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Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #9341
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post

    OK GL.

    Hope I'm wrong because I don't have action on it and you do.

    Your point is well taken if it's a blue chip prospect. If it was Michael Kopech coming up to make his first start I'd stay away. This kid was a 28 yard old rookie with moderate numbers in the Mexican league.

    To be fair he didn't completely go out there and embarrass himself. He did last 5 innings and that's what the team needed more than anything.
    I was inspired by Daly's post but too lazy to respond and jammed it in minutes before start

    Accepted:
    5/18/2017 9:14:51 PM
    Description:
    Mobile - Baseball - MLB - 914 Boston Red Sox/Oakland Athletics over 8 -110 for Game

    The poker player in you should have spotted a tell. Daly has not posted many MLB picks. So if you saw this you dove deep for the why.

    What clinched it for me was that they were stretching the AAA guy out from 50 pitches to 90 just before the call up.

    Sawks overs are a relic of days gone by and indulging in blind nostalgia will cost you. This was special.


    I was entertained

    MLB has been god this year. You may not like the sport compared to NFL or NBA but learn it if you like money.

    So many public favorites shitting the bed (Cubs/Sawks especially). Some consistent early surprises (Yankees/Milwaukee). Avoid the trick or treat teams (Detroit as an example)

    It's been the consistent story lines. It's rare that things run this pure

     
    Comments
      
      Charham: blind nostalgia rep
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 05-19-2017 at 05:42 AM.

  2. #9342
    cardinals, houston and seattle look pretty good to me today. all home, slightly better pitchers (short term) and better trending teams.
    Last edited by Charham; 05-19-2017 at 06:14 AM.

  3. #9343
    Milwaukee v Chicago total over intrigues me but they have not posted a line yet.

    Gonna be busy fighting Trump today and will prolly miss

    Dodgers -235 vs Marlins lefty smells like the definition stupidity wagering fade. Maybe not ML but there is something there to work with.

  4. #9344
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Milwaukee v Chicago total over intrigues me but they have not posted a line yet.

    Gonna be busy fighting Trump today and will prolly miss

    Dodgers -235 vs Marlins lefty smells like the definition stupidity wagering fade. Maybe not ML but there is something there to work with.
    I am wondering what the line would be if Kershaw was pitching. doesn't look like he will against miami, but -300 could be in the works. dodgers getting a lot of love with the lines.

  5. #9345
    Cubs total got away from me. 8 -125 ---> 8.5 now. Couldn't pull trigger. My bad

    Just missed shorting AMZN and Nasdaq. I am having one of those days when I can't gamble

    Have a fucking plan and stick to it

    It's a weird thing but sometimes I'll torch some money (Celtics wormhole) knowing that if it burns me it will then spur me to get head back in the game. However, days when you can't pull trigger at all just results in tilt and forced action.

    Sometimes you gotta have a feel for what kind of retard you are on a particular day and shut him down

    I am on massive monkey tilt watching charts. I am a follower to your picks today

     
    Comments
      
      BlunderMaker: a day without gambling is like a day without sunshine
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 05-19-2017 at 08:25 AM.

  6. #9346
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Cubs total got away from me. 8 -125 ---> 8.5 now. Couldn't pull trigger. My bad

    Just missed shorting AMZN and Nasdaq. I am having one of those days when I can't gamble

    Have a fucking plan and stick to it

    It's a weird thing but sometimes I'll torch some money (Celtics wormhole) knowing that if it burns me it will then spur me to get head back in the game. However, days when you can't pull trigger at all just results in tilt and forced action.

    Sometimes you gotta have a feel for what kind of retard you are on a particular day and shut him down

    I am on massive monkey tilt watching charts. I am a follower to your picks today
    its freezing in chicago and wind blowing in i believe so would avoid any overs.

  7. #9347
    Quote Originally Posted by Charham View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Cubs total got away from me. 8 -125 ---> 8.5 now. Couldn't pull trigger. My bad

    Just missed shorting AMZN and Nasdaq. I am having one of those days when I can't gamble

    Have a fucking plan and stick to it

    It's a weird thing but sometimes I'll torch some money (Celtics wormhole) knowing that if it burns me it will then spur me to get head back in the game. However, days when you can't pull trigger at all just results in tilt and forced action.

    Sometimes you gotta have a feel for what kind of retard you are on a particular day and shut him down

    I am on massive monkey tilt watching charts. I am a follower to your picks today
    its freezing in chicago and wind blowing in i believe so would avoid any overs.
    Yeah, it's moving against me.

    Too late

    Mobile - Baseball - MLB - 952 Milwaukee Brewers/Chicago Cubs over 8 -110 for Game

    Two rights don't make a wrong

    Mobile - Baseball - MLB - 952 Milwaukee Brewers/Chicago Cubs over 7 +100 for Game
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 05-19-2017 at 11:09 AM.

  8. #9348
    Love the new Cubs Eddie Bauer Edition

    88 pitches in 3 in innings. Is that possible? Can't believe I haven't locked this shit up already

  9. #9349
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Okay, I will eat crow on this one with Oakland/Boston and the over last night.

    Wasn't even close.

    I think of Michael Wacha whenever I see a pitcher killing it in the minors, then translating it (at least for some time) in MLB. Wacha wasn't a great prospect to my knowledge.

    I will say that I always doubt myself when I disagree with a bet Daly posts.

  10. #9350
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Okay, I will eat crow on this one with Oakland/Boston and the over last night.

    Wasn't even close.

