports wagering in the past year has become a completely different animal too. Hockey and tennis were easy money. People didn’t even know how to keep score in tennis and you could not watch it very easily. Few people were doing any work on platforms like Twitter or Discord. Now ESPN+ delivers 1000’s of hours of live Australian Open programming. Analytics and data that never existed is exploding into existence this year.

In hockey, as an example, there are regular kids doing Shots on Goal (SOG props) kitchen table analysis that is really quite complete. I’m blown away.

There are guys doing 1st period hockey work today that don’t even know about the 2019 1P over bonanza. Too far back. I’m the Grampa telling them about life in 2019. I’m not kidding. Kids are crushing it and don’t care about 2 years ago.

Sure you can win a hand of poker or place an occasional winning pick but if you want to make it a profitable hobby over time a lot is gonna be asked of you and the edges are getting mighty slim.

Technology has harvested all the low hanging fruit and snipped the low branches so the fruit will never grow back.

I still find tennis the sloppiest lines. You can literally arbitrage tennis between books - a very old fashioned practice. Books are still slow to adjust their hockey models too. There is still value but it’s closing fast

Australian Open is in full swing. I have really fond memories of live wagering and real time chat with GBCP, badguy, Krypt etc. Page after page in the middle of the night.

It was always about the comraderie. Stuff like that is over. Great memories.

I think JeffDime enjoys the mechanics of sports wagering as I do. He strikes me as having a really interesting personal wagering story. His mistake was forfeiting his anonymity.

[Sanlmar]

Oh, tennis has lots and lots of -400 and above ML!

[Daly]

I guess sports betting is so big now that putting all this out there isn’t as big of a deal as it would of been years ago. These guys have all made a bunch of dough and it’s great for Spencer. Makes up for his bed shit on the Mikki vids, which he does call back to at the end of the video.

These guys seem very comfortable and with multiple million dollar balance personal bank accounts were ready to show how they have been doing it. I do think it’s good that they covered how the apps skirt the “banning” law by limiting accounts to $1 bets.

I am sure some guys are going to feel like this is basically breaking code. I don’t think so. Most people know getting/beating the line consistently and in large volume is the way to win long term. I think showing logistically how they are doing it specifically in Colorado right now may have some negative consequences for the bettors. But all and all, it’s well done.

Also, that million the guy just binked in a DFS contest probably helped them decide it was a good time to call Spencer.

Phenomenal share. Really surprised they gave him access to do this story.

The next layer of the story is the PPH network. Obv they showed him making bets at MGM and Fanduel….. but All those phones they were using…. Those were also to make bets through a network of local books. That’s a full time job in its self.


The story about paying someone to go to the game so they could front run the free throws made in game bets killed me

[Daly]

Abu Dabi Euro - 2k Morikawa +700. ( Can get +750 on ceasers app but NY payment processes sucks).

LPGA Hilton - 2K Lydia Ko +450 (For the pain)

GL. Up about 14K since starting this. Try to make make a pretty template later. But had to get these in. Abu Dabi starts in a few hours. Collin needs redemption.

I passed on the Euro but did make a small bet on Pieter +900 this morning. If someone’s going to run down Hovland I feel like it will be him or Hatton.

I put the same small bet ok Ko as well.

For the Amex I feel awful not backing my boy Si Woo who cashed for us at 50-1 last year. I went with Knox +10000, Gooch +2500 and Ancer +2800.

Got a bunch of matchups going all over the world / the euros started very well. Got Si Woo over Noren and faded Tringale at the prices offered.

Glgl

[Daly]

If you do have the ability to bet Rham first round leader at +550 I think it’s worth a stab. It should only be for the runners who are teeing off on the one of three courses they are playing on.

Only other top runners are Finau and maybe Zal and Bez. Anything’s possible but I think if they played day 1 six times he ends up in first 2 of them.

[JeffDime]

If you do have the ability to bet Rham first round leader at +550 I think it’s worth a stab. It should only be for the runners who are teeing off on the one of three courses they are playing on.

Only other top runners are Finau and maybe Zal and Bez. Anything’s possible but I think if they played day 1 six times he ends up in first 2 of them.

Had the same feeling this morning. Big gamble. GL us. We got to fade Cantlay too. But +800 was the right price imho.

