Okay, after much internal debate, I decided I'm not going to let the MEMPHIS UNDER train pass me by, just because of one bad pick.
Memphis once again scored under 100 (as did their opponent) last time out.
There are other reasons for this pick, which I won't bother getting into.
Indiana at Memphis - Under 202.5 (203 on Bovada right now)
Originally Posted by Mintjewlips
ITS NOT OVER
DOUBLING DOWN
Boston +2 2H
BOSTON LIVE SECOND HALF ML +117
BOSTON OVER 115.5 TOTAL POINTS
BOSTON LIVE ML+160
"Druff would suck his own dick if it were long enough"- Brandon "drexel" Gerson
"ann coulter literally has more common sense than pfa."-Sonatine
"Real grinders supports poker fraud"- Ray Davis
"DRILLED HER GOOD"- HONGKONGER
Huge letdown.
174 points with 3:49 left
35 points then get scored, and I lose.
badguy you better have some good tennis tonight.
we got this
Djokovic is the pick
He decided to stop fixing games last yr.
Was hoping for better than a -138 favorite but ok
I'm on Nadal fwiw
Who’s taking attendance?
Djokovic is wiping the floor with Nadal so far
But I realize it's his serve
Thinking of taking some Nadal.
1/27/2019 3:59:09 AM
DESCRIPTION:
TABLET - DJOKOVIC, NOVAK VS. NADAL, RAFAEL MATCH WINNER R. NADAL +240
The end of the 1977 Star Wars is on TBS for those commercial breaks.
When I want to seem old, I tell the 20s kids that I saw it in the theater first run (which I did).
joker in god mode rn, but surely this is not sustainable?
1/25/2019 5:31:48 AM
DESCRIPTION:
TABLET - TENNIS - ATP - 80104 DJOKOVIC, NOVAK -125 FOR MATCH
TABLET - DJOKOVIC, NOVAK VS. NADAL, RAFAEL TOTAL NUMBER OF GAMES OVER 37.5 -118
How did you get -125 at this point?1/25/2019 5:31:48 AM
DESCRIPTION:
TABLET - TENNIS - ATP - 80104 DJOKOVIC, NOVAK -125 FOR MATCH
How did you get -125 at this point?
That’s why I included the date.
Just demonstrating I am somewhat freerolling. Put another way I am pissing away a win. Never expected such dominance.
Should not be close to a pick. Rams should prob be favored although I did not look at their data. I did however comb the Patriots data and will reveal it at the end of my post and you will be stunned.Why should it be close to PK?
Most people accept that Patterson is one of the best kickoff returners in the game and he is aggressive about running it out from what I can tell. I haven't crunched the numbers but I wouldn't be surprised if the Patriots had a longer kickoff return than their opponent 66%+ of the time.
I am not trying to be a contrarian or an ass for no reason, I am genuinely curious of your reasoning. I actually know nothing about the Rams kickoff return game, so maybe there is a specific reason for your reasoning?
First thing to think about when betting on almost anything (especially props) is numbers, not " how good someone is or who good they are regarded". It's no different than betting on sides and totals. If you go with personal opinion on how you feel about teams and players instead of combing analytic value long enough you are going to get creamed so hard and that's why 99.999 % of people who bet regularly on sports lose either because they have terrible line value or because the juice ate them up.
Anyhow, the Patriots have played 18 real games this season. I just went thru every game log and I missed one of them somehow, but of the 17 weeks I have just combed thru if you bet on the Patriots every week on this prop you would be 5-12 and be stuck a fair amount. Also there were certainly a lot of weeks where the patriots had 0 returns
In other words if you had bet this every week this season vs the Patriots you would be getting +150 and winning at close to 71 %
This is a play you want to put down max money everywhere you can and if it loses then it loses. Bet on enough of these over the course of a year and you should be a big winner.
The reason why books keep offering props like these week in and week out is because most people are not going to put in the hours of work to find value and they will just fire on what they think is going to happen vs what is likely to happen and the books clean up.
Last edited by chinamaniac; 01-27-2019 at 02:11 AM.
I think there will be an announcement Nadal was struck with polio after the match.
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