    I think of Michael Wacha whenever I see a pitcher killing it in the minors, then translating it (at least for some time) in MLB. Wacha wasn't a great prospect to my knowledge.

    I will say that I always doubt myself when I disagree with a bet Daly posts.
    You do love the prospects. I'll say that

  11. #9351
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Love the new Cubs Eddie Bauer Edition

    88 pitches in 3 in innings. Is that possible? Can't believe I haven't locked this shit up already
    close, looking good. rain delay. it is cold, windy and crappy in chicago but will be moving through.

  12. #9352
    Quote Originally Posted by Charham View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Love the new Cubs Eddie Bauer Edition

    88 pitches in 3 in innings. Is that possible? Can't believe I haven't locked this shit up already
    close, looking good. rain delay. it is cold, windy and crappy in chicago but will be moving through.
    Would be funny that a rare 2 unit bet loses with runners 2nd & 3rd and no outs.

    Live had total @ 10.5

    But I know they'll get this in. God wants me to fade the Dodgers with profit. He has a plan that excludes Druff

    I ain't Tim Tebow but I hear things too

    AGon is back and Turner is out. Nuff said
    Marlin's kid is a lefty who fared well against Dodgers last year and last start was good.
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 05-19-2017 at 02:51 PM.

  13. #9353
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post

    Would be funny that a rare 2 unit bet loses with runners 2nd & 3rd and no outs.
    Your bet will push. Still sucks if this game is called.

  14. #9354
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Okay, I will eat crow on this one with Oakland/Boston and the over last night.

    Wasn't even close.

    I think of Michael Wacha whenever I see a pitcher killing it in the minors, then translating it (at least for some time) in MLB. Wacha wasn't a great prospect to my knowledge.

    I will say that I always doubt myself when I disagree with a bet Daly posts.
    Was Wacha 28 when he came up after pitching a year in the Mexican league?

  15. #9355
    Tomorrow
    Cubs Arrieta (-200) v Brewers Anderson

    Wow. The power of the Cubs brand

    The total is not out yet. Guaranteed shit show ... and they know it

    Everything is out but this for tomorrow
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 05-19-2017 at 05:39 PM.

  16. #9356
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Tomorrow
    Cubs Arrieta v Brewers Anderson (-200)

    Wow. The power of the Cubs brand

    The total is not out yet. Guaranteed shit show
    Help a neophyte out. What do we need to do with this?

  17. #9357
    Quote Originally Posted by Tellafriend View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Tomorrow
    Cubs Arrieta v Brewers Anderson (-200)

    Wow. The power of the Cubs brand

    The total is not out yet. Guaranteed shit show
    Help a neophyte out. What do we need to do with this?
    I am praying to jump on the release of an 8.

    I understand weather is an issue (rain). They make a big deal out of wind blowing in or over fence. That'll be reflected in the total too.

    Whateverthefuck the number is it'll be too low Imo. The dreadfulness of these two will not be fully accounted for. Two good offenses

    Google SBR Odds MLB. Find the BetOnline number (they are usually first) and double click for the line history compared to your book. Get a feel for wether it's rising or falling. It'll rise imo. I want to be first

    The -200 Cubs line is insane. I'm supposed to play the law of large numbers with respect to value. I really don't gamble that way. I don't put in that kind of volume to realize that value. This is a shit show coin flip. More suited to live betting for me. Live betting heavily follows the pregame line. Regardless if the start of the game reveals different performance.

    Let me see the cards first.
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 05-19-2017 at 06:00 PM.

  18. #9358
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Tellafriend View Post

    Help a neophyte out. What do we need to do with this?
    I am praying to jump on the release of an 8.

    I understand weather is an issue (rain). They make a big deal out of wind blowing in or over fence. That'll be reflected in the total too.

    Whateverthefuck the number is it'll be too low Imo. The dreadfulness of these two will not be fully accounted for. Two good offenses

    Google SBR Odds MLB. Find the BetOnline number (they are usually first) and double click for the line history compared to your book. Get a feel for wether it's rising or falling. It'll rise imo. I want to be first
    Gotcha. Thank you!

    Does this make a difference ? (CHC) Jake Arrieta (R) -- just saw it on a betting site. Is it old news?

  19. #9359
    Quote Originally Posted by Tellafriend View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post

    I am praying to jump on the release of an 8.

    I understand weather is an issue (rain). They make a big deal out of wind blowing in or over fence. That'll be reflected in the total too.

    Whateverthefuck the number is it'll be too low Imo. The dreadfulness of these two will not be fully accounted for. Two good offenses

    Google SBR Odds MLB. Find the BetOnline number (they are usually first) and double click for the line history compared to your book. Get a feel for wether it's rising or falling. It'll rise imo. I want to be first
    Gotcha. Thank you!

    Does this make a difference ? (CHC) Jake Arrieta (R) -- just saw it on a betting site. Is it old news?
    It's Arrieta v Anderson. Arrieta has a great reputation from last year. He is several clicks down this year on fastball. His other stuff suffers as a result too. But they still love him.

    Anderson is a bum. Both guys have similar numbers actually

    Look, the power of Chicago fans put David Ross in the finals of Dancing With the Stars. The story goes the judges looked appalled. That's what you're dealing with. Read PLOP's stuff. See?

     
    Comments
      
      Tellafriend: It's been a long, long week. Sorry.

  20. #9360
    Lebron not even in the final 3 for MVP.

    Sorry but this is even more motivation. I like taking the Cavs to win the championship at this point.

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