Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #32881
    Diamond BCR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BCR View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post

    Yes, 7.5 coming but I’ll do something live. I just gotta believe they come out with the idea of slowing each respective opponent down. Of course, that’ll get punted after the first cheap goal.

    I am filled with self loathing for not betting the live totals over. I was kind of hypnotized by the action. I did 2 Oilers next goals @ some sweet plus money (+138) particularly after the AV’s goalie injury. I had the PL +133 so I wet myself when the empty netter was scored. I should be happy but I spotted weakness in my game when I reviewed the tape.

    I have a Warriors future so I’m really covered with the Finals

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    I have included my Vlad future cause I need to pay that off somehow.

    The Celts will be a little gassed. It’s the NBA and it’s jacking 3’s. Do they fall? Do they miss? It’s plinko. I’d lean Warriors ML with some chalky partner like the Mets or Astros. As sick as I am I don’t need that action. Perhaps the NBA playoff blowout trend continues. -3.5 won’t matter.

    Speaking of paying off…. Daly was opining some nonsense about paying off his mortgage early. I mocked him cause sacrificing low interest long term debt is just plain country stupid. There is good debt and bad debt, yada yada. Garrett came to Daly’s defense so the forum was :e*tertained by the pair.

    I’m being advised to pay off my mortgage. My gambling markets and sports was brought up. I do have a youthful blowup that is part of my legend too. I like to think this is all a fun little side hustle and no one knows but it came up with the financial guy. The spousal unit will never have to worry when some bookie drops me in Lake Mead…. or some financial disaster (Russia) occurs.

    I was gonna save the story for GA but being passive aggressive is sweet release

    I see a lot of MLB I like. Noodling
    I’ve noticed a pretty heavy trend in these one team is considerably more rested series that the team coming from the more recent war fares well in the first half against team with a little rust. Boston after war with Bucks went into Miami, led by 8 at half, Miami won by 11. The rest factor seems a second half phenomenon.

    I’ll take a gander at Celts first half and then GS second and see if it plays out with value.

    All I had to do was fade Currys best Finals quarter ever. Never in doubt.

    ilter by time
    Single
    @
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    Open
    Jun 2 • 2022
    Ticket ID: 47104645
    Moneyline - 1st Half: BOS Celtics
    Live
    BOS Celtics @ GS Warriors
    56-54
    3rd Quarter 24:00
    Wager:
    $500.00
    Pot. Payout:
    $1080.00

     
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      Sanlmar: Tips cap

  2. #32882
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Just wow.

    Game went as predicted.

    SD up 4-1 going to 9th.

    Taylor Rogers who has been money all year picked tonight to blow it. 4-4, runner on 3rd, no out.

    Bye bye





    Edit: Yep, lost in a walkoff.

    One of those games you know you picked it right and you still lose.

     
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      BCR: Brutal loss: you move on and pretend they didn’t happen
      
      Sanlmar: I saw the end of that game and I’m still shaking my head

  3. #32883
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    I’m marking Swiatek as a win. She may never lose a set in my lifetime

    I said yesterday I have no feel NHL anymore and I continue to leak like a dummy. I am fucking done. I’m putting NHL in jail with NBA.

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  4. #32884
    Diamond BCR's Avatar
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    Single
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    +117
    Open
    Jun 3 • 2022
    Ticket ID: 4712390249
    Run Line: CLE Guardians -1.5
    CLE Guardians @ BAL Orioles

    My pick for tonight. Haven’t ridden tribe much. Bieber on mound. Feels like a spot.

     
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      Sanlmar: Rare solid full game favorite.

  5. #32885
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Books taking back millions past couple days

    Lightning, Warriors, Dodgers, Edmonton under, Joker

    Public is getting destroyed.

  6. #32886
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    This might be a little too hardcore but it has to put in this thread. You have to possess a minimal hatred of legalized books going in.

    Barstool Sports, David Portnoy being their usual sketchy selves. If you’re looking for a bad guy this is the easy take.

    The true evil is the gaming commission. In this case it was Colorado. The state doesn’t matter. I have always aledged Gaming Commissions are trade associations and the notion that legalized wagering somehow protects and benefits the bettor is naive.

    The principal here is James Salinas.
    Salinas is one of the most successful sports betting contest winners in history, having earned over $1Million in prize money during the past few seasons. In 2015 Salinas won the largest NFL Sports Betting Contest in the world, the Westgate Resorts Super Contest, and has scored multiple cashes near the top of the leaderboard the last few years.

    The denouement of this little tale is that gaming commissions ultimately drive action to the offshores and locals.

    Daly, Druff and I are the last geographically fortunate wagerers and my luck is about to run out. The Golden Age of Wagering is drawing to a close.

