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Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #19241
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    122-110. Came down to a meaningless 3-point shot taken by the Pelicans' Kenrich Williams with 11 seconds left.

    Brick.

    Defensive rebound for the Blazers with 7 sec left, up by 12, obviously held the ball.

    232 points, allowing me to squeak by with a 1-point victory and go 2-0 today.


  2. #19242
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Memphis is looking better lately. Washington is going the other way.

    Memphis +103 at Washington

    Also... a public play.

    Portland at San Antonio - Under 223

  3. #19243
    aka PP23 badguy23's Avatar
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    U fcks no what to do

    Washington Huskies Money Line NCAA BasketBall

    All u can eat

    Good Luck all

    Pills r bad!!

  4. #19244
    Diamond BCR's Avatar
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    Had to check to see if anyone was on Mavs -5.5 against Cavs. I saw line earlier and thought it was low and then saw Luka was out. Mavs were up by close to 20 for most of 3rd and early 4th, and Dirk was close to passing Wilt on all time scoring list, and they spent the last 10 minutes trying to get him the record. Just fed his old ass every possession and he kept missing and it ended up Mavs 121-116. I was just picturing dudes holding mavs -5.5 tickets in Vegas losing their minds.

  5. #19245
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Split 'em Saturday.

    Skipped yesterday.

    Two today:

    Denver at Boston - Under 221
    San Antonio +125 vs. Golden State (spread +2.5 also ok)

  6. #19246
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    One short note.

    Apparently I insulted both simpdog and Sanlmar with my comments.

    simpdog seems to believe that I didn't respect his contributions here, whereas Sanlmar seemed to think I was rude to him.

    None of this was my intention, and I appreciate both very much as longtime posters here. Additionally, I appreciate all of the contest simpdog has run with his own money. Very generous, and I always respected that a lot. Both have brought a lot to PFA.

    I tried to send each a PM clearing things up, but got no response.

    Neither have posted here since their last posts to me expressing irritation with what I wrote.

    I can't force them to come back, but I hope they do.

  7. #19247
    Diamond Mintjewlips's Avatar
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    Damn...guess this thread is about to go cold af....well...be back in August....KENTUCKY FTW +1200 ATM GOGOGOGOGOOOOO....
    "Druff would suck his own dick if it were long enough"- Brandon "drexel" Gerson

    "ann coulter literally has more common sense than pfa."-Sonatine

    "Real grinders supports poker fraud"- Ray Davis


    "DRILLED HER GOOD"- HONGKONGER

  8. #19248
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Split 'em Saturday.

    Skipped yesterday.

    Two today:

    Denver at Boston - Under 221
    San Antonio +125 vs. Golden State (spread +2.5 also ok)
    Hit ‘em both.

    Almost got fucked big time on the Boston under, as they were going crazy fouling at the end despite being down 7-9 points!

    And notice another dog moneyline win.

  9. #19249
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    One short note.

    Apparently I insulted both simpdog and Sanlmar with my comments.

    simpdog seems to believe that I didn't respect his contributions here, whereas Sanlmar seemed to think I was rude to him.

    None of this was my intention, and I appreciate both very much as longtime posters here. Additionally, I appreciate all of the contest simpdog has run with his own money. Very generous, and I always respected that a lot. Both have brought a lot to PFA.

    I tried to send each a PM clearing things up, but got no response.

    Neither have posted here since their last posts to me expressing irritation with what I wrote.

    I can't force them to come back, but I hope they do.
    Yeah. I don’t think you even said anything that bad. If they are boycotting over that I think they are being over-sensitive. I hope they come back too.

  10. #19250
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    One short note.

    Apparently I insulted both simpdog and Sanlmar with my comments.

    simpdog seems to believe that I didn't respect his contributions here, whereas Sanlmar seemed to think I was rude to him.

    None of this was my intention, and I appreciate both very much as longtime posters here. Additionally, I appreciate all of the contest simpdog has run with his own money. Very generous, and I always respected that a lot. Both have brought a lot to PFA.

    I tried to send each a PM clearing things up, but got no response.

    Neither have posted here since their last posts to me expressing irritation with what I wrote.

    I can't force them to come back, but I hope they do.
    I appreciate your post. I do. I wasn’t boycotting - I just grew tired of it.

    Let’s get in touch with sanlmar’s feelings, shall we?

    As I said, you bet on hunches and enjoy pressing buttons, which is totally fine if you're doing it recreationally, but it's not a formula to being a long term winner.
    You said this twice. If this is “razzing” the style is new to me.