[JeffDime]

$50 burner phones. How does that help in a legal jurisdiction with KYC. Definitely works off shore

New jurisdictions are sloppy and focused on new accounts. That was fun but nobody is originating their own lines except the independents like Circa and SouthPoint and the offshores. I don’t understand why they were in Colorado except they weren’t gonna get shut off cause the state was too new.

The reason the detail was lacking with the phones is clearly, for the most part, they are getting other people in the area (friends, relatives, any human they can trust etc) to sign up for accounts and register the phones under their name. They then get some kind of compensation for letting these guys fire away.

The guys running the operation will quickly be limited under their names on most apps. That is the part they showed that I thought could be problematic. They certainly weren’t going to say on camera “we are betting on others behalf”. But of course they were.

[simpdog]

$50 burner phones. How does that help in a legal jurisdiction with KYC. Definitely works off shore

New jurisdictions are sloppy and focused on new accounts. That was fun but nobody is originating their own lines except the independents like Circa and SouthPoint and the offshores. I don’t understand why they were in Colorado except they weren’t gonna get shut off cause the state was too new.

The reason the detail was lacking with the phones is clearly, for the most part, they are getting other people in the area (friends, relatives, any human they can trust etc) to sign up for accounts and register the phones under their name. They then get some kind of compensation for letting these guys fire away.

The guys running the operation will quickly be limited under their names on most apps. That is the part they showed that I thought could be problematic. They certainly weren’t going to say on camera we are betting on others behalf. But of course they were.

On the legal sites are you only able to deposit via fiat? I would think they would run out of friends/family members quick that would trust them with their name/credit card info?

Also in order to withdrawal you need to jump through some hoops so their is also a huge trust barrier for cashing out?

If you can transfer in/out crypto then perhaps it anonymizes it enough + allows for the betting group to process all the funds and not worry.

[Sanlmar]

The story about paying someone to go to the game so they could front run the free throws made in game bets killed me

This is called court siding in tennis. Was an epidemic live wagering problem for books. Still happens

I loved the radio vs video feed story

[JeffDime]

Just a brutal day and having Lydia three putt the last two holes for bogey…looks like a brutal week. Hopefully I posted the bets late enough not to may people tailed. Just sucks when something starts to turn around after a tough day and then it goes back to shit at the end. The double gut punch sucks. Think I’ll have to take my lumps this week.

[JeffDime]

@JoeD. Having fun following Cantlay around? This can’t be real right? The Par on 2 must be a typo.



Anyways, Rahm started off too slow to have a shot at first round leader anyways. You may see history out there.

[Daly]

The reason the detail was lacking with the phones is clearly, for the most part, they are getting other people in the area (friends, relatives, any human they can trust etc) to sign up for accounts and register the phones under their name. They then get some kind of compensation for letting these guys fire away.

The guys running the operation will quickly be limited under their names on most apps. That is the part they showed that I thought could be problematic. They certainly weren’t going to say on camera we are betting on others behalf. But of course they were.

On the legal sites are you only able to deposit via fiat? I would think they would run out of friends/family members quick that would trust them with their name/credit card info?

Also in order to withdrawal you need to jump through some hoops so their is also a huge trust barrier for cashing out?

If you can transfer in/out crypto then perhaps it anonymizes it enough + allows for the betting group to process all the funds and not worry.

Like i mentioned they could do a two hour documentary on how these guys are getting and maintaining accounts. Believe it or not the most “important” guy in that video wasn’t the guys making the plays. It was the operations guy at the start who was in charge of operationally getting plays in.

There are guys who are very very well paid who are actively getting people verified at DK or FD as new VIP’s with whale limits to then use as a front to send in plays. It’s bordering on fraud in some respects but the guy with the account is obviously cut in so it can be spun as he is buying his plays for a fee.

99% of the people bet Mahomes -7 every Sunday and send in $100-$250 and couldn’t be happier. The masses are who these companies want. DK is spending over 100K a minute on new clients…. As I like to say sports due to legalization is back to poker in 2003.

The 1% that treat this as a business are going to retire in a few years. Just like poker took a huge hit after Black Friday the sports plunge is coming. Thankfully not for a few more years.

