Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #31541
    Gold
    Reputation
    362
    Join Date
    Feb 2021
    Posts
    2,335
    Load Metric
    65675566
    Quote Originally Posted by shoeshine box View Post
    BEST Straight Bet Sunday:

    NE Patriots 11/14/2021 (10:00 AM)
    Money Line -135 for the Game
    Really nice bet, I didn’t know what side to take in this one but bet the over 45. Patriots offense is now high scoring. Mac Jones has massive potential, extremely impressive rookie year. No idea why San Francisco didn’t draft him, not sure why so many teams didn’t seem impressed by him last year at Alabama, I was, Mac Jones is a stud, New England is back in a big way! Contenders in AFC in my opinion

    Falcons what a complete dud! Made 4 bets in early games I’m looking at a break even start so let’s bet some late games.

    Green Bay -3
    Raiders +2.5

     
    Comments
      
      shoeshine box: KC/SF ML was sweet also

  2. #31542
    Rest In Peace
    Reputation
    142
    Join Date
    Jun 2015
    Posts
    930
    Load Metric
    65675566
    Quote Originally Posted by NickyPipes View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by shoeshine box View Post
    BEST Straight Bet Sunday:

    NE Patriots 11/14/2021 (10:00 AM)
    Money Line -135 for the Game
    Really nice bet, I didn’t know what side to take in this one but bet the over 45. Patriots offense is now high scoring. Mac Jones has massive potential, extremely impressive rookie year. No idea why San Francisco didn’t draft him, not sure why so many teams didn’t seem impressed by him last year at Alabama, I was, Mac Jones is a stud, New England is back in a big way! Contenders in AFC in my opinion

    Falcons what a complete dud! Made 4 bets in early games I’m looking at a break even start so let’s bet some late games.

    Green Bay -3
    Raiders +2.5

    I had Vicey versa last 2. seattle/kc.... worst week I had in 5 yrs....

    Mostly. oklahomos/Indiana/Saints/Falcs/Seattle.......mfers.

     
    Comments
      
      NickyPipes: I lost last weekend. I bet like 10 games this weekend and broke even

  3. #31543
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
    Reputation
    10110
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    54,627
    Blog Entries
    2
    Load Metric
    65675566
    OKC isn't as bad as you think. They won 4 in a row, beating the Lakers, Spurs, Pelicans, and Kings, before finally getting blown out by the Nets last time.

    Miami is missing 3 key players.

    OKC +220 vs. Miami

    MIA: Adebayo/Butler/Odapiyo/Morris OUT
    OKC: Bazley/Favors/Muscala OUT

     
    Comments
      
      NickyPipes: How do you know how bad I think OKC Is?

  4. #31544
    Gold
    Reputation
    362
    Join Date
    Feb 2021
    Posts
    2,335
    Load Metric
    65675566
    Brothers I bet on UNDER 50

  5. #31545
    Gold
    Reputation
    362
    Join Date
    Feb 2021
    Posts
    2,335
    Load Metric
    65675566
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    OKC isn't as bad as you think. They won 4 in a row, beating the Lakers, Spurs, Pelicans, and Kings, before finally getting blown out by the Nets last time.

    Miami is missing 3 key players.

    OKC +220 vs. Miami

    MIA: Adebayo/Butler/Odapiyo/Morris OUT
    OKC: Bazley/Favors/Muscala OUT
    Brother why not take the 9 points? I don’t really watch or bet NBA but was tempted to take OKC +9, I didn’t bet it though.

  6. #31546
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
    Reputation
    10110
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    54,627
    Blog Entries
    2
    Load Metric
    65675566
    It was 6 points, not 9. 9 was earlier today, but sadly I wasn't available to get it. The moneyline was obviously better, as well.

    I did get a bit of good news for this game, as Bazley ended up playing. Well, maybe not good news, as he's 0/4 with 0 points so far.

    Right now very close game, as it has been most of the way.

    Too bad I didn't do the under, as the first half had like 84 points.

  7. #31547
    Gold
    Reputation
    308
    Join Date
    Sep 2020
    Posts
    1,741
    Load Metric
    65675566
    Damn Druff. You are just going to go out on your shield trying to guess when these shitty teams are going to show up. I admire the tenacity.

    GL.

  8. #31548
    Gold
    Reputation
    308
    Join Date
    Sep 2020
    Posts
    1,741
    Load Metric
    65675566
    Lakers +1. Hard to imagine the Bulls are going to show up 2 nights in a row in LA. I figure they are satisfied with the Clipper win and all stayed out late getting tail, and just aren't going to have it today.

  9. #31549
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
    Reputation
    10110
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    54,627
    Blog Entries
    2
    Load Metric
    65675566
    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post
    Damn Druff. You are just going to go out on your shield trying to guess when these shitty teams are going to show up. I admire the tenacity.

    GL.
    Yeah I forgot how I said I might bet 1H for these teams instead of the game, since the collapse tends to come in 3Q, and rarely do they have a big comeback after a bad first hafl -- at least not winning outright.

    Here that would've tied moneyline and won spread. I was hoping a (surprisingly good recently) OKC would beat a Miami team with 3 major players out, but I guess not. 10 points down in the 4th.


