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Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #30201
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Lot of strikeout lines set at 5.5 tonight. Only pitcher thatís gone over was wainwright.
    Iím experimenting with strikeout props Ö. I posted 2 the other day.

    Heavy lean to over, of course. The over juice is ludicrous. Today there was a pitcher Moore who has never gone over 4 and they offered 5. He finished 3.

    I do 2 a day.

    I think itís an easy calculation/handicap.

    Youíre onto something I feel.

    I have no idea how to do RHE. I miss those.
    Iíve been betting strikeout props for years. They have caught up a bit but itís still exploitable off you catch it right.

    The 2007 Braves were the 57 Yankees of not striking out. Randy Johnson Pedro and Clemens could get three IP each vs them and walk away with 2Kís. One of the easiest prop angles Iíve ever had.

    This year has been strange. Before the sticky stuff crackdown overs were going 65% plus. The next 30 days the under went 80% as books failed to adjust.

  2. #30202
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    If you want to pick up a few hundred bucks I got a arb.

    ďSunw@gerĒ books has Paul Casey at 11th or worse -110

    Heís readily available to finish top 10 at +150

  3. #30203
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post

    Iím experimenting with strikeout props Ö. I posted 2 the other day.

    Heavy lean to over, of course. The over juice is ludicrous. Today there was a pitcher Moore who has never gone over 4 and they offered 5. He finished 3.

    I do 2 a day.

    I think itís an easy calculation/handicap.

    Youíre onto something I feel.

    I have no idea how to do RHE. I miss those.
    Iíve been betting strikeout props for years. They have caught up a bit but itís still exploitable off you catch it right.

    The 2007 Braves were the 57 Yankees of not striking out. Randy Johnson Pedro and Clemens could get three IP each vs them and walk away with 2Kís. One of the easiest prop angles Iíve ever had.

    This year has been strange. Before the sticky stuff crackdown overs were going 65% plus. The next 30 days the under went 80% as books failed to adjust.
    Shit. I should've thought of this.

    Big missed opportunity there.

  4. #30204
    DailyBaseballData.com

    I used to write notes on post-its when I’m doing my thing during the day. I write down stuff like “live bet Angels after 5th” or “bet Dodgers team total if juice drops to -110”. and stick it in my pocket. Didn’t always bring them back out in the heat of battle.

    My wife ends up washing my notes and they reappear in the dryers lint tray.


    So I started writing my ideas and stuff in a notebook (only because we ran out of post-its) and it’s really really interesting to reread when the dust has settled or those notes from a few days ago.

    If I was a professional I would write any observations during or after the game next to pregame notes. What was Urias like on July 27th? Instead of relying on Rotowire or all that.

    Love reading “Brewers team total?” How close to greatness I sometimes come.

    Lol, discipline.
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 07-27-2021 at 11:29 PM.

  5. #30205
    Gold JeffDime's Avatar
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    Iím going to do this with a 50K Bankroll and letís hope itís not dust in a few months.

    Bets for Mon July26 - August 1 (Week 1)

    Menís Olympic Golf - Justin Thomas $1300 at +1100

    No Fucking Way Parlay - Justin Thomas Menís Olympic +1100/ Lydia Ko Womenís Olympic +1800 $100 at +22700

    Start $50,000 Remaining $48,600 Last Week +/- Not Applicable

     
    Comments
      
      JoeD: �� GL
      
      jsearles22: Good luck dude
      
      Sanlmar: Stay calm. This will be a good follow for the thread.

  6. #30206
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Here's one for today:

    Boston (Houck) at Toronto (Matz) - Under 8.5 -121 - Game 2 (7 inn)

     
    Comments
      
      Sanlmar: Well, done. Unders are back in vogue?
      
      jsearles22: GG

  7. #30207
    LPGA

    Alison Lee +450 to finish in the Top 10 at the ISPS Honda World in Ireland.

    Most of the top 10 to 20 golfers are out for the Olympics. It's now or never for her + she's been playing well that last several weeks.

    Should be a good early morning sweat.

  8. #30208
    Im not usually a parlay guy, but Iím on KC and u5.5 both first 5 at +400 tonight. Bubic will be nails again and this is a great bet or he gets rocked and it loses. So the +400 hook is better than just betting Royals +160
    It's hilarious that we as a society think everyone can be a dr, a lawyer, an engineer. Some people are just fucking stupid. Why can't we just accept that?

