Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #32681
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    I was too busy to post the reason for my Cardinals under pick, but it was because Dakota Hudson was looking really good last time out, and I believed he would continue it against the hapless D-backs.

    I was correct. He went 6 innings of 1 hit ball.

    Unfortunately, the D-backs pitcher, who I knew was nothing special, gave up 5 runs, and then a middle reliever was left in too long, and we had an 8-0 game after 6 (also thanks to an error and some embarrassing stolen bases, including one by Yadier Molina).

    Sad!

    Interesting how the books have adjusted to the lower scoring, though. Most over/unders today were 7-8 runs.

  2. #32682
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Willis over 35.5 really feels like free money at this point.

    Bucs Vikings and titans aren’t taking a QB. Means someone would have to trade up. If someone was goi g to trade up for a QB they would have “paid the price” for the back of the first round where they get a 5th year of control on the contract.

  3. #32683
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    MLB favorites were 11-1 yesterday. It’s like NHL was until late season.

    Betting the same 1 unit on every MLB favorite this season would net about +12 units with about a 4% ROI.

    Doing that same for every dog this season would net a loss of about -42 units with an ROI of about -14.8%.

    That’s some fine fine balanced action right there folks …. lulz

    The favorite win rate this season is 62.94%, which would equate to a no vig line of -169.84. Important number for guys like me and Simp. Guys with money and looks.

    The average price of all the favorites at the close so far this season is -158.84, implying a 61.36% probability

    Do you think the books are gonna come after the favorites?

    xwOBA god Nestor Cortes for Yankees @8:10p vs “who like boobies?” Bubic Kansas City - sorry sizzle

    Early stuff I love
    Yankees F5 -.5 -140 vs Royals.

    Parlay Dodger/Giants (rare acceptable full games) +100’ish.

    Yeah, I see the judgement in your eyes. Just remember, I was the guy doing Giants Dodger daily parlays for long stretches last year. You would queue that bet up every morning and ask, “why not?” There was never a reason not to.

    It’s baseball and I’ve called my therapist late at night before

    I could repeat some attractive under numbers but I believe there is more than one ball being used. Not maliciously but poor Rawlings quality control on far away islands. You can get clues live but I’m hating the live numbers this year. They are sharper than ever.

    I’m still catching up on circuitp’s post too.

    Don’t misconstrue me. MLB is still garbage this year. We are between innings with NHL - playoffs start Monday
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 04-29-2022 at 09:17 AM.

  4. #32684
    Silver Sandwich's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sandwich View Post
    UFC Saturday Fight Night early bets...

    Carlos Candelario +200
    Grant Dawson -180
    Marlon "Chito" Vera +120

    I have my eye on three others, Gina Mazany (favorite), Tristan Connelly (underdog) and Andrei Arlovski (favorite), but I'll wait for the weigh ins and face-offs tomorrow to pull the trigger depending on how they look and the post-weigh in lines.
    Alright, post-weigh ins, I've added:
    Gina Mazany -180
    Tristan Connelly +150
    Andrei Arlovski -135

    Unfortunately headliner Rob Font missed weight so I don't love the fact that I bet his opponent (Marlon "Chito" Vera) yesterday, but now the line has moved to the +110 range so in the immortal words of Carl Spackler, I got that going for me, which is nice.

  5. #32685
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Lost 2 in a row. Let's try to hit 2 today.

    Seattle (Brash) -109 at Miami (E. Hernandez)

    Texas (G. Richards) +118 vs. Atlanta (I. Anderson)


    Marlins have two very good starters in Pablo Lopez and Sandy Alcantara, but the team's offense still blows. You could do worse than auto-fading the other 3 pitchers in the rotation, at least for now. They're averaging just 3.83 runs per game on offense.

  6. #32686
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Willis over 35.5 really feels like free money at this point.

    Bucs Vikings and titans aren’t taking a QB. Means someone would have to trade up. If someone was goi g to trade up for a QB they would have “paid the price” for the back of the first round where they get a 5th year of control on the contract.

    Lol - over 62 looking good

    Everyone in here trying to beat MLB and they giving away free money.

  7. #32687
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Over 81.5 cashes

    Sorry to anyone who had the under 82.5

  8. #32688
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Willis over 35.5 really feels like free money at this point.

    Bucs Vikings and titans aren’t taking a QB. Means someone would have to trade up. If someone was goi g to trade up for a QB they would have “paid the price” for the back of the first round where they get a 5th year of control on the contract.

    Lol - over 62 looking good

    Everyone in here trying to beat MLB and they giving away free money.
    There is so much going on. I know the draft is huge but I have given the draft absolutely no attention.

    You gotta care enough to follow it and I don’t. Not so much the NFL fan anymore.

    I am fascinated by the new college free agency and NIL deals though

  9. #32689
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    I’m not one for laying -200 on anything that isn’t getting near “lock” territory.

    That said it’s clear to me Rham is on a mission this weekend and there ain’t anything Alex Bleeping Smalley is going to do about that today.