  10. #31550
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
    Reputation
    10110
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    54,627
    Blog Entries
    2
    Load Metric
    65675566
    But yeah 100% the biggest msitake I've made so far this NBA season has been betting on bad teams (both spread and moneyline). My unders have just not performed well, but betting them wasn't a fundamental mistake.

  11. #31551
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
    Reputation
    10110
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    54,627
    Blog Entries
    2
    Load Metric
    65675566
    Well, at least I probably don't have to feel bad for going ML instead of +6.

    Seriously though, next bad team I bet is going to be 1H only, whether spread or ML. Absolute meltdown right now in 4th.

  12. #31552
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
    Reputation
    4291
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    21,090
    Load Metric
    65675566
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Well, at least I probably don't have to feel bad for going ML instead of +6.

    Seriously though, next bad team I bet is going to be 1H only, whether spread or ML. Absolute meltdown right now in 4th.

    The next bad team you bet

    Ever wonder if you make things more difficult than necessary?

    favorites won straight up in all 11 games and covered 10 of them.
    The lone cover for underdogs was a one-point ATS victory from Minnesota (+4) in a 99-96 loss. Two failed free throws at the end.

    Auto fading the Lakers had to be straight cash homie. Every night is a train wreck. Keep it simple.

    Having said that ….. I am putting in a small bet on the Nets vs Warriors just for entertainment as this is some kind of Super Bowl. I might even watch the end. I’ll hate myself, I’m sure

    Brooklyn Nets -3 -110


    You don’t want to know the 37-9 record (relying on memory) for NHL teams ML > -200. NHL is god. Sorta brainless wagering truthfully.
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 11-16-2021 at 11:49 AM.

  13. #31553
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
    Reputation
    4291
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    21,090
    Load Metric
    65675566
    You could not post this on nearly any other forum without repercussions cause EVERYONE is taking money from sportsbooks now. I mean everyone. It is fun trying to figure out the different “forum” sites and their revenue models.

    The following piece is extraordinary. Not only is it important for those who still wager NFL but the analysis provided me with important reminders and observations about refereeing (variance) in the other sports.

    The NFL Has a Gambling Problem
    https://www.epsilontheory.com/the-nf...ElJZLo.twitter


    The conclusions drawn from the arguments at the end is, of course, the money shot. Don’t cheat yourself out of the foreplay though. Don’t be a lazy gambler or lover.

    Btw those Caesars ads are fucking great.
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 11-16-2021 at 11:50 AM.

  14. #31554
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
    Reputation
    4291
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    21,090
    Load Metric
    65675566
    Absent any sports wagering content here I confess I have been walking the wilderness.

    I learned what I knew early on from PFA. I wanted to stay away from the touts and the shills. I wanted to figure wagering out on my own. Daly was influential and he did point me to one or two guys who were critical. I learned from everyone though. Badguy - seriously. It was very important to me to remain pure. I posted a lot here cause it was the only place I would discuss wagering. That was a conscious decision.


    Anyway, back to the wilderness walk. I am utterly shocked by the level of stupidity and noobs. I see people betting 5 team parlays daily and using the sportsbooks bet boosters. The eagerness and thirst for any kind of pick and the willingness to blindly tail is unbelievable. It’s fucking crazy out there.

    The ability of really marginal sport talk radio level talent to spin up affiliations and deals with wagering sites is incredible. Of course, the Barstool guy from Boston is the epitome of the genre. Really useless shit but everyone is raking with these useless opinions. It’s like a gold rush. It’s like poker used to be like with sponsorships but the money is massively larger.

    I think this legalized wagering thing just might work out. I want nothing to do with it, of course. I don’t do scratch tickets either. MGM and -137 teasers. Nice.

     
    Comments
      
      JeffDime: Great Post
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 11-16-2021 at 12:26 PM.

  15. #31555
    Platinum JeffDime's Avatar
    Reputation
    1473
    Join Date
    Apr 2020
    Location
    Brick City, USA
    Posts
    2,703
    Load Metric
    65675566
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Absent any sports wagering content here I confess I have been walking the wilderness.

    I learned what I knew early on from PFA. I wanted to stay away from the touts and the shills. I wanted to figure wagering out on my own. Daly was influential and he did point me to one or two guys who were critical. I learned from everyone though. Badguy - seriously. It was very important to me to remain pure. I posted a lot here cause it was the only place I would discuss wagering. That was a conscious decision.


    Anyway, back to the wilderness walk. I am utterly shocked by the level of stupidity and noobs. I see people betting 5 team parlays daily and using the sportsbooks bet boosters. The eagerness and thirst for any kind of pick and the willingness to blindly tail is unbelievable. It’s fucking crazy out there.

    The ability of really marginal sport talk radio level talent to spin up affiliations and deals with wagering sites is incredible. Of course, the Barstool guy from Boston is the epitome of the genre. Really useless shit but everyone is raking with these useless opinions. It’s like a gold rush. It’s like poker used to be like with sponsorships but the money is massively larger.