  9. #30209
    Covid blew up my favorite game

    Phillies (Wheeler) vs Nat’s.


    Rockies scratched Chi Chi for Covid. I liked over before and I like it better at lower

    Colorado Rockies/Los Angeles Angels over 9 -105 for Game

    Strikeout prop for Pipes
    Michael Wacha of the Tampa Bay Rays will have under 4.5 strikeouts

     
    Comments
      
      NickyPipes: Brother I just saw this and turned in the game. Wow shocked to see MW with so many K
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 07-28-2021 at 03:08 PM.

  10. #30210
    Took Rays -106 live just now, best late inning team in baseball seems like good value

  11. #30211
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Covid blew up my favorite game

    Phillies (Wheeler) vs Natís.


    Rockies scratched Chi Chi for Covid. I liked over before and I like it better at lower

    Colorado Rockies/Los Angeles Angels over 9 -105 for Game

    Strikeout prop for Pipes
    Michael Wacha of the Tampa Bay Rays will have under 4.5 strikeouts
    Unlucky with Wacha. He normally doesnít pitch that deep (5 innings tonight). If I had looked earlier I would have joined you on that one. Itís a good bet. I waited to bet live as a way to ďavoidĒ Wacha

    Will start checking these strikeout props starting tomorrow. Nice angle, I think Iíve only bet 1 strike out prop ever and that was Ivan Nova over like 4 or 5 few years ago for Sunday night game at little league field. It won and here I am years laters circling back. I was 1-0 why did I never look again? What made me look that night?

     
    Comments
      
      Sanlmar: Glad you didn’t. Yankees are dreadful.

  12. #30212
    Lighting a small candle on fire in memoriam of all the old school San Fran Giants posters and Dodgers faders from years gone by. I miss you guys. I’m the last soldier.

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    Buehler is phenomenal. His peripherals have a whiff of inflation but he is legit.

    I will punt this off for the brand.

    Anyone see any stories speculating about Bellinger’s punk attitude this year? I’m watching him at bat yesterday. A pitch on the outside black is called a strike. Bellinger literally goes for a long walk. Mind you, you are really not supposed to even leave the box but Bellinger was gone a looong time and in the process he shows up the plate umpire. The umpire is pissed. He has his hands on his hips staring down Bellinger.

    I’m not gonna talk about the Wild Throw to 3rd.

    I just see all kinds of other little queues that the money may have gone to his head and he was living large before spring trading. He wasn’t ready or in shape. He’s a disaster. You gotta earn the right to be a punk.

  13. #30213
    Gold JeffDime's Avatar
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    Not a single dropped shot all day for JTÖ18 fucking pars. SMH. What else can be said. My Olympic Viewing Experience has not been very enjoyable so far.

  14. #30214

    Quote Originally Posted by JeffDime View Post
    Iím going to do this with a 50K Bankroll and letís hope itís not dust in a few months.

    Bets for Mon July26 - August 1 (Week 1)

    Menís Olympic Golf - Justin Thomas $1300 at +1100

    No Fucking Way Parlay - Justin Thomas Menís Olympic +1100/ Lydia Ko Womenís Olympic +1800 $100 at +22700

    Start $50,000 Remaining $48,600 Last Week +/- Not Applicable


    Dimebag...Brother what site can I sign up on to get the same lines and props etc? ty...only Tail. no fade. gd luck.

     
    Comments
      
      JeffDime: Thanks Box. I’ll send you a PM in the morning.

  15. #30215
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Lighting a small candle on fire in memoriam of all the old school San Fran Giants posters and Dodgers faders from years gone by. I miss you guys. Iím the last soldier.

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    Buehler is phenomenal. His peripherals have a whiff of inflation but he is legit.

    I will punt this off for the brand.

    Anyone see any stories speculating about Bellingerís punk attitude this year? Iím watching him at bat yesterday. A pitch on the outside black is called a strike. Bellinger literally goes for a long walk. Mind you, you are really not supposed to even leave the box but Bellinger was gone a looong time and in the process he shows up the plate umpire. The umpire is pissed. He has his hands on his hips staring down Bellinger.

    Iím not gonna talk about the Wild Throw to 3rd.

