*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[Dan Druff]

I thought NCAAB was bad, but after my hiatus, I've been doing pretty well there. Won today, too.

NBA has been killing me though. Neither pick today was close.

[Sanlmar]

An unusual political hiccup for me.

Labor Secretary Marty Walsh - the ex Mayor of Boston @ +1200

Marty Walsh is bailing Biden to become head of the National Hockey League Players Association. Obv a much better gig

Wherever the Secret Service hid Walsh during the speech…. he may never be seen again.


@Simp
Lotta NHL variance post Florida All Star partying. It ain’t the NBA but I’m waiting until Saturday. We shall dine then.

[Starbucks Spunk Bucket]

Some bets you make are just plain numbers driven. The guy fires his last $125 into a $7,500 pot and all you got is king high…… you only have to be right one out of 60 times for it to make sense even if you are over 90% sure you dead.

Rham opened up at 8-1 Monday and proceeded to get hammered down to +450. In the process he managed to push Rory up to 10-1. That took a lot of bets to make happen. Thousands upon thousands of dollars.

Many locals and some offshore still have him up at 8-1.

Take a look and call down with K high one time

On William Hill:

Rahm currently 15/2
Rory 8/1

[Daly]

Some bets you make are just plain numbers driven. The guy fires his last $125 into a $7,500 pot and all you got is king high…… you only have to be right one out of 60 times for it to make sense even if you are over 90% sure you dead.

Rham opened up at 8-1 Monday and proceeded to get hammered down to +450. In the process he managed to push Rory up to 10-1. That took a lot of bets to make happen. Thousands upon thousands of dollars.

Many locals and some offshore still have him up at 8-1.

Take a look and call down with K high one time

On William Hill:

Rahm currently 15/2
Rory 8/1

Go walk into a Willy Hill with $6,667 and say you want to win $50K on Rham. I cant say for sure but my guess is the answer will be no “How about win $5000….. if you want to rebet it will be at 6-1”

Give them $6,250 on Rory and i bet they take it.

Just a guess I may be wrong and it may be different for me vs Mattress Mack

[Sanlmar]

On William Hill:

Rahm currently 15/2
Rory 8/1

Go walk into a Willy Hill with $6,667 and say you want to win $50K on Rham. I cant say for sure but my guess is the answer will be no “How about win $5000….. if you want to rebet it will be at 6-1”

Give them $6,250 on Rory and i bet they take it.

Just a guess I may be wrong and it may be different for me vs Mattress Mack

You following Mattress Mack’s new religion about legalized wagering in Texas? How it might be a bad thing?

Mack is catching flack.

[Daly]

Go walk into a Willy Hill with $6,667 and say you want to win $50K on Rham. I cant say for sure but my guess is the answer will be no “How about win $5000….. if you want to rebet it will be at 6-1”

Give them $6,250 on Rory and i bet they take it.

Just a guess I may be wrong and it may be different for me vs Mattress Mack

You following Mattress Mack’s new religion about legalized wagering in Texas? How it might be a bad thing?

Mack is catching flack.

Yeah you cant me the #1 sports bettor in a state and then start to talk about how it might not be a good thing. I mean hes probably being as honest as anyone can and hes not wrong in what hes saying. Not everyone bets these amounts and when they do they arent offsetting millions in promotional dealings for the largest furniture store in the state.

If you didnt understand the whole situation you might think it Smacks of hypocrisy

[Sanlmar]

Speaking of legalized wagering and lol state gambling commissions, I skimmed something last night about PrizePicks seizing customer balances without recourse or explanation. Saw mid 5 figures in one example

Let’s use this as a book mark. When I have time I’ll retrace my steps

[Sanlmar]

Random example

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/#!/x/status/1622995864951177216

I use PrizePicks during MLB as a datapoint for that night’s pitching performance. It’s just a process I fell into. I would NEVER involve myself in their awful spreads. Useful prop stuff refined by a market tho.

The sosh personalities surrounding this site really border on unsavory lol

[Dan Druff]

Detroit +215 at Cleveland - FIRST HALF (Garland, Mitchell OUT)

[Dan Druff]

NCAAB

SMU +115 vs Temple (+2 ok)

[Dan Druff]

Can't get NBA right recently. Thought Detroit would come out strong at least for 1H, with those 2 Cleveland starters sitting. Nope! 18 points down after 1Q. This pick is dead.

Go SMU.

[Dan Druff]

I swear this is the last time I bet on a horrible NBA team as a moneyline.

[Dan Druff]

SMU broke out to a 19-2 lead and I thought I could cruise to an easy win.

Nope! Temple now up 30-27. Awful. That's a 28-8 run.

[Sanlmar]

Noodling still. Share my notes for an idea

Kraken +118 @ Devils

Devils Center & Star &nightly multiple scorer Jack Hughes out. Devils always struggling anyway. McKenzie Blackwood (we don’t trust him 1-4 last five starts) confirmed in goal.

Kraken goalie unconfirmed

Kraken was +140 overnight and it’s fallen mightily.

Just a quick idea.

6 of last 7 Devils games ended up tied so tie +345 is sexy …. Leaning over (4-3 OT).

Collect some money for Chiefs …

[Starbucks Spunk Bucket]

Couldn't resist Rory at +1800 there, v early days in difficult conditions

[Dan Druff]

SMU ended up winning by 1 last night.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but after quitting NCAAB in frustration, I might stay with NCAAB and quit NBA instead. I've had a bad NBA season.

I've been 8-4, +5.10 units in NCAAB since returning from my 3-week break from it. That's not much of a sample size, but it's encouraging.

Can't wait for MLB to start, both as a fan and as a bettor. I'll see if I can improve upon my slight winning season last year, which saw a much better second half than first.

[Dan Druff]

NCAAB

Coastal Carolina +200 vs Marshall - FIRST HALF
Missouri KC +1.5 at Western Illinois

[Dan Druff]

One more NCAAB

Eastern Kentucky -102 at Queens NC (up to -110 ok, +1 up to -117 ok)

[Dan Druff]

Marshall is stomping on Coastal Carolina. That one's a loss for me.

Missouri KC has a small lead at the moment.

Eastern Kentucky losing by 6, near the end of 1H.

Hoping for 2-1, but 0-3 could easily occur.

[Daly]

Random example

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/#!/x/status/1622995864951177216

I use PrizePicks during MLB as a datapoint for that night’s pitching performance. It’s just a process I fell into. I would NEVER involve myself in their awful spreads. Useful prop stuff refined by a market tho.

The sosh personalities surrounding this site really border on unsavory lol

Ty for posting this San - I went 7-0 with one push on the season long NCAAF stuff this year and was contemplating dropping a bomb on the NFL season long numbers they just posted…… this gives me pause tieing up significant funds there.

Its one thing when you beat and you need to cut off/limit someone. Despite all the conversation we have on the subject at the end of the day Im not taking Billy Walters action either, so on some level I can understand it.

That said if you take bets and you get beat…… pay it and move along. When a scumbag (Badguy) scams a book as “the player” its a shitty thing to do, but they got a shit end of the stick paying the juice so as a bookmaker you can chalk shitheals up to being “part of the game” (even if someone does you a favor in getting you the out and you fuck them over entirely). When a book gets beat and they don't pay or play these silly slow pay games….. that in my mind is criminal. if these assholes are regulated i throw the book at them, but I'm honestly not sure how Prizepicks are “regulated” in any way.