    There is a gentleman’s code in my universe when gambling against the house. You never bluntly criticize a guy for spewing.

    The old woman in the cutoff seat at the Blackjack table who hits a 17 with a dealer 6 showing and pulls the 10.

    The guy at the crap table who loads up the hardways or doesn’t take max odds.

    Unless they ask, it’s their money.

    I never made fun of your wagering. Like never. I am guilty of a minor passive aggressive infraction with regard to Overtime. It was subtle and tastefully executed. Indeed a remarkably large number of OT’s deserved some notice. In fact, I called it a skill that you should seek to exploit.

    This thread is the last of the PFA gambling. I didn’t come for the politics.

    We stumbled onto an incredible NHL opportunity. I wrote about it and speculated as to the market’s failure to respond etc. Posted many picks. One or two responded and I cheered them on and applauded their good fortune.

    I may be speaking out of turn but I think Simpdog and I felt like we were wasting our time. I did anyway. I felt like I was shouting into a trashcan. Posting wasn’t helping me make money.

    Then I read I am “mashing buttons” and I felt profoundly stupid about wasting my time.

    I have not been boycotting. We have taken our discussion elsewhere. We just have a few more games left in the NHL. The playoffs are a completely new ballgame. I have nothing to offer there.

    I’ll tail Simpdog, of course.

    I have enjoyed everyone who has posted here - that’s a fact. What started as just sharing some nightly wagering turned into a genuine recognition that Simpdog has real wagering chops. I got all gay about my bromance in endless bored nonsense posting but the kid is sharp.

    He snap recognized the 1P’s in early January well before anyone else.

    Not just his handicapping - which I trust. But the other aspects of wagering and seeking good lines. He does shit that I cannot.

    If he never wins a other bet he is a made guy. He had an incredible run. Hope the wife never finds it.

    I gave him unlimited access to me. I never did that before. I like keeping the PFA relationships anonymous. It’s unique. He is a man of few words. He has never been intrusive. You can just sense this kid is total class and has a code.

    So that’s where I’m at. I am flattered that you took the time to write Druff. I’ll move on.

    If your offended about LeBron, the Lakers, Kershaw or the Dodgers - I can’t help being consistently right. In fact, I am about to forfeit all my Kershaw player futures UNDER because he will not be on the active roster Game 1. My luck, huh? Wins, WHIP (+110 on a WHIP greater than 1!!! ) strikeouts. Dear lord.
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 03-19-2019 at 12:49 PM.

  11. #19251
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Welcome back, Sanlmar.

    For the record, I don't care about your criticism of the Dodgers, Lakers, Kershaw, Lebron, etc. Some people hate certain teams. You hate LA teams. I'm not offended. I've even conceded that Kershaw is probably going to have a steep decline going forward.

  12. #19252
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    I have two picks today. No totals.

    I have one spread pick, and one crazy dog pick, which will be tempered by a spread pick (half/half).

    Charlotte -1 vs. Philadelphia (Embiid out)
    Half bet: Atlanta +8 vs. Houston
    Half bet: Atlanta +300 vs. Houston

  13. #19253
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Regarding everything else, Sanlmar...

    Whether I personally bet on the picks posted here doesn't matter. I know a lot of people loved the simpdog NHL picks. I even liked them, hence I started betting on some of them at the end.

    My conversation about the big favorites often being a poor value is a belief that I personally have about sportsbetting, and one I know many sharps also believe. With that said, if simp is making it work (which this season he has), then that's great. It's just a lot harder to tell if you're winning because of luck or skill. On the flip side, if you keep hitting dog after dog, then you know it's very likely to be skill. It's a math problem.

    But I didn't mean to discourage anyone from posting their big favorite picks or betting the ones that are posted.

    My "betting hunches and clicking buttons" thing wasn't serious, but was just a jabbing response to your accusation that I was picking my unders randomly.

    Speaking about those unders, after almost 100 of them this NBA season, constantly hanging at .500, I realized something wasn't working. That's what you have to do in sports. Constantly evolve, constantly look for new edges and angles. Be willing to abandon or decrease what isn't working as well anymore. So I took a step back, examined everything, and found that I was missing potential value in some moneyline dogs. So far that has worked out well, but the sample space is small.

    Moneyline dogs have the opposite problem of big favorites, though. With big favorites, a good streak can be difficult to discern between luck and skill. With big dogs, a bad streak can be difficult to discern between (bad) luck and bad picks. When you're firing out +300 bets, you aren't doing it with the expectation that it's going to win. Rather, you're betting that it has better than the 25% chance the line gives it to win. But you can lose a lot of good picks like that and start to doubt yourself. On the flip side, maybe your +300 pick just sucked. However, when WINNING big dogs at a decent clip, you know you're onto something.

