*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[BCR]

Added first 5 run line as a hedge against Dodgers bullpen. I gotta lot of exposure now on Scherzer & Nationals
Mobile - Baseball - MLB - 961 Washington Nationals -½ +120 for 1st 5 Innings

What a gem of a game. I was very wrong about McCarthy tonight

2-1 Nats top of 7th

I should just hedge this thing and book a win.

+265 Dodgers out there Live.

Nats vs Dodger bullpen is no contest. Not good for me

Edit
Bottom 7 105 pitches .... Scherzer was growling on the mound- literally. What a warrior

6/7/2017 12:18:03 AM
Description:
WASHINGTON NATIONALS at LOS ANGELES DODGERS [BATTER PROPS] Moneyline DODGERS +320

Completely unrelated question for you, but I saw you lurking, and you seem most likely to have an informed opinion on this subject.

Why do we suck at tennis so badly now? Was watching the men's French and the complete lack of American players worth a shit.

Lack of interest? Kids see it as a European sport?

I have so many buddies who have these 6'3 and 6'4 sons. They came from blue collar families and grew up with me playing football and basketball against city kids every day we could, and now they live in the suburbs and their kids spend all day playing video games and rarely see sunlight. I guess that's my working theory, that these are the kids in the past who would have became competitive tennis players. They aren't going to be boxers or MMA kids, nor would their dads want them to be, but they seem genetically engineered to become tennis players and have the means if they wanted, but none seem to have a desire to do much of anything beyond video games and YouTube. In the past, those were our tennis players, right?

And how did the Williams sisters not start a black girl tennis revolution? Some dad on public courts trained both his daughters into a few hundred million and complete domination and no one has taken that test case and ran with it? It just seems like a decent amount of black girls would dominate if given a Mason and Charmaine Malmuth scholarship.

So why, in your opinion, do we suck now? I'm just throwing ideas around, but you seem to have a passion for the game and some involvement, so you're going to likely have an informed opinion. Sorry to detail thread, but not start a thread worthy subject.

[Sanlmar]

It's so friggin expensive.

I charge $45-60/hr for court time.

One on one lessons $$$ - other sports are not one on one except maybe pitching.

Tournaments and matches are always travel.

That's pretty much it in a nutshell.... which makes the Malmuth tennis story interesting

[Sanlmar]

Glover just might have kicked Puig's ass. Puig would surely swing and miss in a fight

[Dan Druff]

The irritating thing about the emergence of Koda Glover is that I have like every other Washington reliever on my fantasy team.

[Dan Druff]

I've now lost 7 picks which had a lead to start, and 6 of those had a two run or more lead, and two of them had 3 or more run lead.

I also lost 2 picks in the bottom of the 9th -- one being one of those games which led as mentioned above, and one being an over/under.

I've had 0 picks come back from behind to win.

I've had one pick win in extra innings (though that was also a blown lead, not included in the 7 above, because it ultimately won).

That's some pretty brutal luck in just 19 games picked.

[Dan Druff]

Can someone with access to the tools run the O/U numbers since, say, 2015 of over/unders in games where an NL team is in an AL park?

Pretty sure over has done damn well.

Tonight:

Pit/Bal - 11 runs, total 9/9.5 - OVER
Mets/Rangers - 18 runs, total 9.5 - OVER

Two games doesn't mean much, but I've observed this anecdotally for the last few years at least.

[Sanlmar]

Not only is Major League Baseball on track to set a record for most home runs in a season, it won’t be close. According to Matthew Pouliot of Rotoworld’s calculations, the league is on pace to hit 5,915 home runs—218 more than were hit in 2000, at the height of the Steroid Era.

Were you aware this was going on?

Witness the Brewers. Teams a focusing on swing/launch angle and not afraid to strike out. The Brewers are new baseball.

I have heard guys discuss the totals explosion generally but I have not focused on it YET

So I guess I am saying that we need not limit ourselves to AL/NL interleague totals

[Dan Druff]

Not only is Major League Baseball on track to set a record for most home runs in a season, it won’t be close. According to Matthew Pouliot of Rotoworld’s calculations, the league is on pace to hit 5,915 home runs—218 more than were hit in 2000, at the height of the Steroid Era.

Were you aware this was going on?

