*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[gut]

Ok so here is my big bright idea. In golf there is this general concept “horses for courses”. You know the scene in Hoosiers where Gene Hackman breaks out the tape measure and says this court is the exact same as back home in French Lick? Yeah well that’s not Golf. Playing UK golf with small fairways and rough as tall as your knees is much different than playing a mammoth course in the side of a mountain like Augusta which in turn is different than playing on a course next to a ocean with 35 MPH winds. There are big differences between designers and how they lay out holes. Muirfield is “Jacks Place”, as in the golden bear Jack Nicklaus.

Player x.......”best finish on tour came earlier this year at PGA National when he was second in the Honda, his second best finish on tour came when he was fifth at the Nicklaus designed Glen Abbey at the RBC Canadian Open and his third best ever finish on tour came when 12th at the 2020 Barracuda on the Nicklaus designed Tahoe Mt Club now being used for the event.”

Player X is Brandon Hagy

Now I could be dead right about this and that would make his 300-1 price one fucking hell of a bargain. Unfortunately he still would have to beat 100 of the worlds best to realize that equity. It’s admittedly a fucking tall task.

But..... how about top 10? As the quote above highlights he’s done it a few times already or came real god damn close.

Brandon Hagy Top 10 +5000 Draftkings, +4000 Fanduel and +3500 on local skins is my play of the week.

I almost never bet golf (just dont follow it enough) but I'll tail this one.

Got it at +4000 on my book, also did a smaller bet on top 20 finish at +1600

[Dan Druff]

I can't find Hagy on any of my online books.

Guess he's too much of a longshot?

[Daly]

I can't find Hagy on any of my online books.

Guess he's too much of a longshot?

He’s too far down the list to be on some sites. He’s not posted at BOL as an example, which is very disappointing.

[JeffDime]

Last week was real tough. Stricker coming in on Sunday at -225 and just totally shitting the bed. J Ko just getting squashed on Friday. Then to see Kyle Larson winning easily after 3 consecutive second places. Fucking brutal. I put in some chasing bets tbh.

I got some money on JT and J Ko. JT you can get at 12-1 or so. He played great once again yesterday tee to green but missed tons of short putts. Lost over 2 full stokes to the field. Think he is decent value here.

J Ko is really about the wrist. I know the visual of her hitting the ball in the parking lot last week wasn’t great. But at that point she had to swing for the flags to get back in that match. A course where pars are good is perfect for her. Can get her close to 10-1 live. Her wrist is the concern.

So these bets are basically chasey for me, but after Day 1 I feel as if they are both priced well enough to be worth a few bucks. I wouldn’t post it if I didn’t feel that way.

As for the Euro Tour I think this will be my last dance with Valimaki. He seems to have hit the skids. This is a weird 54 hole tournament. Can get him at 50-1. Don’t want to miss it if he pulls the rabbit out the hat. If he plays shitty here, I think it will be time to move on from him. Price is right though.

[JeffDime]

Just to clarify at the time of this post the prices are pretty stagnant because none of the three are playing until later.

PGA The Memorial - Justin Thomas Live +1200

LPGA Women’s Open - Jin Young Ko Live +1000

Euro Porsche Open - Sami Valimaki +5000

Just one would be nice.

[matos]

I haven't been doing too much sports lately but put together this 6 teamer parlay lotto ticket yesterday and had a nice little score.

[gut]

Ok so here is my big bright idea. In golf there is this general concept “horses for courses”. You know the scene in Hoosiers where Gene Hackman breaks out the tape measure and says this court is the exact same as back home in French Lick? Yeah well that’s not Golf. Playing UK golf with small fairways and rough as tall as your knees is much different than playing a mammoth course in the side of a mountain like Augusta which in turn is different than playing on a course next to a ocean with 35 MPH winds. There are big differences between designers and how they lay out holes. Muirfield is “Jacks Place”, as in the golden bear Jack Nicklaus.

Player x.......”best finish on tour came earlier this year at PGA National when he was second in the Honda, his second best finish on tour came when he was fifth at the Nicklaus designed Glen Abbey at the RBC Canadian Open and his third best ever finish on tour came when 12th at the 2020 Barracuda on the Nicklaus designed Tahoe Mt Club now being used for the event.”

Player X is Brandon Hagy

Now I could be dead right about this and that would make his 300-1 price one fucking hell of a bargain. Unfortunately he still would have to beat 100 of the worlds best to realize that equity. It’s admittedly a fucking tall task.

But..... how about top 10? As the quote above highlights he’s done it a few times already or came real god damn close.

