Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #34581
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post
    And in case anyone was wondering, yes I had Utah St. +16.5 yesterday in a freak end of game beat that is on the very short list for worst gambling beats of all time.


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  2. #34582
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by 4BET View Post
    Normally don’t do a lot of teasers but have did well with them last few days, Seems everyone likes Ohio st, I will take Michigan here,because their all star running back isn’t 100% I have to play in a rare college/ pro mix teaser. Michigan + 15 over Ohio st, Tennessee in the pros tomorrow + 8 1/2
    Great pick with Michigan, obviously teaser not needed.

    I'm glad you don't usually do teasers, but I'll tell you that books make a fortune on them. There's tons of EV cooked into most teasers on the book side.

    The rule of thumb: If you really want to tease, do a parlay instead. Much much better value.

    The only exception is if it's football and the starting line is between -8.5 to -7.5, or +2.5 to +1.5. Preferably on a low total game. Those teasers are mostly okay, though still not +EV.

    It's your money and you can do what you want, but just wanted to point that out.
    Conventional wisdom I suppose

    Last year the books took a licking on NFL teasers and legal books responded by charging more (ridiculous) juice. My personal thinking is that there is no more efficient market in the world than NFL lines. Teasers allow you to move off that highly refined number.

    There is a time and a season

    It’s your money and you can do what you want

  3. #34583
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by 4BET View Post
    Normally don’t do a lot of teasers but have did well with them last few days, Seems everyone likes Ohio st, I will take Michigan here,because their all star running back isn’t 100% I have to play in a rare college/ pro mix teaser. Michigan + 15 over Ohio st, Tennessee in the pros tomorrow + 8 1/2
    Great pick with Michigan, obviously teaser not needed.

    I'm glad you don't usually do teasers, but I'll tell you that books make a fortune on them. There's tons of EV cooked into most teasers on the book side.

    The rule of thumb: If you really want to tease, do a parlay instead. Much much better value.

    The only exception is if it's football and the starting line is between -8.5 to -7.5, or +2.5 to +1.5. Preferably on a low total game. Those teasers are mostly okay, though still not +EV.

    It's your money and you can do what you want, but just wanted to point that out.
    Thanks, Agree I really don’t like teasers that much but the fact Michigan running back was hurt thought I might need it plus lifting a +2 1/2 pro game to 8 1/2 seemed to make sense here
    -Allergic to the struggle

  4. #34584
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    Wisconsin looking like trash, Need a pick or fumble to get this offense going
    -Allergic to the struggle

  5. #34585
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Oregon too good.

    My inability to hit moneyline dogs continues, even though it went off as a slight favorite.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by 4BET View Post
    Normally don’t do a lot of teasers but have did well with them last few days, Seems everyone likes Ohio st, I will take Michigan here,because their all star running back isn’t 100% I have to play in a rare college/ pro mix teaser. Michigan + 15 over Ohio st, Tennessee in the pros tomorrow + 8 1/2
    Great pick with Michigan, obviously teaser not needed.

    I'm glad you don't usually do teasers, but I'll tell you that books make a fortune on them. There's tons of EV cooked into most teasers on the book side.

    The rule of thumb: If you really want to tease, do a parlay instead. Much much better value.

    The only exception is if it's football and the starting line is between -8.5 to -7.5, or +2.5 to +1.5. Preferably on a low total game. Those teasers are mostly okay, though still not +EV.

    It's your money and you can do what you want, but just wanted to point that out.
    You see Druff unlike you we don't think we have a system that can beat the books, we know we aren't going to so this shit is mainly for fun. We know teasers are shit EV but we don't care! This is entertainment and nothing more.

    I mean we all know how betting 50 random basketball games a week is such +EV right?

     
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      4BET: Obv we do try and beat the book it is just entertainment

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    NBH, teasers were heavily studied and proven to be highly -EV, because they underpay you what you should otherwise get.

    If you still want to play them, that's fine, but honestly this is well established. You'll win a lot more parlaying.

    NFL is the best thing to tease but only if it's fairly evenly matched and only if the lines I mentioned. I used to do teasers all the time when they were +EV to do, but they degraded lines enough to stop that. But if you stick to the guidelines I posted, they aren't too bad.

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    Oregon State teasing me by running off a quick 21-3, and now just down by 3.

    None of these comebacks have held up for me lately. Let's see if this one can.

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    Wow, Oregon went for it up 34-31, 4th and 1 on own 29. Failed.



    Now Oregon State can take the lead.

    No idea why they didn't punt there.


    Edit: Yep. TD. 38-34 now. Holllllld

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    Quote Originally Posted by NaturalBornHustler View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post

    Great pick with Michigan, obviously teaser not needed.

