Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #30521
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
    Reputation
    2671
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    10,306
    Load Metric
    65698560
    Shameless self Promoting aside - today is last call for alcohol on Stroud at some of the stale prices still kicking around. If you got a PPH that’s hanging 15-1 or better it will be gone tomorrow.

  2. #30522
    Gold
    Reputation
    308
    Join Date
    Sep 2020
    Posts
    1,741
    Load Metric
    65698560
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Shameless self Promoting aside - today is last call for alcohol on Stroud at some of the stale prices still kicking around. If you got a PPH that’s hanging 15-1 or better it will be gone tomorrow.
    My book is 12.5-1. But my book is brutal with these kind of props. I bet if you did the math they are holding 30%+ of the $$.

  3. #30523
    Platinum JeffDime's Avatar
    Reputation
    1473
    Join Date
    Apr 2020
    Location
    Brick City, USA
    Posts
    2,703
    Load Metric
    65698560
    To say I had bad timing jumping on Brooks would be a major understatement. First tee shot in the water. Somehow ten footer to save par. Nope. Another ten footer to save par next hole. Nope. Two more 10 footers for birdies. Nope. Nope. Total bedshit.

    Need Horsfield to save the week. Early tees got to fade the weather as well. Why bet golf?

    BTW Horsfield is +1100. Same odds at the beginning of the tournament.
    Last edited by JeffDime; 08-21-2021 at 10:17 AM.

  4. #30524
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
    Reputation
    2671
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    10,306
    Load Metric
    65698560
    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Shameless self Promoting aside - today is last call for alcohol on Stroud at some of the stale prices still kicking around. If you got a PPH that’s hanging 15-1 or better it will be gone tomorrow.
    My book is 12.5-1. But my book is brutal with these kind of props. I bet if you did the math they are holding 30%+ of the $$.
    Lot of other people did the math and figured out he was the odds on favorite to win the job and that he would have a likely 12-0 team and the two best WR in the game at his fingertips.

    Young, Rattler, DJ, JT, Ohio St QB, a basket of “other named others” (Bijon, Howell, King, Slovis) and “everyone unknown else” are the equal share favorites

    So pick one player/group and they all roughly +700 - that’s the way I’ve thought about it since June.

    The fact that you can now put in ink CJ Stroud at the Ohio St QB means he’s one of the options at about +700.

    The hold on these is huge for the book in aggregate. Too many fans of the 130 teams who want to shoot off $100 and every few years you get a out of the blue winner like Smith. But if you paying attention it’s possible to bag a whale (See Joe Borrow).

    We got our money in good - now the kid has to perform.

     
    Comments
      
      Tellafriend: Money in good rep

  5. #30525
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
    Reputation
    2671
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    10,306
    Load Metric
    65698560
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    I have to say if they played the upcoming season 16 times Chase young would win DPOY more than once.

    There is value in that +1600 line. How much is up for debate

    As happy as I am with the CJ news, anyone do a price check on this bet recently?

  6. #30526
    Platinum JeffDime's Avatar
    Reputation
    1473
    Join Date
    Apr 2020
    Location
    Brick City, USA
    Posts
    2,703
    Load Metric
    65698560
    What a disaster on the 11th hole with a wedge in hand. Golf is a really humbling sport to bet. May take the week off. This has been a real tough week. We’ll be down $600 after the first month of doing this (unless Brooks shoots 10 under today). All and all ok but this week really hurts. Felt really good about Horsfield and he really put himself behind the 8 ball with the poor second round.

    He still had a good bit of chasing to do so the triple bogey probably just allowed me to get some sleep a little earlier at least. Triple with a wedge in hand from the fairway on the second easiest par 4. FFS. Of course the commentators said that expected him to go low on the back nine. Should of just shut it off then.
    Last edited by JeffDime; 08-22-2021 at 02:09 AM.

  7. #30527
    Silver Sandwich's Avatar
    Reputation
    66
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    974
    Load Metric
    65698560
    Keeping myself accountable....
    Quote Originally Posted by Sandwich View Post
    Palatnikov +120 L
    Bahamondes +125 W
    Cherant +150 L
    Nunes +130 W
    Royval +150 L


    Kelleher -175 W
    Saldana -125 L
    Pichel -110 W
    Cannonier -140 W
    profit 0.74 units

  8. #30528
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
    Reputation
    4291
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    21,090
    Load Metric
    65698560
    The “David Price is awful” under strikeout autobet may not make it to the end of the regular season. It has been 4-0 here.