[Daly]

- / Tournament / Outright Winner / Kyoung-Hoon Lee +2695
Golf / PGA Tour The American Express

Have a feeling I won’t regret this one come Sunday…..

[Sanlmar]

On the legal sites are you only able to deposit via fiat? I would think they would run out of friends/family members quick that would trust them with their name/credit card info?

Also in order to withdrawal you need to jump through some hoops so their is also a huge trust barrier for cashing out?

If you can transfer in/out crypto then perhaps it anonymizes it enough + allows for the betting group to process all the funds and not worry.

Like i mentioned they could do a two hour documentary on how these guys are getting and maintaining accounts. Believe it or not the most “important” guy in that video wasn’t the guys making the plays. It was the operations guy at the start who was in charge of operationally getting plays in.

There are guys who are very very well paid who are actively getting people verified at DK or FD as new VIP’s with whale limits to then use as a front to send in plays. It’s bordering on fraud in some respects but the guy with the account is obviously cut in so it can be spun as he is buying his plays for a fee.

99% of the people bet Mahomes -7 every Sunday and send in $100-$250 and couldn’t be happier. The masses are who these companies want. DK is spending over 100K a minute on new clients…. As I like to say sports due to legalization is back to poker in 2003.

The 1% that treat this as a business are going to retire in a few years. Just like poker took a huge hit after Black Friday the sports plunge is coming. Thankfully not for a few more years.

The books are 11:10 and always get the best of it. It’s the law of large numbers getting raked. It’s not a sharp vs square story at all.

The 11:10 is ancient history but it’s illustrative of the basic business. Props, parlays and teasers rake…. omg, these legal books should be brought to court.

The 1% are the ones who are monetizing the wagering social media, entertainment and I guess tout kinda stuff. Discords charging a monthly subscription is my latest discovery.

You think people don’t have phones? Just betting the home team? Fantasy and red zone and all that don’t exist? The public is thirsty for news and data. The 1% will kill it trying to satisfy that thirst.

btw check out indeed or whatever and data analytics and other quant listings at these new books. Those kids are gonna kill it.

[Sanlmar]

There are guys building followings on discords and the like. Not even charging for the forum. They are parlaying their members numbers into deals or partnerships with MGM or DK etc. The book puts the organizers/entertainers/touts on the payroll and push new customer sign up bonuses etc.

Maybe they educate the the noobs a bit with free picks and forum discussion. Whet their appetite. Wind them up and then give ‘em a promo code.


That’s the 1%.

[Daly]

Like i mentioned they could do a two hour documentary on how these guys are getting and maintaining accounts. Believe it or not the most “important” guy in that video wasn’t the guys making the plays. It was the operations guy at the start who was in charge of operationally getting plays in.

There are guys who are very very well paid who are actively getting people verified at DK or FD as new VIP’s with whale limits to then use as a front to send in plays. It’s bordering on fraud in some respects but the guy with the account is obviously cut in so it can be spun as he is buying his plays for a fee.

99% of the people bet Mahomes -7 every Sunday and send in $100-$250 and couldn’t be happier. The masses are who these companies want. DK is spending over 100K a minute on new clients…. As I like to say sports due to legalization is back to poker in 2003.

The 1% that treat this as a business are going to retire in a few years. Just like poker took a huge hit after Black Friday the sports plunge is coming. Thankfully not for a few more years.

The books are 11:10 and always get the best of it. It’s the law of large numbers getting raked. It’s not a sharp vs square story at all.

The 11:10 is ancient history but it’s illustrative of the basic business. Props, parlays and teasers rake…. omg, these legal books should be brought to court.

The 1% are the ones who are monetizing the wagering social media, entertainment and I guess tout kinda stuff. Discords charging a monthly subscription is my latest discovery.

You think people don’t have phones? Just betting the home team? Fantasy and red zone and all that don’t exist? The public is thirsty for news and data. The 1% will kill it trying to satisfy that thirst.

btw check out indeed or whatever and data analytics and other quant listings at these new books. Those kids are gonna kill it.

Obviously there is money playing the don't. Taking the 11/10 is always going to be profitable for 99%

But there is money in laying the 11/10 when you winning over 54.5% of the time. There is that.