    I think this legalized wagering thing just might work out. I want nothing to do with it, of course. I don’t do scratch tickets either. MGM and -137 teasers. Nice.

    Well said San. Guess we will have betting kiosks in the magic kingdom soon. Can’t imagine the juice they’ll charge when a soda is 8 bucks.

    https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/bu...rs-1235048867/

    BTW I am going to Vegas ironically to largely take a break from Gambling. Just goes more to show how absurd the whole thing has become.

    Last week lost 5K. Kind of says it all. Sitting at 66.5K (+16.5K) since been tracking the bankroll a little over 3 months.

     
    Comments
      
      shoeshine box: tailed every play but 1! hahahah. good luck. have fun
      
      Sanlmar: Good article - appreciate you
      
      JoeD: GL GL. This thread beats Poker and COVID drama 10 out of 10 times. Gamble of the week is Brook Henderson at +2000

  16. #31556
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
    Reputation
    4291
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    21,090
    Load Metric
    65675566
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Mac Jones Patriots ROY was a bold call of his. Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields etc but Daly knew the importance of Belichick. I think Daly got a better number. Great call. Ja'Marr Chase is a problem but if Patriots keep winning this will work itself out.

    Name:  
Views: 
Size:
    .
    Circa has Mac Jones -115 to win the OROY over Ja'Marr Chase at +165. We are all set now.

    How long do I have to wait for my Ohtani money? Really kinda annoyed Juan Soto didn’t cash.

    I’m really not a futures guy but things are working out this past year.

  17. #31557
    Rest In Peace
    Reputation
    142
    Join Date
    Jun 2015
    Posts
    930
    Load Metric
    65675566

    over 57 Cent mich/ball st.

    n Illinois -1 -120

     
    Comments
      
      JeffDime: I’ll PM you when I know for sure details of my trip.

  18. #31558
    Platinum JeffDime's Avatar
    Reputation
    1473
    Join Date
    Apr 2020
    Location
    Brick City, USA
    Posts
    2,703
    Load Metric
    65675566
    Portnoy can be exhausting but he does lay things out other people tip toe around. 20:20 he talks about Barstool’s Bid being rejected in New York. How the tax will be 51% in NY as opposed to approx 15% in NJ.



    Another thing I’ve heard regarding the Hard Rock App in Florida is that it is been live for a few weeks. The NBA/NFL lines are all standard and 10 cents juice. But they have a monopoly and time will tell. Typically the Apps really fuck you when it comes to the money lines sports (Baseball/Hockey/Soccer etc) where they can really squeeze the breakage.

    Bet MGM has been the worst offender as far as the big names that I have seen. 25 cents of breakage minimum has been the standard there. Full 15 cents from ten cents lines. It’s easier to do this with little pushback. If NFL bettors were routinely laying more than 10 cents on standard spread bets than there might be some actual audible groans from the public.

    You should see some of these $1000 parlays I see put in at the Borgata window. Just total donations. Guys adding games like they are ordering fast food. The amount of sales personal Bet MGM has in the sportsbook is ridiculous.

    Here’s a current look…

    Name:  CE3C5784-56C3-4112-A0E6-DACA24747275.png
Views: 169
Size:  683.2 KB
    Last edited by JeffDime; 11-17-2021 at 12:44 PM.

  19. #31559
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
    Reputation
    1959
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Posts
    10,556
    Load Metric
    65675566
    Hawks +130. Hawks playing better....Seattle on a 4 game losing streak.
    Avs/Canucks over 6 -105.

    Gl to all.

     
    Comments
      
      Sanlmar: Thx

  20. #31560
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
    Reputation
    1959
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Posts
    10,556
    Load Metric
    65675566
    Add Baker Mayfield to the head case list and fade the Browns?

    Baker Mayfield was emotional when asked about Julius Jones, who is facing execution on Thursday in Oklahoma after 19 years on death row. Mayfield hopes @GovStitt and God can intervene.

    Hard to back the Lions, but maybe +10 if Baker's head isn't into the game? (Maybe why the Browns shit the bed last weekend?)

     
    Comments
      
      Sanlmar: Power read the article I posted above

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 12 users browsing this thread. (4 members and 8 guests)

  1. Dan Druff,
  2. DrPeters,
  3. Pablo,
  4. Rayo88

Similar Threads

  1. Offers of thought on this one needed.
    By son of lockman in forum Flying Stupidity
    Replies: 17
    Last Post: 09-20-2013, 03:54 PM
  2. Sportsbook suggestions
    By Walter Sobchak in forum Flying Stupidity
    Replies: 4
    Last Post: 02-02-2013, 10:04 AM
  3. negotiating compensation from job offers
    By mulva in forum Flying Stupidity
    Replies: 5
    Last Post: 11-12-2012, 08:17 PM
  4. Best Sportsbook on the strip ?
    By FrenchJew in forum Poker Community Discussion
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 06-09-2012, 10:50 AM
  5. Vwls-Props for doing radio and making it interesting!
    By Pokehermaniac in forum Flying Stupidity
    Replies: 9
    Last Post: 06-01-2012, 07:36 PM

Tags for this Thread