    Today my shitty book has under 3.5 +123. The books aren’t idiots, I guess. Price has “never” gone over 4 strikeouts in a start this year and will never either. He has gone 5 innings once. If you have an out with under 4 strikeouts or more push the button and think of me

    Mets are wretched last 30 days so there is that. However, they are professionals when at bat and Price has no put away pitch.

    Dodgers have been feeding me on the regular so I can’t hate too much but weirdo Price completes me.

    I’m gonna chill till Monday for the most part.

    Indians are just a numbers/value play
    Cleveland Indians -120 for 1st 5 Innings

    The conspiracy theorist in me wants to hit the over 9. There is no justification except the fraud show that was the Field of Dreams game. I hate myself for not spotting that over. They served it up on a plate for me and I waved them off.

    It’s another Sunday Night Baseball game at a venue like that. It’s at Williamsport which is the home of the Little League World Series. Nobody wants to see a pitchers duel. Baseballs will be chosen with special care for the night.
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 08-22-2021 at 10:45 AM.

  9. #30529
    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
    Reputation
    410
    Join Date
    Aug 2015
    Location
    Jerry Got Game
    Posts
    4,744
    Load Metric
    65698560
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    The “David Price is awful” under strikeout autobet may not make it to the end of the regular season. It has been 4-0 here.

    Today my shitty book has under 3.5 +123. The books aren’t idiots, I guess. Price has “never” gone over 4 strikeouts in a start this year and will never either. He has gone 5 innings once. If you have an out with under 4 strikeouts or more push the button and think of me

    Mets are wretched last 30 days so there is that. However, they are professionals when at bat and Price has no put away pitch.

    Dodgers have been feeding me on the regular so I can’t hate too much but weirdo Price completes me.

    I’m gonna chill till Monday for the most part.

    Indians are just a numbers/value play
    Cleveland Indians -120 for 1st 5 Innings


    The conspiracy theorist in me wants to hit the over 9. There is no justification except the fraud show that was the Field of Dreams game. I hate myself for not spotting that over. They served it up on a plate for me and I waved them off.

    It’s another Sunday Night Baseball game at a venue like that. It’s at Williamsport which is the home of the Little League World Series. Nobody wants to see a pitchers duel. Baseballs will be chosen with special care for the night.
    I am taking your advice on the Indians 5 innings. I am putting a number that would make you shy. Like $1,000. I am looking to catch up from a disaster weekend. If I do not hit this, I truly hope you get the Delta and I am completely serious. Let's hope we both win.

  10. #30530
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
    Reputation
    4291
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    21,090
    Load Metric
    65698560
    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    The “David Price is awful” under strikeout autobet may not make it to the end of the regular season. It has been 4-0 here.

    Today my shitty book has under 3.5 +123. The books aren’t idiots, I guess. Price has “never” gone over 4 strikeouts in a start this year and will never either. He has gone 5 innings once. If you have an out with under 4 strikeouts or more push the button and think of me

    Mets are wretched last 30 days so there is that. However, they are professionals when at bat and Price has no put away pitch.

    Dodgers have been feeding me on the regular so I can’t hate too much but weirdo Price completes me.

    I’m gonna chill till Monday for the most part.

    Indians are just a numbers/value play
    Cleveland Indians -120 for 1st 5 Innings


    The conspiracy theorist in me wants to hit the over 9. There is no justification except the fraud show that was the Field of Dreams game. I hate myself for not spotting that over. They served it up on a plate for me and I waved them off.

    It’s another Sunday Night Baseball game at a venue like that. It’s at Williamsport which is the home of the Little League World Series. Nobody wants to see a pitchers duel. Baseballs will be chosen with special care for the night.
    I am taking your advice on the Indians 5 innings. I am putting a number that would make you shy. Like $1,000. I am looking to catch up from a disaster weekend. If I do not hit this, I truly hope you get the Delta and I am completely serious. Let's hope we both win.
    It was just a value play without any of my usual hate or conviction. The game is a bum fight.

    I might as well get the Ro Ro now.

    Good luck to us.

    Tuesday looks delectable.

  11. #30531
    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
    Reputation
    410
    Join Date
    Aug 2015
    Location
    Jerry Got Game
    Posts
    4,744
    Load Metric
    65698560
    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    The “David Price is awful” under strikeout autobet may not make it to the end of the regular season. It has been 4-0 here.