  14. #19254
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Big favorites & difficulty discerning luck or skill. Generally, that might be true if you were raw handicapping.

    What we experienced was once in a generation insanity. I explained why long ago. I’ll never see this again.

    We have one team that is still running 78% over 70 games for totals. There were situations that were running 65-5.

    I barely have time just to do today’s picks but when this is over I’ll round up some results.

    The sport changed and the books couldn’t/wouldn’t respond. There are European books who were absolutely clueless.

    There were anomalies (mistakes) with live betting too. That has recently been closed up.

    Shit that interests me recently:

    I am a South Point guy. Brent Musberger and his brother & nephew with support from South Point owner, Michael Gaughn, started a sports wagering Internet/Sirius radio station, VSiN. I’ve posted about it.

    Years ago, I’m sitting in the sports book during baseball playoffs and I see this glass booth in the middle of the floor. It was the new VSiN studio. Oh, Brent Musberger! Sign my Dodgers ticket!

    Yesterday, NESN began broadcasting VSiN on television 7am-10am.. Boston is the first to pick up the broadcast.

    NESN is Boston cable channel owned by The Fenway Sports Group which also owns Red Sox & Bruins. NESN is the equivalent of YES/Yankees.

    John Henry is brilliant.

    VSiN on broadcast tv is unbelievable to this old man. The last card has fallen. The Red Sox have 4 hours a day devoted to sports wagering.

    Massachusetts hasn’t approved sports wagering yet. 40 min ride to Rhode Island.

    People are going to get sharper just through osmosis. You occasionally still see people at the window getting the introduction to placing a bet. That will become rarer and rarer.

    Musberger and company by virtue of being first are gonna crush.

    The world is a changin’
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 03-19-2019 at 04:39 PM.

  15. #19255
    Platinum duped_samaritan's Avatar
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    If you have BetDSI or Bookmaker accounts you should check your spam folder.

    I got an offer for $100 freeplay from each. Subject = "Easy $100 for a survey and March Madness offers" Looks like there is a 3x play-through and they will deduct the original $100 before cashing out.


    Terms and conditions apply. The $100 survey promotion is only for the bookmaker account listed in this email and is non-transferable and one-time only.Bonus is awarded in the currency of the account as a freeplay with a 3-time rollover. General house rules regarding freeplays apply.The survey promotion is only valid for 30 days from when your server sent this email.

    If you have to deal with support, go to your account pin number and set it to something you're willing to type into chat with live support. Super shady, but at least they aren't asking you to send your password in plaintext anymore.

    Also, if there was ever a site not reuse a password, these would be it.

  16. #19256
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    Been busy and 1st periods haven't been so red hot. No hard feelings, just didn't love how the first periods were portrayed as a lucky streak since some were -150 to -200.

    Ottawa/Vancouver under 6 -110
    Leafs -145

    ̶D̶e̶g̶e̶n̶ ̶B̶a̶s̶e̶b̶a̶l̶l̶ ̶p̶i̶c̶k̶s̶ ̶

    ̶J̶a̶y̶s̶/̶B̶r̶a̶v̶e̶s̶ ̶u̶n̶d̶e̶r̶ ̶9̶ ̶-̶1̶2̶0̶ ̶
    Y̶a̶n̶k̶e̶e̶s̶ ̶+̶1̶2̶5̶

    Edit: Hope no one took my degen picks. Hockey going to go 2-0 to make up for it.
    Last edited by simpdog; 03-20-2019 at 12:10 PM.

  17. #19257
    aka PP23 badguy23's Avatar
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    This place has turned into a shit show.

    Not even a Ncaa Tourney Bracket.

    Druff making a mockery of the most profitable thing this thread has ever seen 1st period overs in hockey!!

    Along with that Dallas under thing.

    I appreciate the work and anyone who followed got paid.

    As I told u all before pills are bad I'll expand on this next radio show. Put the Xanax back in your fanny pack bro.

  18. #19258
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Welcome back simpdog

    I will bet your Vancouver under tonight.

    GL

    Also, San Antonio's 9 game winning streak ends TONIGHT against the Heat.

    Miami +210 at San Antonio

  19. #19259
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    Name:  Capture999.PNG
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    jesus

  20. #19260
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    20-way parlay hits

    $25 becomes over $100k

    http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id...-turns-25-104k

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