*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[Dan Druff]

I was admiring your Portland pick and was a fan of the Utah plays. Used it a couple times

I swear to you I looked at the overtime prop at halftime 55-55.

In fairness, these are the only 2 situations where you deign to offer any explanation at all for your bet.

Deign-do something that one considers to be beneath one's dignity.

"she did not deign to answer the maid's question"

Lay that word on your kid and he might get into Duke - lol Mulva

The explanations I gave for my Portland and Utah picks wasn't the entire story. It was just part of the process. I never liked handicapping based upon "X team did Y in the past 5 games", but in some cases that really does make a difference.

Last year I was a big time OT magnet on my unders, and seemingly only when it was winning. If I'm getting my under blown out by 20 points, it never seems to go to OT.

Anyway, I survived. Under covered by 7 despite OT. That's how you know it was a good pick.

[Sanlmar]

Well it was something that consistently worked which was unique this year.

[Daly]

MOBILE - FOOTBALL - NCAA - 255 NOTRE DAME +12½ -110 FOR GAME

Clemson suspensions

I saw Clemson vs BC and was not impressed. Should have crushed BC who had key injuries. Didn’t

Thoughts?

I’ve been thinking it. ND plus the points or bust.

[Dan Druff]

Utah covered the under once again.

Was very close, but it squeezed by. I think that's like 7 or 8 straight unders for Utah. But I haven't bet the last two because I didn't feel great about them. Liked Portland much, much better tonight, so I stuck with just that.

[Sanlmar]

The explanations I gave for my Portland and Utah picks wasn't the entire story. It was just part of the process. I never liked handicapping based upon "X team did Y in the past 5 games", but in some cases that really does make a difference.

“Recent performance is over rated.” I recall hearing this before from you.

I could go on for pages

How about this:

Sports are about adjusting to your competition. I’m doing X. Opponents figure out a scheme to beat X. I then do Y until opponents scheme that successfully too.

That is 95% of baseball. You gotta execute the plan too but you feel me. I know you do

What I did a month ago is less meaningful than yesterday.

This year NFL is a dramatic example of how teams and performance change.

It’s not singularly important but it’s weighted heavy in the stew

It’s your money.

[ErickAA]

Yikes. Brutal walk-off 3 there. Really disappointing ending for the Lakers. Lonzo had to leave with cramps and Ingram blew the game basically.

Actually didn’t watch any of it though I followed the scoreboard.

Something happened I don’t understand with Lakers

I’ve been running like god lately. Duke ML was nice. I can take a couple of losses

I got bigger fish to fry with Vandy Baylor


You’ve been running strong too.

Lonzo was very good is what happened with the Lakers. Maybe his best game ever. Hard to predict that would happen. But he had to miss crunch time with cramps and they blew the win (but still covered). Based on this game (and the rest of his career) I think it is pretty obvious Ingram cannot be your teams primary ball handler. He just doesn’t have the ball handling skills or the court vision. In fairness to him, he wouldn’t have been in that spot if the top 3 ball handlers weren’t all hurt.

[Sanlmar]

Simpdog what do you think?

Toronto/Columbus under 6.5 +107

If Sergei Bobrovsky is in goal for Columbus (after his white hot performance last week) isn’t this value? His year long numbers aren’t great as he had a slow start so some sneaky math value?

Oops, Druff doesn’t think recent performance is very important

Anyway, with Sergei Bobrovsky in net taking Toronto live with a deficit might be wrong wrong wrong. I think it is better to get out in front with this goal tender by going under pregame

Talk to me

Hockey and multiple goal tenders .... it’s interesting and stupid to read the touts talking about team gaa.

Toronto scary good on offense. I wanna ride the hot Columbus goalie despite that

If you don’t like it I can skip it. I can retire today after bagging this blow out/laffer perfectly content

ACCEPTED:
12/28/2018 2:36:24 AM
DESCRIPTION:
MOBILE - FOOTBALL - NCAA - 242 AUBURN/PURDUE OVER 55½ -110 FOR GAME

[Dan Druff]

I think I'm finally getting a better feel for this NBA season.

How can I say this, being 14-14-1?