    Chess anyone?


  7. #32887
    Plutonium lol wow's Avatar
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    Reeeeeeeeeeeeeeelax sal brons a billionaire lakers will be back next year

  8. #32888
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    This might be a little too hardcore but it has to put in this thread. You have to possess a minimal hatred of legalized books going in.

    Barstool Sports, David Portnoy being their usual sketchy selves. If you’re looking for a bad guy this is the easy take.

    The true evil is the gaming commission. In this case it was Colorado. The state doesn’t matter. I have always aledged Gaming Commissions are trade associations and the notion that legalized wagering somehow protects and benefits the bettor is naive.

    The principal here is James Salinas.
    Salinas is one of the most successful sports betting contest winners in history, having earned over $1Million in prize money during the past few seasons. In 2015 Salinas won the largest NFL Sports Betting Contest in the world, the Westgate Resorts Super Contest, and has scored multiple cashes near the top of the leaderboard the last few years.

    The denouement of this little tale is that gaming commissions ultimately drive action to the offshores and locals.

    Daly, Druff and I are the last geographically fortunate wagerers and my luck is about to run out. The Golden Age of Wagering is drawing to a close.

    Chess anyone?

    Think I had posted the original a few pages back. It’s fucking criminal what these legal books on either side of the pond are getting away with. They aren’t bookmakers they are leeches.

    I think we have a few years left but I wouldn’t be surprised if the peak has been put in.

  9. #32889
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    [QUOTE=Sanlmar;1034335]
    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post

    Speaking of paying off…. Daly was opining some nonsense about paying off his mortgage early. I mocked him cause sacrificing low interest long term debt is just plain country stupid. There is good debt and bad debt, yada yada. Garrett came to Daly’s defense so the forum was :e*tertained by the pair.

    I’m being advised to pay off my mortgage. My gambling markets and sports was brought up. I do have a youthful blowup that is part of my legend too. I like to think this is all a fun little side hustle and no one knows but it came up with the financial guy. The spousal unit will never have to worry when some bookie drops me in Lake Mead…. or some financial disaster (Russia) occurs.

    I was gonna save the story for GA but being passive aggressive is sweet release

    I see a lot of MLB I like. Noodling
    I’m fairly certian I said on the record that paying off a mortgage early when you have it a 3% and the current rate is 5% is mathematically foolish……… however

    I did also say I’ve never met anyone who has truly retired without owning their home(s). If you aren’t paying the bank anything it’s possible to live off social security alone. If you have housing payments including homeowners insurance (and have a car payment or credit card debit) you need to have 7 figures + saved.

    Both are correct and diametricaly opposed.

  10. #32890
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post

    Think I had posted the original a few pages back. It’s fucking criminal what these legal books on either side of the pond are getting away with. They aren’t bookmakers they are leeches.

    I think we have a few years left but I wouldn’t be surprised if the peak has been put in.
    Portnoy was calling Salinas “a crybaby”. You know who doesn’t do that? Offshores. Where do these new books get their people? Legal sports wagering got too big too fast and the business and gaming commissions are populated by people with no skills. You go to legal books like Circa or SouthPoint and their managers and supervisors are 60 and 70 year old guys who know the business.

    My biggest beef… and this is where I disagree with you about “a couple of years” is the notion that legalizing and licensing bookmaking somehow protected and benefitted the consumer. Gaming commissions don’t give any cares about the consumer. Legalization is a pure money grab. The exact moment a book is blessed by a Gaming Commission it is tainted. not years later.

    I’m in a couple of Discord’s. My intention was to harvest ideas. They are populated by legal book consumers with their “free bets” odds boosters and cash outs. SGP parlays and shit prop prices. What shocks me is the juice they are accustomed to.

    I went on YouTube the other day and I got a curated video from Pub Sports Radio. The guy in the video had the game he was discussing with odds scrolling at he bottom of the page while he talked. I couldn’t believe the number that was so casually accepted.

    I used to use Sports Book Review as kind of an aggregator of lines offered for games. Now they just have 3 or 4 books. They don’t list the legal books. That is something I’d like to see daily just for the lulz.

    I have zero intention of betting in Massachusetts. I have never driven to NH or Rhode Island to place a bet. I’m really not a degenerate despite my self flagellation. If I can’t get dime lines for baseball I’ll just find something else to do during the summer. There is lots of gamble available in other markets besides sports.

    “Months” not “years” except for raking the new customer bonuses.

    The only faint hope is that public ridicule like this video might help matters. The luscious irony is that VSIN was bought by Draftkings. . How perfect is that? The sports wagering ecosystem is just plain poison
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 06-04-2022 at 07:40 AM.

