Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #30681
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Also this sucks that my over 10.5 is 0-0 after 2. I was leery about counting on the Indians to be part of an over 10.5, but they've put up some runs on the board lately.

    Im eyeing the Angels for tonight but not sure I can pull the trigger.

     
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      Sandwich: I like. I got a small bet on Angels +275

  2. #30682
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post
    Opening lines for CFB next weekend released.

    Ohio State is -14. Damn, I guess books did not like what they saw from the Ducks.

    I made a couple early bets, Iowa +3.5 at Iowa St and BYU +7 hosting Utah. No real great handicapping. Rivalry games like this just tend to play closer than the talent of the teams would indicate they should.
    This Iowa line is so off it must be a trap. Everyone I know hammered +3.5 including myself.

    Early line plays

    Iowa +3.5
    Florida -29
    Purdue -33.5
    So Alabama -15
    NC St -2
    Zona St -33.5
    A&M -17
    My book is currently at Iowa +4 EV. WTF is going on??

  3. #30683
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    I was reluctant to post this but it is my favorite play today by far.

    Chicago White Sox./Oakland Athletics. over 4½ -145 for 1st 5

    Two deceptively bad pitchers (lies, damn lies & statistics) coupled with two good if not great offenses which profile well against these pitchers

    It’s @ 9:40p so maybe you get right before the wife asks questions about why the family van is at CarMax

  4. #30684
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    I was reluctant to post this but it is my favorite play today by far.

    Chicago White Sox./Oakland Athletics. over 4½ -145 for 1st 5

    Two deceptively bad pitchers (lies, damn lies & statistics) coupled with two good if not great offenses which profile well against these pitchers

    It’s @ 9:40p so maybe you get right before the wife asks questions about why the family van is at CarMax
    Is -5 -120 ok? I have no fucking clue how much half a point is worth in a 5 inning baseball bet.

  5. #30685
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post

    This Iowa line is so off it must be a trap. Everyone I know hammered +3.5 including myself.

    Early line plays

    Iowa +3.5
    Florida -29
    Purdue -33.5
    So Alabama -15
    NC St -2
    Zona St -33.5
    A&M -17
    My book is currently at Iowa +4 EV. WTF is going on??
    Vegas backing a Week one overreaction. Iowa st lost week one last year and went on to have a great season so maybe I’m the sucker.

  6. #30686
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    I was reluctant to post this but it is my favorite play today by far.

    Chicago White Sox./Oakland Athletics. over 4½ -145 for 1st 5

    Two deceptively bad pitchers (lies, damn lies & statistics) coupled with two good if not great offenses which profile well against these pitchers

    It’s @ 9:40p so maybe you get right before the wife asks questions about why the family van is at CarMax
    Is -5 -120 ok? I have no fucking clue how much half a point is worth in a 5 inning baseball bet.
    A ton. I’d rather have 4.5 -150. It’s not a half a run it’s 1.5 to win.

  7. #30687
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    I was reluctant to post this but it is my favorite play today by far.

    Chicago White Sox./Oakland Athletics. over 4½ -145 for 1st 5

    Two deceptively bad pitchers (lies, damn lies & statistics) coupled with two good if not great offenses which profile well against these pitchers

    It’s @ 9:40p so maybe you get right before the wife asks questions about why the family van is at CarMax
    Is -5 -120 ok? I have no fucking clue how much half a point is worth in a 5 inning baseball bet.
    The boys are right. The difference between winning with 5 and needing to get 6 to win is monumental within 5 innings.

  8. #30688
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Bases loaded and no outs top of 1st. A’s Kaprielian allows only one run. 30 stress pitches though.

    Seems we were right. We will see.

  9. #30689
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post

    My book is currently at Iowa +4 EV. WTF is going on??
    Vegas backing a Week one overreaction. Iowa st lost week one last year and went on to have a great season so maybe I’m the sucker.
    I wasn't even factoring too much into the Week 1 performances. I feel like this game is always decided by 1-3 points, even when one team (normally Iowa) is a massive favorite.

    I could be completely wrong, but my gut is for both Iowa-Iowa St. and BYU-Utah if you always took took the points with a dog that was +3.5 or more you would be massive +EV.

  10. #30690
    Platinum JeffDime's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JoeD View Post
    Solheim Cup at Inverness. I hate to say it but I like the Euros this weekend. Other than Nelly K I just don't see a stronger USA team.