Brandon Hagy Top 10 +5000 Draftkings, +4000 Fanduel and +3500 on local skins is my play of the week.

I almost never bet golf (just dont follow it enough) but I'll tail this one.

Got it at +4000 on my book, also did a smaller bet on top 20 finish at +1600

Our horse was making up some ground until the bogey and then double bogey.

[Sanlmar]

Dodgers fraud guy back in the house.

Spin rates back in the news and you saw a some action taken yesterday on the field. Hats being removed at the request of umps etc.

poke around ... it’s out there again.

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/twt/status/1400082032441528320

You want to get out in front of rising totals or wait for confirmation? It’s a lifestyle choice. Many people don’t need money to be happy.

Tonight we have Dodgers playoff foe Ian Anderson on the hill. He of the incredible spin rate. Check any list you like for 4 seam spin or whatever.

Facing him is Urias and I am not going to explain Urias to you again. Check your notes. I am aware Urias is a lefty and Braves don’t do well vs lefties typically. Nevertheless if Urias tries his pathetic fastball tonight it’s bombs away.

Total over 8.5 and I’m over RHE.

If you don’t believe me or you don’t use sunscreen on your balls then you can bank on the rotten bullpens later.

The Bellinger grand slam last outing was really something. I had Dodgers team total over 4.5 and I believe it was over in the 1st inning. Dodgers errors should help with the E in RHE too. America wants Lux at short not Taylor.

Mangia baby.

[NickyPipes]

Rays -125
Marlins EVEN
STL -140
Nats +105
Indians EVEN

Dallas Mavs +2.5

WPG JETS -115

Friday night is action night baby!

[Dan Druff]

JSEARLES WELCH'S SPECIAL

Kansas City (Keller) -131 vs. Minnesota (Shoemaker)
KC/Min Under 9.5 -110


Starting at 5:10 PT

[Dan Druff]

Last minute:

Detroit (Turnbull) +139 at White Sox (Keuchel)

[JeffDime]

Just to clarify at the time of this post the prices are pretty stagnant because none of the three are playing until later.

PGA The Memorial - Justin Thomas Live +1200

LPGA Women’s Open - Jin Young Ko Live +1000

Euro Porsche Open - Sami Valimaki +5000

Just one would be nice.

I’m done. 2 lip outs and 5 burnt edges and then 4 strokes from 20 feet for a double. Sorry to anyone tailing it. It’s just not working out. Idk. Sami I could use a gift.

[Dan Druff]

JSEARLES WELCH'S SPECIAL

Kansas City (Keller) -131 vs. Minnesota (Shoemaker)
KC/Min Under 9.5 -110


Starting at 5:10 PT

9-0 KC in the 2nd. In hindsight, the under wasn't the best idea.

[Dan Druff]

It's not common that I can claim results on 3 bets in the middlle of the games, but I can safely do so here.

KC - WIN
KC under - LOSS
Detroit - LOSS

[Dan Druff]

Whoa whoa whoa hold on their partner

Schoop popped off a 3-run blast after a sac fly, and we're seeing a 7-2 game now 7-6.

Can the awful Tigers actually erase a 5-run 7th inning deficit and win? Probably not, but they're getting close.

[Sanlmar]

Total over 8.5 and I’m over RHE.

If you don’t believe me or you don’t use sunscreen on your balls then you can bank on the rotten bullpens later.

2-0

Mookie’s run made it 27 RHE

Dodgers béisbol whisperer


I was happy with that rally too Druff

Baseball - 975 Detroit Tigers team total over 3½ -115 for Game

You’ve created a RHE monster Druff

[Dan Druff]

Sadly the Tigers just teased me. From 7-2 down, to 8-7 up, to 8-8, to having 1st and 2nd in the top of the 9th inning, to losing in the bottom of the 9th 9-8.

I just can't get any of these comebacks to ever hold. I was actually doing fairly well in MLB recently before today.

[Daly]

I almost never bet golf (just dont follow it enough) but I'll tail this one.

Got it at +4000 on my book, also did a smaller bet on top 20 finish at +1600

Our horse was making up some ground until the bogey and then double bogey.

Cant have two wet balls and expect to make top 10. He’s done so well on the Jack courses because he avoids that sort of shit. Take those off and it puts him at -3 and he’s right there for top 10.

Never know it does seem like he will make the cut - not completely imposable he storms his way up there, but I don’t think it likely from this far back.

[Daly]

Same applies for Lowry BTW.

That said Rham is making a mockery of this course right now.

[DJ_Chaps]

DJ_Chaps to shoot under 100 today. +230