    Today my shitty book has under 3.5 +123. The books aren’t idiots, I guess. Price has “never” gone over 4 strikeouts in a start this year and will never either. He has gone 5 innings once. If you have an out with under 4 strikeouts or more push the button and think of me

    Mets are wretched last 30 days so there is that. However, they are professionals when at bat and Price has no put away pitch.

    Dodgers have been feeding me on the regular so I can’t hate too much but weirdo Price completes me.

    I’m gonna chill till Monday for the most part.

    Indians are just a numbers/value play
    Cleveland Indians -120 for 1st 5 Innings


    The conspiracy theorist in me wants to hit the over 9. There is no justification except the fraud show that was the Field of Dreams game. I hate myself for not spotting that over. They served it up on a plate for me and I waved them off.

    It’s another Sunday Night Baseball game at a venue like that. It’s at Williamsport which is the home of the Little League World Series. Nobody wants to see a pitchers duel. Baseballs will be chosen with special care for the night.
    I am taking your advice on the Indians 5 innings. I am putting a number that would make you shy. Like $1,000. I am looking to catch up from a disaster weekend. If I do not hit this, I truly hope you get the Delta and I am completely serious. Let's hope we both win.
    I've always believed in your picks, great seeing you making things happen! College football is soon, anxiously awaiting your picks. Thanks Bro for this $1,000 gift!

     
    Comments
      
      Sanlmar: Thx. Sense of smell and taste are returning now

  12. #30532
    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
    Reputation
    410
    Join Date
    Aug 2015
    Location
    Jerry Got Game
    Posts
    4,744
    Load Metric
    65698560
    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post

    I am taking your advice on the Indians 5 innings. I am putting a number that would make you shy. Like $1,000. I am looking to catch up from a disaster weekend. If I do not hit this, I truly hope you get the Delta and I am completely serious. Let's hope we both win.
    I've always believed in your picks, great seeing you making things happen! College football is soon, anxiously awaiting your picks. Thanks Bro for this $1,000 gift!
    Sir,

    I am looking for another quick grand, can you lend your expertise to a tonight pick? Thank you in advance, Sir.

    Tgull

  13. #30533
    Welcher jsearles22's Avatar
    Reputation
    561
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    6,690
    Load Metric
    65698560
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    I could absolutely see Tony Finau winning this.

    Course is Taylor made for his game. Only thing is he’s just like Oost except instead of always finishing second he always finishes sixth.
    Tap in 3 footer for eagle on 12 to tie the lead. Everyone gonna be chasing Tony
    It's hilarious that we as a society think everyone can be a dr, a lawyer, an engineer. Some people are just fucking stupid. Why can't we just accept that?

  14. #30534
    Platinum
    Reputation
    631
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Posts
    4,892
    Load Metric
    65698560
    Don’t think this deserves another thread so I’ll put it here…

    Just tuned in to the Jags/Saints game and saw they renamed the Superdome the Caesars Superdome..:

    I never in a million years thought I’d say this but brilliant move by the evil empire there…the new corporate overlords must have some money to spend…

  15. #30535
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
    Reputation
    2671
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    10,306
    Load Metric
    65698560
    Quote Originally Posted by jsearles22 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    I could absolutely see Tony Finau winning this.

    Course is Taylor made for his game. Only thing is he’s just like Oost except instead of always finishing second he always finishes sixth.
    Tap in 3 footer for eagle on 12 to tie the lead. Everyone gonna be chasing Tony
    I “bet him for the max” on day one. Max being 1/10th of what I had on Rory. Nice way to backdoor a small win on the weekend.

    I will always respect and root for Finau. 3ish years ago I faded the shit out of him at the masters when he rolled his ankle over and posted pictures on Twitter. His entire lower leg was purple. He went on to stick it in my ass and finished about 10th place (like he almost always does). I said I’d never bet against him again.

  16. #30536
    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
    Reputation
    410
    Join Date
    Aug 2015
    Location
    Jerry Got Game
    Posts
    4,744
    Load Metric
    65698560
    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post

    I've always believed in your picks, great seeing you making things happen! College football is soon, anxiously awaiting your picks. Thanks Bro for this $1,000 gift!
    Sir,

    I am looking for another quick grand, can you lend your expertise to a tonight pick? Thank you in advance, Sir.

    Tgull
    I was able to sneak in a Yankees under for $1,000 4.5 in 5 innings last night. Easy money. hehehe. Hope everyone is ballin' like me.

