Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

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  2. #23182
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    I know san has the fucking DTs and lord only knows what the hell is going on with simp but think he might be ok since he has seemed to come to jesus with stock market gambooooooooling...

    anyway found this interesting...



    premise...lay the over 2.5 goals (buy the under 2.5 goals) on matches where the price is substantially in favor of over 2.5 goals for the game and then sell out as you get the time decay and look to be flat the position by 20' into the game...basically looking to lock in 20-30% profit on initial stake...

    I am going to attempt to do a small sample test on this with tomorrow and Thursday's games if I remember to fire up my live betting...not really worried about shit going right because we are expecting it to, more trying to see what happens when shit goes wrong and you get that early goal and you have to bail outta the position...also trying to see how big the decay of the over is in the higher priced over games (inter-Brescia and man city-Liverpool) if there isn't a goal scored quickly...

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      simpdog: gambling content

  3. #23183
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    GA is absolutely empty these days. I don't even show up any more.

    Really hope the major leagues start up. Could find some edges, maybe more upsets due to shorter seasons/lack of preparation?

    Stock market is going okay for me still off all time highs but chugging along.

    Like the content here, will keep an eye on it.

  4. #23184
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    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    GA is absolutely empty these days. I don't even show up any more.

    Really hope the major leagues start up. Could find some edges, maybe more upsets due to shorter seasons/lack of preparation?

    Stock market is going okay for me still off all time highs but chugging along.

    Like the content here, will keep an eye on it.
    im sure it's gonna be a shitshow...there will be money to be made...

  5. #23185
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    first game in the books...

    not overly impressed with the pricing that im seeing...the betfair markets that this guy was trading in seemed night and day as far as how dynamic they were compared to my DK live betting...my prices probably moved one time per 5 minutes...was expecting it to be a little more than that...but game 1 is profitable...will do the example calc for it after I finish collecting the data for the other games...

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  6. #23186
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    next two in the books...

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    interesting two games...bologna-Cagliari went exactly how we would want it to go...notice how that price really starts to accelerate in our favor between 15' and 20'...

    the inter-Brescia game is very interesting...Ashley young scored at around 4:30 so just as we would have started to take off a little...but notice the price change between 5', 10', and 15'...you get a fucking MASSIVE spike in the over from -250 to -770 at minute 5 and then the bottom just falls out at minute 10 to -530 and then again at minute 15 to -455...they scored a PK at right around the 20 minute mark so that's pretty much all she wrote, but very interesting to see that price action when a goal is scored very early on...

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  7. #23187
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    got the data from today's games...scratching my head a little...but will post when I get the chance to do a writeup...

    this might work really well in the betting markets like betfair has in europe, but in the live betting markets it seems to be a bit of a dud...

  8. #23188
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    NBA Silver talking about a broadcast delay because no crowd noise and swearing gonna be loud and clear.

    There goes in-game wagering if it comes to pass.

    Silver, more than any commissioner, understands how how bread is buttered so will be interesting to see how this develops. In-game is the ONLY reason anyone would watch NBA

    Dollars are still locked up tight

  9. #23189
    PFA Emeritus Crowe Diddly's Avatar
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    Everyone wants to hear the players shit talk live, but 98% of people are not prepared for what that shit talk would really be.

    It would honestly make this place look like a chapel. It's not a thing you can just bleep as it comes, it's a torrent of sexual preference jokes in a deep sauce of n-words, on its best day.

     
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      Sanlmar: lol

  10. #23190
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Anyone see value live Rocket Mortgage golf?

    Hubbard +2800?



    Edit
    Webb Simpson +180 v Ricky Fowler

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    Need some Blue Jays futures $
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 07-03-2020 at 10:18 AM.

  11. #23191
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Ricky Fowler recovering from terrible blisters from too much practice.

    Simpson lips out a 5’ putt to give Sanlmar a loss. Lol, WTF. Got it in good

  12. #23192
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Fowler falling apart

    Same shit Simpson +290 @ hole 8 vs Fowler

    Loss

    Can you give me a ride to GA Monday, Simp?
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 07-03-2020 at 11:04 AM.

  13. #23193
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  14. #23194
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    Mls soccer

    NE
    Montreal

    Over 1.5 live bet +100 at half.

  15. #23195
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    Mls soccer

    NE
    Montreal

    Over 1.5 live bet +100 at half.

  16. #23196
    Diamond Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tellafriend View Post
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    Pound the under. Aside from the Patriots, it's very tough to win even 2 SBs in a decade in the era of parity. Of the teams that did it, none of them had the highest paid QB in the league the year they won because you need money to pay a supporting cast.

    Mahomes is fantastic but a big part of what he does is create with his feet and as we've seen time and again, those guys get hit and they do not hold up as well as classic pocket passer types. Mahomes was hobbled by his ankle already last year.

    If Mahomes plays out that whole contract without restructuring or renegotiating and is actually paid the full headline-grabbing number I'll give you $503M.

    Finally, let's not forget, let's NOT forget Dude, they are coached by Andy Reid.
    Last edited by Walter Sobchak; 07-10-2020 at 12:35 AM.

    SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798

    PRESIDENT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., THE GREAT AND POWERFUL

  17. #23197
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    https://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/i...h-fixing-alert

    Sorry San going to have to rely on WYNN puts to get your fix.

  18. #23198
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    Quote Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Tellafriend View Post
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    Pound the under. Aside from the Patriots, it's very tough to win even 2 SBs in a decade in the era of parity. Of the teams that did it, none of them had the highest paid QB in the league the year they won because you need money to pay a supporting cast.

    Mahomes is fantastic but a big part of what he does is create with his feet and as we've seen time and again, those guys get hit and they do not hold up as well as classic pocket passer types. Mahomes was hobbled by his ankle already last year.

    If Mahomes plays out that whole contract without restructuring or renegotiating and is actually paid the full headline-grabbing number I'll give you $503M.

    Finally, let's not forget, let's NOT forget Dude, they are coached by Andy Reid.
    Obviously a publicity gimmick; only a fool would lock up their money for 12 years for such a bet.

  19. #23199
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Tellafriend View Post
    Name:  9D7806B2-96CF-48F1-A9A5-139BC663D7F6.jpeg
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    Pound the under. Aside from the Patriots, it's very tough to win even 2 SBs in a decade in the era of parity. Of the teams that did it, none of them had the highest paid QB in the league the year they won because you need money to pay a supporting cast.

    Mahomes is fantastic but a big part of what he does is create with his feet and as we've seen time and again, those guys get hit and they do not hold up as well as classic pocket passer types. Mahomes was hobbled by his ankle already last year.

    If Mahomes plays out that whole contract without restructuring or renegotiating and is actually paid the full headline-grabbing number I'll give you $503M.

    Finally, let's not forget, let's NOT forget Dude, they are coached by Andy Reid.

    Oooof.

    Absolutely positively do NOT pound the under.

  20. #23200
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak View Post

    Pound the under. Aside from the Patriots, it's very tough to win even 2 SBs in a decade in the era of parity. Of the teams that did it, none of them had the highest paid QB in the league the year they won because you need money to pay a supporting cast.

    Mahomes is fantastic but a big part of what he does is create with his feet and as we've seen time and again, those guys get hit and they do not hold up as well as classic pocket passer types. Mahomes was hobbled by his ankle already last year.

    If Mahomes plays out that whole contract without restructuring or renegotiating and is actually paid the full headline-grabbing number I'll give you $503M.

    Finally, let's not forget, let's NOT forget Dude, they are coached by Andy Reid.

    Oooof.

    Absolutely positively do NOT pound the under.
    Maybe if they gave you 5% interest on the money.

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