Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #22961
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Boston vs Brooklyn - Under 219 (Tatum & Walker out)
    Kemba is playing on a minutes limit FWIW.

  2. #22962
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Boston vs Brooklyn - Under 219 (Tatum & Walker out)
    Kemba is playing on a minutes limit FWIW.
    I got info he was out. Great.

    This one looked like a lock.

    151 after 3 quarters. Then 85 (!!) in the 4th.

    Plus OT.

    Wow

  3. #22963
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    Columbus/Calgary over 5.5 -125

     
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      GambleBotsChafedPenis: LFG Rep
      
      Sanlmar: LFG II
      
      DirtyErnie: LFG part deux: The Reboot

  4. #22964
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Boston at Cleveland - Under 215.5 (Walker, Garland, Drummond out)

    Orlando +6.5 at Miami

    Boston starting very shortly

  5. #22965
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    One more.

    The fail Knicks' 2-game win streak is about to end.

    Utah -9 at New York

  6. #22966
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    BIG EAST TOURNAMENT LUNCH MONEY BET:

    this tourney is wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiide open this year...it wouldn't surprise me if any team outside of DePaul won the thing...

    with that being said I really like the price on SETON HALL +400...I have no clue why they are the third favorite to win the thing...they are a bunch of fucking dawgs, old school big east players...as a nova fan I hate fucking playing these guys and am gonna hate watching the NOVA/HALL game that starts in an hour...

    myles powell is one of the best players in the nation, tough as shit...one of those kids that can will his team to victory...

    an addendum to this...if you like to fire on live dogs, PROVIDENCE at +1000 isn't a terrible bet...they started off like shit, but man have they been good in big east play lately...post February 1 they've beaten 5 top 25 teams to go from waaaaaaaaaaaay out of the tourney to most likely in...

  7. #22967
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Only 16 points in the final minute of an 8-point game with Boston, fucking my under, making the total 218.

    Wow. Thought that was almost a lock given the 8-point difference and the fact that the total of 202 with 1 minute to go meant my 215.5 was safe.

    Nope.


  8. #22968
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Aannnnnnnd the Jazz had a 20 point lead with 6 min left, let it slip down, were up 13 with the ball with 36 seconds left, and somehow only won by 8.

    Including choosing not to hold the ball in their final possession, missing a dumb 3, and letting NY score a trash basket with 1 second left.

    I really run as bad as verminaard with this shit.

  9. #22969
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Seriously guys, I should've gone 3-0 here and instead went 1-2.

    Look at how absolutely awful I ran in those two I lost. Both were like a 90%+ favorite to win at the very end. I had to fade 14 points in the final minute in an 8-point game in one, and had to fade a 5-point comeback when my team had the ball in a blowout with 36 seconds left (that one had to be like 99% to win).


  10. #22970
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    Columbus/Calgary over 5.5 -125. L 5 goals
    only had 2 penalties in 60 mins +OT? You can’t handicap that.

    North Americans can’t get enough penalties. The NHL has endeavored to keep up. This game was unusual. No penalties = no power plays. Still close Simp. You weren’t wrong.


    Preseason MLB and I am officially open for business. The 1000 point swings and day baseball. Lord help us.

    There were 11 games today and the books hung double digit totals on 9 of them.

    Now they offer live wagering on preseason baseball. You think they have an accurate algorithm for preseason? Impossible son. If you have the time it offers great potential for profit. You got the madness in the big casino currently and I only have 4 screens and half a brain.

    February is the worst month in sports. Our long national suffering is behind us. I hope.

     
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      simpdog: Great summary. Not going to win on 2 penalties.

  11. #22971
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Sanlmar what is your approach with preseason baseball?

    I find it impossible to handicap because it's so unpredictable regarding who will play, and for how long.

    The games are also full of scrubs with zero point zero chance of making MLB teams this year, and I hate to rest my fortunes on their shoulders.

  12. #22972
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Sanlmar what is your approach with preseason baseball?

    I find it impossible to handicap because it's so unpredictable regarding who will play, and for how long.

    The games are also full of scrubs with zero point zero chance of making MLB teams this year, and I hate to rest my fortunes on their shoulders.
    Random thoughts

    The best value is the absurdity of the books to offer live wagering. Let’s start there.

    The way preflop lines are tethered to live despite a dramatic turn of information.

    Certain managers close to game time will tell the local announcers or press exactly what he wants to accomplish that day.

    The announcers in certain markets are informed and quite clearly tell you what the pitcher is trying to accomplish.

    A veteran is working on his slider. He doesn’t care if it gets hit.
    A kid is playing for a spot. He’s serious. Google rotoworld as a start. Scouting reports.

    Kid or veteran is laboring but the manager is gonna leave him out there for 2 innings for the work. Live wagering.

    Trevor Bauer is on the mound. You know I love the wackjob. He’s signaling his pitch with his glove like he’s in the bullpen. Just being a smartass and a god.

    It’s a job. It takes time and sometimes there is no action. But you are also gathering huge info for the start of season when the best MLB money is made

  13. #22973
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    Does anyone have props on Steph Curry up yet?

    First game back tonight vs the Raptors.

  14. #22974
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    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    Does anyone have props on Steph Curry up yet?

    First game back tonight vs the Raptors.
    Maybe value fading GSW?

  15. #22975
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    Does anyone have props on Steph Curry up yet?

    First game back tonight vs the Raptors.
    Maybe value fading GSW?
    Toronto has 3 starters who are legitimately Q and is still a 8.5 pt favorite. The Warriors being bad tonight, even with Curry back, is already built into the line.

  16. #22976
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    Maybe warriors 1q +2.5 is a good play then. Figure warriors want to start out strong with Steph back in and maybe raptors don't adjust til later in the game.

  17. #22977
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Wichita State vs Memphis -2 (-110)

    Any NCAAB Matos?

  18. #22978
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Wichita State vs Memphis -2 (-110)

    Any NCAAB Matos?
    Haven't picked any college games yet today... Not sure on this one at all. They have moved down to 1.5 for me

  19. #22979
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    I've been looking into spring training as well. I don't have live betting available to me but there has to be some good spots. I read that just going with road dogs vs playoff teams on the run line has been 370-171 from 2013-2018. Maybe combining that with some more insight can lead to big wins. https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/ml...ategy-tip-2019

  20. #22980
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    clippers -1 (-110)

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