    I'm glad you don't usually do teasers, but I'll tell you that books make a fortune on them. There's tons of EV cooked into most teasers on the book side.

    The rule of thumb: If you really want to tease, do a parlay instead. Much much better value.

    The only exception is if it's football and the starting line is between -8.5 to -7.5, or +2.5 to +1.5. Preferably on a low total game. Those teasers are mostly okay, though still not +EV.

    It's your money and you can do what you want, but just wanted to point that out.
    You see Druff unlike you we don't think we have a system that can beat the books, we know we aren't going to so this shit is mainly for fun. We know teasers are shit EV but we don't care! This is entertainment and nothing more.

    I mean we all know how betting 50 random basketball games a week is such +EV right?

    I can beat the books easily betting live when i'm goofed up on acid. My results are undeniable. Laugh if you want but I somewhat proved it with my posting record

    Volume/Value betting is a grind that similar to poker only a few percent have the discipline to make a worthwhile profit (Don't include myself)

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    Firing Vanderbilt +14. Wisconsin a joke 1st and goal from the 5 yard line with 40 seconds left 4 flags later morons end up 1st and goal from the 30 could have tied and gave me some hope for win in OT
    -Allergic to the struggle

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    I think I've got Oregon State. Oregon just had the ball 5 yards from goal with 1st down, and couldn't get it across in 4 tries. They couldn't kick a FG because that would still have left them down 1.

    Oregon State has the ball with 2 mins left.

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    NCAAB

    Central Michigan +9.5 -106 at California Baptist

  14. #34594
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    Firing on Vandy leaves me hoping Tennessee don’t care about this game. I mean 2 or 3 weeks ago they were #1 in some polls then get pounded by Georgia and SC now this. How do they get up this game now that National title is off the table
    -Allergic to the struggle

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    Quote Originally Posted by 4BET View Post
    Firing on Vandy leaves me hoping Tennessee don’t care about this game. I mean 2 or 3 weeks ago they were #1 in some polls then get pounded by Georgia and SC now this. How do they get up this game now that National title is off the table
    I had Vandy, so to answer your question yes.

    This is one of the all time gut punch days for me. Losing the games I am supposed to lose. And losing in spectacular fashion the ones there is seemingly no way I can lose.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by 4BET View Post
    Firing on Vandy leaves me hoping Tennessee don’t care about this game. I mean 2 or 3 weeks ago they were #1 in some polls then get pounded by Georgia and SC now this. How do they get up this game now that National title is off the table
    I had Vandy, so to answer your question yes.

    This is one of the all time gut punch days for me. Losing the games I am supposed to lose. And losing in spectacular fashion the ones there is seemingly no way I can lose.
    We are not done yet, Hopefully Tennessee will give us some cheap points as the game goes on. They don’t want their guys getting hurt
    -Allergic to the struggle

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    Quote Originally Posted by 4BET View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post

    I had Vandy, so to answer your question yes.

    This is one of the all time gut punch days for me. Losing the games I am supposed to lose. And losing in spectacular fashion the ones there is seemingly no way I can lose.
    We are not done yet, Hopefully Tennessee will give us some cheap points as the game goes on. They don’t want their guys getting hurt
    Sorry. I regret to inform you that isn't how weeks like this work. It isn't a roller coaster. It is a free fall. Sorry you had to come along as collateral damage.

     
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      4BET: You were correct, Was no hope

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    As usual I win in football and lose in basketball.

    4-1 in NCAAF, including a +130 win

    0-1 in NCAAB

    Breakers looking good so far (thanks ok25)

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    Quote Originally Posted by ok25 View Post
    Bet on New Zealand Breakers in the Australian NBL in about 14 hrs

    1st Half -2.5
    Game - -5.5

    I have won just over 9000 on them so far this season

    Held a good scoring team to 6 points in the 2nd Qtr last game out.

    Great D, Coach + Three afroman-americans running the majority of their offense who are highly motivated every game and very consistent

    Only hesitation is lack of home court experience (0 last season due to magic virus that scared pussy brains)

    Should be a 15+ point win

    Cover with 31 extra

    65-47 at HT

    116-79


     
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  20. #34600
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    As usual I win in football and lose in basketball.

    4-1 in NCAAF, including a +130 win

    0-1 in NCAAB

    Breakers looking good so far (thanks ok25)
    Nice record in NCAAF, Wish I would have tailed. After a good Thursday and Friday late yesterday went down hill. Not horrible,even betting 2 complete trash teams yesterday still even last 4 days pending outcome of 2nd leg of teaser tenn + 8 1/2 this will put me up 6 units ( some love to put in units). Will hope to get back on winning track in NFL today. I agree with NBH at the end of the day this is just entertainment
    -Allergic to the struggle

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