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Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #20061
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post

    I never saw so many lobsided contests on one night.

    MOBILE - BASEBALL - MLB - 919 CLEVELAND INDIANS -162 FOR GAME W 13-4

    MOBILE - BASEBALL - MLB - 915 BOSTON RED SOX -285 FOR GAME W 13-2

    TABLET - BASEBALL - MLB - 922 MINNESOTA TWINS -1½ -112 FOR GAME W 2-0

    TABLET - BASEBALL - MLB - 926 HOUSTON ASTROS -1½ -130 FOR GAME W 15-2

    TABLET - BASEBALL - MLB - 913 MILWAUKEE BREWERS -1½ +115 FOR GAME

    It’s like college Friday night with your ace versus the wretched opponents that are most of th league. I’m flexible if nothing else

    Kinda pissed I didn’t get down on Giolito CWS vs NYY. Seemed like a gamble compared to everything else W 10-1
    The magnitude of these beat downs surprised even me. Sort of. The MLB is more often than not a mindless exercise.

    Had to laugh the one RL we both took turned out to be a bit of a scare. Doesn’t matter. Ship it.

    These were mostly posted after the start. It was too mindless. And no one really cares.

    These don’t count on the PFA record.

  2. #20062
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Don’t get hooked on coke

    Don’t get hooked on pills

    Don’t get hooked on run lines


    We all take a voyage on a trip that ain’t good for us every now and again just don’t get hooked.

    Same goes for chalk parlays which I like.

  3. #20063
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Don’t get hooked on coke

    Don’t get hooked on pills

    Don’t get hooked on run lines


    We all take a voyage on a trip that ain’t good for us every now and again just don’t get hooked.

    Same goes for chalk parlays which I like.
    There are a multitude of tools in the toolbox. An endless array of derivatives and strategies at our disposal. I have posted almost 100 plays and very few are RL.

    Fewer are parlays although they are useful too - for me it’s never about the big hit but limiting big dollar risk. I used parlays for the huge odds associated with the tanking NBA teams. Worked very nicely.

    As I said in my previous posts, “I am nothing if not flexible”. The next card will prolly be different but don’t dismiss the competitive imbalance that is becoming the norm.

  4. #20064
    aka PP23 badguy23's Avatar
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    I respect you both.

    I agree with daly pre 2019 but this is a shit show right now.

    Think back in the day how many times you ever seen a -300 fav? Now there is one everyday and most cover.

    Baseball is fucked up right now. Also all the overs? which they havent adjusted to yet especially team totals. Today you could get Angels Over 2.5?? -150 LOL Snell got bailed out but guy has been garbage that hit in 2nd inning. Pirates have gone over like 14 of 16 games.

    I hope we all can continue to win. Soon I think we are going to see teams -450 and -2.5 cuz right now these books r taking a bath on these parlays.

  5. #20065
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by badguy23 View Post
    I respect you both.

    I agree with daly pre 2019 but this is a shit show right now.

    Think back in the day how many times you ever seen a -300 fav? Now there is one everyday and most cover.

    Baseball is fucked up right now. Also all the overs? which they havent adjusted to yet especially team totals. Today you could get Angels Over 2.5?? -150 LOL Snell got bailed out but guy has been garbage that hit in 2nd inning. Pirates have gone over like 14 of 16 games.

    I hope we all can continue to win. Soon I think we are going to see teams -450 and -2.5 cuz right now these books r taking a bath on these parlays.
    There is so much change happening. With the books and with the game.

    So funny you talk about adjusted/alternate lines. I actually looked at them today.

    What is changing like right now ... is the opening pitchers. It’s exploding right this very week or two. Will listed pitchers become a thing of the past?

    You know what’s fucked up? MGM is the official sportsbook of MLB. MGM gets the lineups before anyone else. Lineups and pitchers - both opening and relieving have never been more of an issue. When someone has the information before everyone else that is the opposite of integrity & transparency

    In the old days lineup info was released to the beat reporter and he wanted to be first with the news. He got it out there for everyone. Not perfect but better than giving someone a patented advantage. This is a big issue.

    Anyway, it’s just an example of how drastically things are changing all over. Not even talking about the ball or analytics.

    It’s crazy. But I contend the books don’t know what to do. Baseball always sucks for the books compared to the other sports. But there is a lot of volume cause there is a lot of games. Volume and hold overcomes a lot of confusion. 4.5% insures against mistakes.

    Question the old rules cause it’s not the same game.

    The whole thing is god damned fascinating to me.

  6. #20066
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Much like the NBA of 2018-19, MLB 2019 has been a strange year for betting.

    A lot of the sharps are taking a bath in MLB this year. A service whose picks I don't use (but I get to see them posted after-the-fact for results purposes) is down 21 units -- and that's using their generous lines which tend to be #stale or based upon one outlier book out of 50.

    A lot of big favorites are indeed hitting, and the unders -- long a staple of sharp MLB bettors -- also have been unreliable.

  7. #20067
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Starting in a few:

    San Francisco (Bumgarner) -1.5 +178 vs. Milwaukee (Nelson) - Only Nelson's 2nd start since 2017, first start went poorly

  8. #20068
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Another run line:

    Washington (Strasburg) -1.5 -115 vs. Arizona (Clarke)

  9. #20069
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Ugh... already 2-0 Dbacks on two solo HR.

    Anyway, here's two more for later:

    Pittsburgh (Agrazal) at Miami (P. Lopez) - Under 7.5 -105 - Lopez has been very good, numbers were bloated by single start awhile back with 10 ER. Agrazal first ML start but has done well in the minors this year.

    Seattle (G. Bautista) +192 at Oakland (Montas) - Tommy Milone to pitch 2nd inning and beyond, and has been surprisingly effective in 2019. This game popular with sharps, and has had reverse line movement.

