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Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #33321
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Other than the absence of Justin Turner, this is a pretty strong lineup for this time of year.

    https://twitter.com/#!/x/status/1571985035309490177

  2. #33322
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Well, this is a surprise. Burnes gave up a 3-run shot to Alonso, and dead arm Scherzer (who had the same ailment in the late 2021 season) is somehow throwing a perfect game through 4.

    Didn't see this one coming.


  3. #33323
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    I got my NFL Giants pick right. Let's try again this week:

    New Orleans +125 moneyline (+2.5 ok) vs Tampa Bay
    Atlanta +10.5 at Rams
    San Francisco -8.5 vs Seattle

    Looks like someone figured out fading the public is the only way to make money on sundays.

    New Orleans got me too

  4. #33324
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Going to be hard to say this and truly mean this with KC and Buffalo playing as well as they are, but Miami may end up leading the NFL in scoring this year. They got themselves a real nerd calling the plays - hes like a bill james of football.

    Tua MVP +2000

  5. #33325
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    I got my NFL Giants pick right. Let's try again this week:

    New Orleans +125 moneyline (+2.5 ok) vs Tampa Bay
    Atlanta +10.5 at Rams
    San Francisco -8.5 vs Seattle

    Looks like someone figured out fading the public is the only way to make money on sundays.

    New Orleans got me too
    Worked again tonight. Eagles easily took it, bringing me to 7-1-1 on the early season.

  6. #33326
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Name:  8F5D1476-6ADB-4747-9E5A-05F2EFFD9FDE.gif
Views: 99
Size:  49.6 KB

  7. #33327
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Okay, while admittedly I haven't been as good at MLB lately as I have at NFL, time for a pick today.

    Starting at 5:10pm PT

    Kansas City (Lynch) +112 vs. Minnesota (Ober)

    Postseason hopes are pretty much over for Minnesota.

  8. #33328
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Okay, while admittedly I haven't been as good at MLB lately as I have at NFL, time for a pick today.

    Starting at 5:10pm PT

    Kansas City (Lynch) +112 vs. Minnesota (Ober)

    Postseason hopes are pretty much over for Minnesota.
    These last two weeks of the season were made just for you.


  9. #33329
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    So the total of the Browns/Steelers tomorrow is 38.5. And apparently betting under on very low totals like this have been very +EV the last few years or so. Although I suspect that a lot of these low totals were weather related, and not due to horrible QBs and good defenses, like this matchup has. So it might be an apples to oranges situation, and the strong trend isn't that relevant.

  10. #33330
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Okay, while admittedly I haven't been as good at MLB lately as I have at NFL, time for a pick today.

    Starting at 5:10pm PT

    Kansas City (Lynch) +112 vs. Minnesota (Ober)

    Postseason hopes are pretty much over for Minnesota.
    These last two weeks of the season were made just for you.


    Thank you. I hope so.

    This one was leading the entire way, though the lead was shaved down to 1 on two occasions, so it wasn't a breeze. But I felt the entire way it was going to win.

    Minnesota just feels like a team that has given up and burnt out at this point.

  11. #33331
    Diamond BCR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post
    So the total of the Browns/Steelers tomorrow is 38.5. And apparently betting under on very low totals like this have been very +EV the last few years or so. Although I suspect that a lot of these low totals were weather related, and not due to horrible QBs and good defenses, like this matchup has. So it might be an apples to oranges situation, and the strong trend isn't that relevant.
    I’m actually going to this one tomorrow night. I looked at that total and thought under right off the bat. Then I thought about it a little more and it gave me pause.

    My main concern if I’m under is the Browns have been having blown coverage fails late in both games and I think Tomlin is probably one bad Trubisky quarter and a half from throwing in their rookie Pickett.

    I think he might be a pretty significant shot in the arm upgrade right off the bat. It’s a matter of when not if that he makes the switch.

    Chubb wearing teams down is the best part of Cleveland’s offense. I think a possible QB switch at some point in the second quarter or at half coupled with Chubb getting stronger as the game goes on makes the first half under 19.5 more attractive than the 38.5 imo

  12. #33332
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    I'm sitting out tomorrow's Browns/Steelers game. No lean on either the side or total, though Kalam's theory was interesting.

    Here is how I am leaning for Sunday, but I am not making these official nor betting them just yet.

    Washington vs. Philadelphia - Under 47
    Arizona vs. Rams - Under 48.5
    Atlanta -110 at Seattle

  13. #33333
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    If you can find a stale Minnesota -2.5 around id take it

  14. #33334
    Cubic Zirconia
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    If you can find a stale Minnesota -2.5 around id take it
    MLB?
    Is +200 good enough?

  15. #33335
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Mitch Keller has quietly been really solid lately.

    Pittsburgh (Keller) -112 vs Cubs (Wesneski)

  16. #33336
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    LFG

  17. #33337
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Got a sweat here. 2nd and 3rd, 2 out in bottom 9th, 3-2 Cubs.

    Rodolfo Castro up

    Edit: Nope. Nice line drive by Castro, but right to the center fielder. Game over.

    Pirates blew bases loaded in the 7th without scoring. I had a feeling that was going to be the decider. Two shitty teams, and the one I picked lost by 1.

    Oh well.

     
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      Sanlmar: Nepal will be there next week. Julio broke my heart too

  18. #33338
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    So down 9 with 4 minutes left Steelers punt it on 3rd and 3 from their own 13. Not sure about that one. I actually have Steelers +4.5, so punting is good for me, as IMO it increases the chance of a Steeler cover, while possibly decreasing their chance of winning. But given that ostensibly they are trying to win the game, not sure a punt is the optimal play there.

    Steelers still very very unlikely to cover, but more likely with the punt IMO.

  19. #33339
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    WTF. Steelers have 4th and 5, and Browns have 12 men on the field during the FG try and it is a 5 yard penalty, but they only give them 4 yards for some reason. If you look at the box score they actually put it in as a 4 yard penalty, which is impossible. So Stealers kick the FG on 4th and 1 and will lose by 6 and dont cover. Some real fishy stuff going on here.

    How the hell do you just decide to make too many men on the field a 4 yard penalty? It is amazing, they dont even pretend anymore they aren't rigging the games. I guess they know we are all going to bet anyways even knowing it is rigged, so why should they care? Jokes on us.

    And of course what really sucks is that I was in the same spot last week, except I had the favorite (Chiefs) and the Chargers went for it and converted on 4th and 10 to get the cover.
    Last edited by Kalam; 09-22-2022 at 07:19 PM.

  20. #33340
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Now that we're coming into the weekend, let's do some NFL picks. Hopefully I'm not too early this time.

    Jacksonville +7 at Chargers (bet soon, line probably going to 6.5)
    Indianapolis +200 vs Kansas City (+5.5 ok)
    Atlanta -103 at Seattle
    Washington vs. Philadelphia - Under 47 -105
    Arizona vs. Rams - Under 48.5



    (Lucky post #48,000 for me.... hopefully!)

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