  11. #32891
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Remember the Postle guy? The poker player who cheated in a legal card room. Todd ends up in litigation with Postle.

    During the whole affair Todd never questioned the role of the gaming commission in this matter. You know, making sure the games are clean. I mean what exactly would a gaming commission’s role be otherwise. Do they help with the snack bar menu?

    I tuned the story out after a while. My take was none of Todd’s headaches would have occurred if the hammer came down on Postle from the state. Todd attacked the problem on a micro not macro level.

    Maybe Todd did address the lack legal oversight. I doubt it. Todd was always an advocate of “light regulation”. You know, legal but not too legal. Todd wasn’t likely to throw stones cause he never changes his position.

    Todd has been completely silent regarding legalized sports wagering oversight as well - aside from the damn Indians in California.

  12. #32892
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    1:10pm Las Vegas time

    Hopefully you wake up in time to hit the book.
    Fedde v Mahle - I know you know
    Poker is paid for today. yw

    Full game is the preferred choice.

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  13. #32893
    Platinum Jayjami's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Remember the Postle guy? The poker player who cheated in a legal card room. Todd ends up in litigation with Postle.

    During the whole affair Todd never questioned the role of the gaming commission in this matter. You know, making sure the games are clean. I mean what exactly would a gaming commission’s role be otherwise. Do they help with the snack bar menu?

    I tuned the story out after a while. My take was none of Todd’s headaches would have occurred if the hammer came down on Postle from the state. Todd attacked the problem on a micro not macro level.

    Maybe Todd did address the lack legal oversight. I doubt it. Todd was always an advocate of “light regulation”. You know, legal but not too legal. Todd wasn’t likely to throw stones cause he never changes his position.

    Todd has been completely silent regarding legalized sports wagering oversight as well - aside from the damn Indians in California.
    Legalized sports betting is coming to California. The hold up is the Indian Casinos want a monopoly, they have a shit ton of cash, and own a lot of whores in the legislature. It’s going to happen because in California, the Democrats, never, ever, turn down a potential revenue source. Just a matter of time.

  14. #32894
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    I think we have a few years left but I wouldn’t be surprised if the peak has been put in.
    I do wish you would expand on this thought you choose to reiterate.

    Meanwhile, back in the real world

    Eliminating sharp action and promoting parlays is a stated business strategy. Investment banks can relate easily, I’m sure


    DraftKings Inc. (DKNG) CEO Jason Robins Presents at Goldman Sachs 2022 Travel and Leisure Conference (Transcript)

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    Full transcript

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/451...edium=referral

    Fun Draftking tweets about identifying their “B” employees and perhaps lowering salaries and not grieving if they are lured away. Which is just nonsense masking the third rail of LAYOFFS

    Fading stupid gambling stocks is more profitable than parlays

  15. #32895
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Can’t talk shit w/o putting some picks out there for ridicule

    Sawks full game is a Druff bet if I ever saw one.
    Red Sox started @ +110 or whatever. Wacha vs Syndegaard. This is a Syndegaard nostalgia deal. Wacha has been elite. Angels losing streak. Trout in funk. Sawks smashing.

    The rest are obvious. Astros my favorite.

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  16. #32896
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    Live bet Warriors +8.5 +120

  17. #32897
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    Live bet Warriors +8.5 +120
    Immediately felt like a genius and regretted not dropping more on it.

    Then later on wished I had bet more so I would have hedged......or followed San's advice

    NBA = No Bets Allowed

  18. #32898
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    FYI you guys should fade Mike Minor for as long as the Reds keep running him out. He has sucked big time since 2020, and this year he's even worse because he's coming off a long injury.

  19. #32899
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    My one pick today:

    Kansas City (Bubic) -108 vs. Baltimore (Lyles)

    Battle of two last place teams. Lyles has the better overall numbers, but has allowed 3-5 runs in his last 6 starts. Bubic was bombed on 3 occasions -- the last being May 4 -- and has an ERA over 9. However, he shut out the Astros over 5.3 innings last time out.

    Don't blame me if Bubic gets bombed again, but I think he's actually going to pitch better than Lyles this time.

  20. #32900
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    My one pick today:

    Kansas City (Bubic) -108 vs. Baltimore (Lyles)

    Battle of two last place teams. Lyles has the better overall numbers, but has allowed 3-5 runs in his last 6 starts. Bubic was bombed on 3 occasions -- the last being May 4 -- and has an ERA over 9. However, he shut out the Astros over 5.3 innings last time out.

    Don't blame me if Bubic gets bombed again, but I think he's actually going to pitch better than Lyles this time.

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