  10. #20070
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    This Washington game is a shitshow.

    I expected Clarke to get bombed, but Strasburg is also terrible so far. 5 HR have been served up by the top of the 2nd, and it's a 3-3 tie, likely to be 4-3 Dbacks soon, as they also just got a triple.

  11. #20071
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Chris Sale THE WORST ROI amongst pitchers was -340 vs King Kong Bundy and the mighty Orioles

    The Sawks just might lose here.

    3-2 Sawks but in serious f’ing trouble

    Didn’t touch it but feels like Boston night be eligible for Federal Relief.

    Sale & Price.

    This is what they call public as fuck.

     
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      Daly: Didn’t pan out but I like where your head was at

  12. #20072
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Should've listed to Daly about run lines.

    The Washington one lost either way.

    SF was up 8-6 in the 9th, then gave up a run and game finished 8-7. Ugh. +175 win turns into a loss.

    I did get lucky with the Marlins game staying under 7.5 after a 3-3 tie early.

    Seattle game is tilting me because they didn't run out Milone as promised. Because of this idioticy opener stuff, you can no longer bet "listed" and have your bet canceled if pitching changes. Instead, as long as the opener goes the bet goes, and the bulk pitcher after that can be anyone. It was supposed to be Milone, but it wasn't and they put in the terrible Wade Leblanc, who I never would have backed. Leblanc coughed up 6 runs. True, the opener gave up 3 runs too, but that was something they could have overcome, especially scoring 1 run themselves.

  13. #20073
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Moved the Anthony Davis stuff to the NBA thread BTW

  14. #20074
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Continuing with the Sawks are nonsense theme.

    Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 916 Baltimore Orioles +110 for 1st 5 Innings L
    Down 2-1 Bases loaded Orioles bottom 5 - but it’s the Orioles after all

    Orioles Means is really good vs Sawks Johnson who has battled elbow problems and hasn’t started / is a reliever.

    Maybe it’s a bullpen day for Boston and that’s no reason for Sawks optimism either. Means is strong and it’s a plus price.

    Obviously, you don’t want to be around in the 2nd half of what will devolve into a shit show of randomness. Maybe you like the over.


    I’ll open the discussion with this idea. There’s actually some interesting stuff today.

    Edit

    This ones for you GBCP. I don’t have a clue but

    FUTURES - THE U.S. OPEN - ODDS TO WIN THE U.S. OPEN (UPD. AFTER R3) - JUSTIN ROSE +200
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 06-16-2019 at 06:59 PM.

  15. #20075
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Continuing with the Sawks are nonsense theme.

    Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 916 Baltimore Orioles +110 for 1st 5 Innings

    Orioles Means is really good vs Sawks Johnson who has battled elbow problems and hasn’t started / is a reliever.

    Maybe it’s a bullpen day for Boston and that’s no reason for Sawks optimism either. Means is strong and it’s a plus price.

    Obviously, you don’t want to be around in the 2nd half of what will devolve into a shit show of randomness. Maybe you like the over.


    I’ll open the discussion with this idea. There’s actually some interesting stuff today.

    Edit

    This ones for you GBCP. I don’t have a clue but

    FUTURES - THE U.S. OPEN - ODDS TO WIN THE U.S. OPEN (UPD. AFTER R3) - JUSTIN ROSE +200
    I got a few Yen on Koepka pre tournament at 10-1 but I think Rose is the bet to have, unfortunately

  16. #20076
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Phil Steele is out. It’s officaly college football prep time.

    Really like where he is at on some general leans. I had a feeling about BC last year and he kind of put me over the top on them. Two years ago it was Marshall. This year, and again I agree with him, is Utah. They are loaded and there is a very good chance John Q Public has no idea they could be a playoff team.

  17. #20077
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Continuing with the Sawks are nonsense theme.

    Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 916 Baltimore Orioles +110 for 1st 5 Innings

    Orioles Means is really good vs Sawks Johnson who has battled elbow problems and hasn’t started / is a reliever.

    Maybe it’s a bullpen day for Boston and that’s no reason for Sawks optimism either. Means is strong and it’s a plus price.

    Obviously, you don’t want to be around in the 2nd half of what will devolve into a shit show of randomness. Maybe you like the over.


    I’ll open the discussion with this idea. There’s actually some interesting stuff today.

    Edit

    This ones for you GBCP. I don’t have a clue but

    FUTURES - THE U.S. OPEN - ODDS TO WIN THE U.S. OPEN (UPD. AFTER R3) - JUSTIN ROSE +200
    I got a few Yen on Koepka pre tournament at 10-1 but I think Rose is the bet to have, unfortunately
    I have that X bet and man I was feeling really good holding that ticket after round 1...

    GL san...im seeing brooks at 5:1 right now...id love to sell as much as I can at that price...no fucking way he wins the thing under this construct enough to justify those odds...

  18. #20078
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    if you like taking a shot on a longshot from time to time, watch how this hovland kid plays in his first few events as a pro before the british in july…

    if he plays well, I think you could do a lot worse than like 125:1 or whatever he's gonna be at the british...

  19. #20079
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post
    if you like taking a shot on a longshot from time to time, watch how this hovland kid plays in his first few events as a pro before the british in july…

    if he plays well, I think you could do a lot worse than like 125:1 or whatever he's gonna be at the british...
    I like that bet a whole lot. No way he should be that long after what he’s shown this weekend. Far from a favorite but he’s live.

  20. #20080
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    I’ve seen some locals that are hanging L Bell with a receiving total of 625. I like the under there Bigly.

    I also think Foles will easily have more than 3425 passing yards if he plays 16 games (I got him around 4100) but it’s hard to back a season long over

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