    Putting my small remaining Bovada balance of $100 on Matilda Castren @ +900 to be the top euro point scorer.

    Good call Joe. There was a ton of value on the Euros (+225) in many places. I was wrapped up for three days waiting for Rahm to catch and pass Cantlay so I didn’t pay attention too much. You were right and your LPGA knowledge has always been great. Wish I didn’t lay off. I will admit I did think the US would win this but would never have laid -200 or more. Great stuff as always.

  11. #30691
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    I was reluctant to post this but it is my favorite play today by far.

    Chicago White Sox./Oakland Athletics. over 4½ -145 for 1st 5

    Two deceptively bad pitchers (lies, damn lies & statistics) coupled with two good if not great offenses which profile well against these pitchers

    It’s @ 9:40p so maybe you get right before the wife asks questions about why the family van is at CarMax
    Worked out. The 5 got there.

    Is this stupid? I’ve never done anything like it before but it feels right

    Teaser
    Football - 452 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 for Game
    Football - 311 Boston College -30½ for Game

  12. #30692
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post

    Im eyeing the Angels for tonight but not sure I can pull the trigger.
    Good grief Sandwich. Nice hit. +275

    Didn’t handicap it or watch it but obviously I gotta figure out if this is gonna become a thing going forward. What is going on on San Diego exactly?

  13. #30693
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post

    Im eyeing the Angels for tonight but not sure I can pull the trigger.
    Good grief Sandwich. Nice hit. +275

    Didn’t handicap it or watch it but obviously I gotta figure out if this is gonna become a thing going forward. What is going on on San Diego exactly?
    Well, I screwed up. Meant to bet it, figured I had time, took a nap, woke up too late.

    I didn't explain at the time, but my rationale here was that Angels starter Packy Naughton has 4 decent pitches, throws fastballs with command, and just hasn't quite put it together yet. However, he was the type of guy who could come in and surprise everyone, and indeed, he shut down SD for 5 innings. My hesitation on this one was Blake Snell, who has otherwise been a disappointment in 2021. Snell has somehow looked really good again since August 3, including 7 hitless innings in his last outing. So I was worried he would destroy the Angels, who were without Ohtani as a starter because he has no position to play in the NL when not pitching. Indeed, Snell pitched very well again, but the Padres' bats were asleep, and that was that.

    Congrats to Sandwich.

  14. #30694
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    The 18 year old, Raducanu is about to upset Bencic at the US Open. She has not lost a set in the entire tournament. Incredible. Even if you don’t bet tennis and are poor you will hear about this on ESPN

    I got her at +140 preflop and better live.

    Fuck you badguy. Make things right. I miss tennis betting on PFA

    My son has been driving 3 hours back and fourth to NYC. He was caught in the hurricane and flood one night.

    I need to get right with my life. Shoulda gone too

  15. #30695
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    The 18 year old, Raducanu is about to upset Bencic at the US Open. She has not lost a set in the entire tournament. Incredible. Even if you don’t bet tennis and are poor you will hear about this on ESPN

    I got her at +140 preflop and better live.

    Fuck you badguy. Make things right. I miss tennis betting on PFA

    My son has been driving 3 hours back and fourth to NYC. He was caught in the hurricane and flood one night.

    I need to get right with my life. Shoulda gone too
    Who's more impressive?

    Raducanu or my girl Leylah?

    Crazy that we have Leylah and Felix in the semis. Unfortunately I think Felix loses Friday but Leylah will have a chance.

    And yes you have it all wrong. Your boy should be holding fort while you're watching live tennis. What we do for our kids....

  16. #30696
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Wow. She is going to semi finals. This will be a good handicap going forward. She was very very nervous before this match in the press conference.

  17. #30697
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Simp, if you want to cash this you need to call 3 friends.

    Blue Jays team total over 4½ -119

    I’m gonna call my therapist cause I’m relying on that inconsistent offense

  18. #30698
    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
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    Going Sanlmar and doing a risky bet, like $800 but fuck it, I'll just buy some shitcoins if it loses. Anyway, under 3.5 Mets - Marlins first five innings.

  19. #30699
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    Lunch money wake and cash KBO special:

    Hanwha Eagles/LG Twins first 5 U4

  20. #30700
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post
    Lunch money wake and cash KBO special:

    Hanwha Eagles/LG Twins first 5 U4
    I will check later but do not have 1st 5 yet.

    I’m intrigued. 1st 5’s a sign of sharp minds

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