Well that's a horrible start.
Under in bad shape after less than one quarter.
Well that's a horrible start.
Under in bad shape after less than one quarter.
Got two for tonight:
Golden State +107 vs. Lakers (GS +1.5 or better ok)
Denver vs. Indiana - Under 223.5
First off, just wanted to congratulate Daly on a beautiful pick and a great run of picks. He is a real solid guy and has been sharp af. My biggest regret is to not just have been pounding his plays as of late. Instead of treading water, I would probably be buying an Escalade myself. I’ve only been here for almost a year, but his track record is incredibly impressive. Well done!
The irony in betting golf is that you can get way to in your head and over think things, just like the golfers do. Clearly over the past few weeks with Brooks, Morikawa, Homa & JT winning when their form was not particularly great, it shows that betting golf takes more than just going off stats, current form, course layout, etc. If you look at JTs win this weekend, over Saturday and Sunday he struck the ball just about as good as anyone has ever done. That is no surprise. He has that game in him. Huge chance was to get him going into the weekend at huge odds for cheap.
I have had a ton of 2nd, tied for 2nd or 3rds in my outrights over the last year or so. Tommy missing a two foot putt in a playoff to Aaron Rai when I had a 60K sweat is the one that really sticks with me. Right now I am currently in my head regarding DJ. I had a lot of exposure on him this weekend. Looked like he was going to turn it in on Friday after a 4 under first nine, but TPC will punish you 2 or 3 shots for one bad shot (b/c of the penalty areas/up and downs being so tough) and it didn’t work out.
I think maybe he was the beneficiary of having no crowds. Last time he really played up to snuff was Saudi Arabia. The European Tour had no fans in attendance and keeps a very strict bubble. DJ always had the tools and everyone said he finally figured it all out last year. But maybe those 30 unders were a product of not having to manage the nerves and the adrenaline that the crowd (even at 25% capacity) brings into play. Maybe this is another product of over-thinking. Time will tell. I already have a good amount on him at Augusta, so I have to hope I’m wrong to a certain extent.
As for this week, I’m keeping this shit real simple. Niemann at 20-1 or some places 18-1. The difference between mid pack and up on the leaderboard is a couple putts or a few decent breaks. Yes, he has unfortunately not closed things out in the past in that playoff earlier this year or the other week he contended when Na won. He may have to win by a few strokes tbh. No PGA field is weak, but this is a close to it as he will come. Golden opportunity for him.
Big matchup Fade is Westwood for me. Awesome stuff from him last two weeks but his price this week is absurd. He complained he the was lethargic Sunday and he traveled to Augusta between tournaments this week after being in the last group the last two weeks. I look for things to catch up with him. Big fade for me.
GL everyone. Btw no idea why there is an emoji on this post, don’t know what it means or how to get rid of it.
Great job Daly!
Enjoy the Escalade
Well now i need to play the collection game before I get my keys....Originally Posted by Dan Druff
After an 0-2 smackdown yesterday, I'll try again.
New York at Philadelphia - Over 219 (Embiid out, Rose out, Payton doubtful, Robinson out)
Miami vs Cleveland - Under 206.5
I could run through the whole thought process but I’ll bottom line it.
Give me S Lowry at +2300
Someone in the top ten of the market is going to win this week. Won’t be a random +50-1 guy I don’t think.
J Neimann is going to start to win soon, I don’t hate that pick but I don’t think this is the venue for him.
+2200 on BOL right now
I fired. GL us.
LFG+2200 on BOL right now
I fired. GL us.
Just keep in mind you aren’t supposed to win 25-1 bets every week. My money is down so you know I like the pick but betting golf tournaments is like having a good defensive catcher. If you hit 20% of the time you can still win in the long run.
Yeah I know these +2000 type things just hit every so often. If it's +EV, I'm in.
Pretty amazing how bad my feel has been for the NBA post-break. Well, bad feel and bad luck. I've lost a number of very close ones, but I've also bricked some really badly.
Today I'm getting the one game where Cleveland and Miami score (look at their scores recently), and the Knicks/76ers somehow put up 41 points in the first. Opposite of what I need.
Ugh.
2nd quarter is looking better for both, but the first was so bad for both teams that it's going to be an uphill battle to win either.
lowry at +2515 on acr book
btw sorry I didn't post picks today had a 3 unit win day but tilted from my picks here losing so didn't post. Not that sorry though as I don't many here tailing my picks anyway lol.
Yeah, tough NBA week. Even worse for me.
The ploppies must be making a killing, though. Lots of those picks coming through. Even one of the two picks I won since the break was a ploppy pick (Atlanta -4, which you also had and won lol).
Golf - The Honda Classic - Tournament Winner
To Win Outright
Shane Lowry +2500 03/18/2021 (03:00 AM)
And all of a sudden that Lowry bet looks even better.
For the record I did splash on Neimann and Im, like .33 on each.
The three of them combined must cover a lot of winning runouts
Fall off the bike, get back on...
Starting in a few:
Cleveland vs. Boston - Under 212.5
Can't catch a break.
Considered 3 unders today: Cleveland, Denver, and Memphis.
Went with Cleveland, because I've been cold and didn't want to make 3 picks. Denver and Memphis unders looking great.
Cleveland also looked great after the first half. Then a 63-point 3rd and now pointless fouling in a non-close game at the end of the 4th, and I'm going to lose most likely,
Yup, I lost. You'd think a 95 point first half would be a lock for the under, but apparently not.
STATE -2
Moving forward, I will be fading every Druff NBA pick until further notice. Ice cold, sad to see from a bettor I respect. Normally I think he has a good feel. Not seeing the board lately!
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