Witness the Brewers. Teams a focusing on swing/launch angle and not afraid to strike out. The Brewers are new baseball.

I have heard guys discuss the totals explosion generally but I have not focused on it YET

So I guess I am saying that we need not limit ourselves to AL/NL interleague totals

Yes, I'm noticing this with my fantasy teams, too.

Lots of HR (last year, too), and pitchers' ERAs are up again, after being down after the crackdown on roids.

We have 10 teams in our deep NL-only league.

My team currently sits in a close 3rd place (about 5 points off first), but is killing it in ERA and WHIP.

My team has a 3.07 ERA and 1.054 WHIP.

2nd place in ERA is 3.75. Third is 4.02.

2nd place in WHIP is 1.231. Third is 1.284.

Can you imagine? A team with 4.02/1.284 would be THIRD out of ten in both categories.

Where would 4.02/1.284 rank in 2013?

4.02 would be last, and 1.284 would be 8th.

So it's not just home runs. Offense is up.

It's true that strikeouts are on the rise. Speaking of the Brewers, they struck out 26 times in 12 innings against the Dodgers a few days ago. Has that ever happened before?

[Sanlmar]

I am not Henry with the numbers. However, I will ask this:

Suppose you learned that 68% of all NL games in AL parks went over. What are you going to do with that? Bet 100 games and apply large numbers? The juice will kill you.

It's great to be generally aware of the trend and apply that awareness as you think about a matchup. However, I think you are intuitively aware of these trends already and are just seeking to quantify it.

The "why" is the bigger question. Who are the Brewers and how do they approach a game? If I bet small numbers of games can I rely on them to consistently produce or is it all trick or treat. A strike out then Home Run binary offense scares me away.

[Dan Druff]

If I felt that 68% would go over, yes, I would hammer those overs hard all day.

Over/Unders tend to be 20-cent lines (-110/-110). They can also be -105/-125 or whatever, but let's just stick to -110 as an average.

Let's say I bet $550 on 100 games.

68 wins = +$34,000

32 losses = -$17,600

Total = +$16,400

That's $16,400 on $55,000 wagered -- a 29.82% ROI.

I'll take that all day every day.

[Sanlmar]

I guess I need an attitude adjustment. You are the poker player and see the large numbers.

I have been approaching the game in a nittier way. "It takes a lot to overcome a loss" is the way I approach things. Not a long view.

I seek out consistency. Whether it is "consistently bad" or "consistently good". I shake my head when I read some guy who makes picks say "this guy is due to regress". Give me the guy who has regressed - thank you.

There are definitely teams I avoid because they appear inconsistent in my eyes.

Bottom line (and that's all that matters) you are correct.

I really haven't looked at the bigger picture with offensive or pitching trends tbh. It takes so much time just to make a pick. I really wasn't even aware how ERA's are rising before your post.

[Daly]

If I felt that 68% would go over, yes, I would hammer those overs hard all day.

Over/Unders tend to be 20-cent lines (-110/-110). They can also be -105/-125 or whatever, but let's just stick to -110 as an average.

Let's say I bet $550 on 100 games.

68 wins = +$34,000

32 losses = -$17,600

Total = +$16,400

That's $16,400 on $55,000 wagered -- a 29.82% ROI.

I'll take that all day every day.

So would I. So would all of us. So would vegas.

If the average win rate of totals was 68% vs an average total of 8.5 over the past year vegas will start posting an average total of 9.5 going forward. Now the question becomes if the line was 9.5 over the previous year what would the win rate fall too?

You can catch vegas sleeping for a while on totals but not forever, thus the now commonplace 70+ totals in NCAAF.

[Charham]

so many Home favorites, I think i am just going to hit the grand salami today and not sweat any one game.

[badguy23]

It's so friggin expensive.

I charge $45-60/hr for court time.

One on one lessons $$$ - other sports are not one on one except maybe pitching.

Tournaments and matches are always travel.

That's pretty much it in a nutshell.... which makes the Malmuth tennis story interesting

Sanlamar you play tennis?

[Sanlmar]

It's so friggin expensive.

I charge $45-60/hr for court time.

One on one lessons $$$ - other sports are not one on one except maybe pitching.

Tournaments and matches are always travel.