     
    Comments
      
      Walter Sobchak: You had a “disaster weekend” now you’re ballin
      
      Sanlmar: Thread is on a ventilator. Let him breath

  17. #30537
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
    Reputation
    4291
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    21,090
    Load Metric
    65698560
    Something quick

    Dodgers just announced Urias vs Padres opener Pierce (Brosnan) Johnson. Market hasn’t reacted.

    Dodgers series -140 vs free falling Padres

    Padres just fired pitching coach today. Interesting on a bullpen day

    Tomorrow Buehler V Snell

    Scherzer v unknown

    Unknown v Unknown.

    Urias, Buehler & Scherzer …. Scherzer wasn’t sharp last time out, I must admit. Not saying he was bad at all. Just not Scherzer-like. Nimrod Dave Roberts allows Scherzer to pitch too long cause he’s afraid of him on game day. Scherzer might be a little tired. Hopefully not dead arm.

    Padres have owned the Dodgers previously but that’s history talking. Sharps with numbers need to adjust. Bet now or pay more later.

    I’m late today with my homework

    Arizona Diamondbacks -130 for 1st 5 Innings L
    AZ Bumgarner v Pitt Brubaker

    I just don’t understand this except that Diamondbacks have an infamously bad road record 15-48. So AZ would be a auto fade for most for good reason. Bumgarner is an anomaly. They still have a trash bullpen but for 5 innings I gotta make a bet. It’s a bum fight for sure so hold your nose.
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 08-24-2021 at 04:34 PM.

  18. #30538
    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
    Reputation
    410
    Join Date
    Aug 2015
    Location
    Jerry Got Game
    Posts
    4,744
    Load Metric
    65698560
    I generally stay away from overs in baseball, it's served me well. BUT tonight I am taking the over on the Angels - Baltimore game. Both these pitchers are beyond awful. Line is 10, which is high but FFS this could be 8-7 by the 5th inning. These pitchers are that awful. Laying 4 bills. I hate overs in baseball, but whatever taking a risk.

  19. #30539
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
    Reputation
    2671
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    10,306
    Load Metric
    65698560
    I won’t try to explain my process when it comes to picking golf, but I’ll talk it out one time.

    I like X and JT. At open they were priced ~ 20-1 and right in the thick of that “second choice layer” with Colin, DJ, Speith and I’m happy to say Cameron Smith. To pick any two of these guys isn’t really going out of a limb but I do like the form of these two guys. I made some bets on these two.

    Figured I was done

    Sometimes you just need to pay attention to what’s going on around you and then you can start connecting the dots and fall into what may be a good punt based on people smarter than you. I’m not a Bryson guy. I do like money however. He opened in the +2500 range. On b00kmaker, the sharpest of the books IMHO he has been hammered down to the clear second choice at +1400. He’s still at many locals in the mid 20’s.

    We are looking at a wide open fairly long course measuring ~7550 yards, par 72 with 4 par 5’s. Long, wide open, 4 par 5’s. That’s Bryson alright.

    I went back and added another bullet where I could find him in the mid 20’s. The fellas might be onto something here.

     
    Comments
      
      JeffDime: This. Been between X & JT all day. Leaning X b/c of Par 5 scoring & winning Gold.

  20. #30540
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
    Reputation
    4291
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    21,090
    Load Metric
    65698560
    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    I generally stay away from overs in baseball, it's served me well. BUT tonight I am taking the over on the Angels - Baltimore game. Both these pitchers are beyond awful. Line is 10, which is high but FFS this could be 8-7 by the 5th inning. These pitchers are that awful. Laying 4 bills. I hate overs in baseball, but whatever taking a risk.
    Wish I saw this. It. I gut have inspired me to think about it.

    Zero stress. Beautiful

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 7 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 7 guests)

Similar Threads

  1. Offers of thought on this one needed.
    By son of lockman in forum Flying Stupidity
    Replies: 17
    Last Post: 09-20-2013, 03:54 PM
  2. Sportsbook suggestions
    By Walter Sobchak in forum Flying Stupidity
    Replies: 4
    Last Post: 02-02-2013, 10:04 AM
  3. negotiating compensation from job offers
    By mulva in forum Flying Stupidity
    Replies: 5
    Last Post: 11-12-2012, 08:17 PM
  4. Best Sportsbook on the strip ?
    By FrenchJew in forum Poker Community Discussion
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 06-09-2012, 10:50 AM
  5. Vwls-Props for doing radio and making it interesting!
    By Pokehermaniac in forum Flying Stupidity
    Replies: 9
    Last Post: 06-01-2012, 07:36 PM

Tags for this Thread