    I just see all kinds of other little queues that the money may have gone to his head and he was living large before spring trading. He wasnít ready or in shape. Heís a disaster. You gotta earn the right to be a punk.
    Bellinger is very lost this year. He has a problem with getting into slumps and just becomes absolutely terrible. Automatic K. This dates back to the 2017 postseason. Doesn't help that he's 6'4" and has to constantly battle to avoid the strikeout in the first place.

    You're right about Buehler, he's legit. The "experts" were saying he's going to be a fantasy bust. I kept him anyway. Too bad I also had Mike Soroka, Keston Hiura, Zac Gallen, Bellinger, and various other donkeys. Won't repeat my win from last year.

    Anyway, Walker is the ace now. All that money to Kershaw and Bauer, and it's Buehler & Urias carrying the team pitching-wise.

  16. #30216
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    One of the worst mistakes you can do is chase when you blow it. One of the main euro punters called for Jazz at 150-1.

    Iím jumping in late at 14-1

  17. #30217
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Lighting a small candle on fire in memoriam of all the old school San Fran Giants posters and Dodgers faders from years gone by. I miss you guys. I’m the last soldier.

    Name:  878A69AB-6FFA-4326-BC63-4B5B5ACE6033.jpeg
Views: 117
Size:  104.6 KB

    Buehler is phenomenal. His peripherals have a whiff of inflation but he is legit.

    I will punt this off for the brand.

    Anyone see any stories speculating about Bellinger’s punk attitude this year? I’m watching him at bat yesterday. A pitch on the outside black is called a strike. Bellinger literally goes for a long walk. Mind you, you are really not supposed to even leave the box but Bellinger was gone a looong time and in the process he shows up the plate umpire. The umpire is pissed. He has his hands on his hips staring down Bellinger.

    I’m not gonna talk about the Wild Throw to 3rd.

    I just see all kinds of other little queues that the money may have gone to his head and he was living large before spring trading. He wasn’t ready or in shape. He’s a disaster. You gotta earn the right to be a punk.
    Bellinger is very lost this year. He has a problem with getting into slumps and just becomes absolutely terrible. Automatic K. This dates back to the 2017 postseason. Doesn't help that he's 6'4" and has to constantly battle to avoid the strikeout in the first place.

    You're right about Buehler, he's legit. The "experts" were saying he's going to be a fantasy bust. I kept him anyway. Too bad I also had Mike Soroka, Keston Hiura, Zac Gallen, Bellinger, and various other donkeys. Won't repeat my win from last year.

    Anyway, Walker is the ace now. All that money to Kershaw and Bauer, and it's Buehler & Urias carrying the team pitching-wise.
    Bases loaded 2 out and Bellinger due up.

    Why are they pulling Cueto up 4-0?

    Automatic out. Just dumb

    Zaidi has done everything right, so far…... Needs to talk to his analytics guys

  18. #30218
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Giants Series Prices +150 for Game
    Value bet. Not in lovin it. Frigging Cueto. Maybe a trade? One time
    Dodgers made Cueto look like Luis Tiant reborn. I thought Cueto would go all 9. I tickled the complete game prop for lulz.

    Giants own the Dodgers this year.


    Tigers are going to carefully place their cherished starter Mize in a hermetically sealed box after very few innings.

    I am going to unload live when the relief comes in on the total over unless everyone else does the same thing. It would be better if both teams get their bullpen simultaneously. What was the total yesterday? 30?

    Edit
    Top of 4th … Orioles are hacking and the outs are coming too quick …. Mize has a great pitch count …. Not ideal… I need Mize out.

    We move on
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 07-29-2021 at 04:08 PM.

  19. #30219
    Gold JeffDime's Avatar
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    Lost ball struck in a tree on the 2nd hole pretty much closes up the curtains on JT. I really liked him to do well here. When he missed the short putt on the 5th yesterday to get his round started, those can sort of jolt a player and he just never got out of his head. Think Iím going to take the rest of this week off. Routing for Dalyís horses now. But canít watch this shit anymore. Very frustrating 20 holes of play. Lost ball is kind of a mercy killing. Take the bet out to the back and put it down. Already moving on.

  20. #30220
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    I have to say if they played the upcoming season 16 times Chase young would win DPOY more than once.

    There is value in that +1600 line. How much is up for debate

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