That's pretty much it in a nutshell.... which makes the Malmuth tennis story interesting

Sanlamar you play tennis?

We have a tennis & fitness club.

I play about as much as I work out. Not too much. Only if some trash talk or I get called out.

The cobbler has no shoes.

I gotta take this bubble (over courts) down next week. Awful task. We hire convict day labor. Only half joking.

You in?

[jsearles22]

Baseball betting is all about finding profitable spots. Even bad teams win 40-45% of the time. I think I see a profitable spot tonight.

What if I told you a pitcher was 7-3 with a 2.08 ERA, 2nd in MLB (better than Kershaw or Scherzer. Better than Strasburg or Sale) This guy is at home tonight where his ERA is even better, 1.59. The team he is facing tonight he faced once earlier this year on the road, pitching 6 innings of 1 run ball, 6 Ks. Last Friday the guy pitched a complete game shutout at home. Seems like a great spot if the line is right. Well the ML on this guys team is +150! How is that possible you ask? Well he is 2nd in MLB in ERA but is facing the #1 guy. I still like the +150 value though. At home, and like I said earlier bad teams win a ton in MLB. +150 is too juicy.

Im riding Jason Vargas vs Houston tonight at home, +150. It may not win, it might. Nonetheless I feel like this is a great value underdog play. Also Kuechel is a little worse on the road, with a 2.20 road ERA vs 1.04 ERA at home. KC also has some momentum with a come from behind win yesterday and a walk off HR. Houston was on an 11 game win streak that ended last night. They might be in let down mode too, maybe finally resting players who havent had anytime off during the streak.

That was for you Sanlmar. I know you like details instead of just bets with no explanation.

In before game wins and Druff is too late to bet it

[Dan Druff]

Baseball betting is all about finding profitable spots. Even bad teams win 40-45% of the time. I think I see a profitable spot tonight.

What if I told you a pitcher was 7-3 with a 2.08 ERA, 2nd in MLB (better than Kershaw or Scherzer. Better than Strasburg or Sale) This guy is at home tonight where his ERA is even better, 1.59. The team he is facing tonight he faced once earlier this year on the road, pitching 6 innings of 1 run ball, 6 Ks. Last Friday the guy pitched a complete game shutout at home. Seems like a great spot if the line is right. Well the ML on this guys team is +150! How is that possible you ask? Well he is 2nd in MLB in ERA but is facing the #1 guy. I still like the +150 value though. At home, and like I said earlier bad teams win a ton in MLB. +150 is too juicy.

Im riding Jason Vargas vs Houston tonight at home, +150. It may not win, it might. Nonetheless I feel like this is a great value underdog play. Also Kuechel is a little worse on the road, with a 2.20 road ERA vs 1.04 ERA at home. KC also has some momentum with a come from behind win yesterday and a walk off HR. Houston was on an 11 game win streak that ended last night. They might be in let down mode too, maybe finally resting players who havent had anytime off during the streak.

That was for you Sanlmar. I know you like details instead of just bets with no explanation.

In before game wins and Druff is too late to bet it

My one concern here is that Vargas went 9 innings on June 2.

In 1985, I would have LOL'd at that concern, but nowadays pitchers don't do that often. He's also lost his ability to strike a lot of people out -- only 31 over his past 8 starts combined.

I agree this is tempting, but Keuchel has just looked so dominant, and that Houston offense...

I think I have to pass.

[Dan Druff]

Bronson Arroyo auto-fade:

St. Louis (Lynn) -105 at Reds (B. Arroyo)

Line has moved huge. Started out -126

I think people have a hangover from Scooter Gennett.

[Dan Druff]

at Braves (Foltynewicz) -125 vs. Phillies (Eickhoff)

Eickhoff has been a disaster this year. Hasn't won yet in 11 starts. 5.13 ERA, 1.575 WHIP.

Folty, for all his inconsistency, has made 6 quality starts in his last 9, including 7 shutout innings last time out.

[Dan Druff]

White Sox (Pelfrey) +165 at Tampa Bay (Faria)

Betting against rookie making his first start, getting +168, and Pelfrey has been surprisingly serviceable this year with a 3.86/1.180 line.

Neither team is particularly good.

Tampa has dropped 4 in a row.

Game starts in 9 min.