The last 3 picks have gone this way:

Phoenix/Washington - under "won" by 8.5 at end of regulation, obviously lost in triple OT

Charlotte/Brooklyn - well ahead of pace to win under, until unusually high 4th quarter barely beat it in regulation, then went to triple OT anyway

Portland/Golden State - under "won" by 24.5 at end of regulation, went to OT, still won by 7.5

So despite being 1-2 in the last three picks, I should have actually been 2-1, and I could have easily been 3-0. I was also 6-3 in my past 9 prior to this.

Tonight's pick is all about LA.

Remember -- no Lebron, no Rondo!

Clippers at Lakers - Under 229

You can get under 230 -115 on Bovada right now.

Starts at 7:35pm PST

[Sanlmar]

I did it anyway Simp. Thx a lot.

MOBILE - TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS AT COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS TOTAL MATCH UNDER 6.5 W

Toronto is so strong.

I went to buy a Toronto future but BOL has none for hockey. Every other sport.


I did under 231 Lakers v Kings two nights ago - which is the same deal as tonight essentially. Kings & Clippers same style and pace. (in fact Kings/Clips held a track meet a few days ago too. Prolly 250 total) No Rondo LeBron. Ball played well. Lost decisively.

GL but you walk these streets alone Druff

[Salty_Aus]

I did it anyway Simp. Thx a lot.

MOBILE - TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS AT COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS TOTAL MATCH UNDER 6.5 W

Toronto is so strong.

I went to buy a Toronto future but BOL has none for hockey. Every other sport.


I did under 231 Lakers v Kings two nights ago - which is the same deal as tonight essentially. Kings & Clippers same style and pace. (in fact Kings/Clips held a track meet a few days ago too. Prolly 250 total) No Rondo LeBron. Ball played well. Lost decisively.

GL but you walk these streets alone Druff

Never followed Todd's tips and have only bet O/U maybe twice on a basketball game ever.

But I've been running like god lately and today I took under 230 @ even money... so guess he's not walking these streets alone today

[ErickAA]

So I am 100% going to bet Iowa St from the second the line comes out. It is at +2.5 forever, but I decide to sit on it to see if it will go to 3. Nope, it goes to 2 this afternoon, I take it at 2 and turn a guaranteed lock win into a push.

Lame.

[OSA]

I know nothing about college football but will be betting based on how cute the teams rosters are. Are there any front runners?

[Dan Druff]

Lakers under started off great... barely any scoring for first 7 minutes.

Was pretty much ready to count my money, and then they had a fast finish to the 1st quarter. Was still well on pace to win going into the 4th, but they put up 63 and made it close. Still won, as the total finished at 225.

Would be 8-4 in my last 12 if it weren't for that OT screw job earlier this week, so I'm 7-5 in last 12 instead.

15-14-1 right now. Looking to get 2 games over .500 for the first time this season.

[Daly]

Nevada
Florida
ND
Bama

[OSA]

Nevada
Florida
ND
Bama

Sorry Daly, but Michigan is gonna win. Why you may ask?

Jake Moody



Dylan McCaffrey



Ryan McCurry




Gators only really have this guy

Evan McPherson




So, Michigan will win and because how lopsided will probably cover too.

[ErickAA]

Nevada
Florida
ND
Bama

Sorry Daly, but Michigan is gonna win. Why you may ask?

Jake Moody



Dylan McCaffrey



Ryan McCurry




Gators only really have this guy

Evan McPherson




So, Michigan will win and because how lopsided will probably cover too.

Counterpoint:

This is one of Florida's stud RBs

[ErickAA]

-I made these bets awhile ago, so don't know how stale these lines are:

Florida +6
S Car +4
Ark St/Nevada O56

-I have nothing for the playoff games yet, but will probably take something eventually, for sweating purposes if nothing else.

[OSA]

Sorry Daly, but Michigan is gonna win. Why you may ask?

Jake Moody



Dylan McCaffrey



Ryan McCurry




Gators only really have this guy

Evan McPherson




So, Michigan will win and because how lopsided will probably cover too.

Counterpoint:

This is one of Florida's stud RBs

And that guy is different from any other RB how?

[OSA]

Also, Clemson has some of the best talent playing today. Really cute guys. Might have to take them too.

[ErickAA]

ND +11.5