    One of the other chasers with some experience and class may go low and give the Spaniard a challenge tomorrow. I don’t think it will be this kid ranked 205th his first time anywhere near a spotlight.

  10. #32690
    All Sorts of Sports gut's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gut View Post
    a few draft hunches mixed with some degen dart throws.

    Gardner 1st CB -140 L
    Cine 2nd S +175 L
    Ridder 1st qb +1000 L and 2nd qb +400 W
    Willis 1st qb, Ridder 2nd +600 L
    J Williams o11.5 +120 W
    J Johnson II o7.5 -175 W
    R McCreary u47.5 -115 W
    Ridder going 2nd saved it for me, and turned a slight profit, but goddamn the near misses. Gardner and Cine literally 1 pick behind. I thought that Stingley chatter was just smoke.

    Shouldve faded Willis instead of Pickett. Pickett-Ridder 1-2 combo was +800 I think. Oh well. Steelers still apparently can't get over the Marino miscue.

  11. #32691
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    I’m not one for laying -200 on anything that isn’t getting near “lock” territory.

    That said it’s clear to me Rham is on a mission this weekend and there ain’t anything Alex Bleeping Smalley is going to do about that today.

    One of the other chasers with some experience and class may go low and give the Spaniard a challenge tomorrow. I don’t think it will be this kid ranked 205th his first time anywhere near a spotlight.
    Tailing

    Gl us

  12. #32692
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    I’m not one for laying -200 on anything that isn’t getting near “lock” territory.

    That said it’s clear to me Rham is on a mission this weekend and there ain’t anything Alex Bleeping Smalley is going to do about that today.

    One of the other chasers with some experience and class may go low and give the Spaniard a challenge tomorrow. I don’t think it will be this kid ranked 205th his first time anywhere near a spotlight.
    Tailing

    Gl us
    Doesn’t qualify for the “entertained” treatment but it still paid the bills.

     
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      Dan Druff: Yep. Thanks

  13. #32693
    Silver Sandwich's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sandwich View Post
    Carlos Candelario +200 VOID, fight cancelled
    Grant Dawson -180 W
    Marlon "Chito" Vera +120 W
    Gina Mazany -180 L
    Tristan Connelly +150 L
    Andrei Arlovski -135 W, very suspect split decision
    Up about a half unit

  14. #32694
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    I don’t originate my own MLB plays. Here are a list of season long stuff I have in via some sharp fellas



    Gausman AL Cy +2000


    Big no on the Gausman +2000.

    .

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  15. #32695
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Yeah I whiffed the Gausman thing. Of course, it's only been 4 weeks.

    Funny how the other two I liked on your list -- Merrifield leading in hits and Robert MVP -- are both looking awful. Of course, both had long odds.

    Oh well.. that's why I don't do long futures.

  16. #32696
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Today is an under extravaganza:

    Angels (Sandoval) at White Sox (Cease) - Under 7.5 -125 (Under 7 +100 ok)
    Atlanta (Fried) at Mets (Bassitt) - Under 6.5 +100
    Oakland (Jeffries) vs Tampa (Rasmussen) - Under 6.5 +100

    Angels start in like 30 minutes, the rest are later today.

  17. #32697
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Yeah I whiffed the Gausman thing. Of course, it's only been 4 weeks.

    Funny how the other two I liked on your list -- Merrifield leading in hits and Robert MVP -- are both looking awful. Of course, both had long odds.

    Oh well.. that's why I don't do long futures.
    Merrifield is looking like aids

    I wouldn't write off Robert yet

    You nailed it though - when you playing the futures game you need to make sure you are getting longish odds. You won’t nail every one of these and sometimes they get written off quickly

    Which reminds me…… I think I already have my Heisman pick in and he’s available between 30 and 60 to one currently depending on the out. I don’t think this one is as good as stroud last year but I have a very good feeling about this one, for reasons I’ll explain later.

    If anyone wants to go 50/50 on my heisman pick that wants early access let me know.

  18. #32698
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Today is an under extravaganza:

    Angels (Sandoval) at White Sox (Cease) - Under 7.5 -125 (Under 7 +100 ok)
    Atlanta (Fried) at Mets (Bassitt) - Under 6.5 +100
    Oakland (Jeffries) vs Tampa (Rasmussen) - Under 6.5 +100

    Angels start in like 30 minutes, the rest are later today.
    I’ve seen enough. This could be the season of Druff. Until they change balls again.

  19. #32699
    Plutonium lol wow's Avatar
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    season of druff? good lord son

  20. #32700
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lol wow View Post
    season of druff? good lord son
    You can hardly accuse me of taking the popular side.

    Basketball, football and hockey do all they can to promote scoring - to the detriment of basketball and football.

    Along comes baseball. I’m siding with the ball being more of an accidental outcome due to crummy quality control and cost savings on some third world island.

    There is a generation of bettors who have no experience with unders. Even when they know it’s the right side they’ll just pass.

    Obv gotta choose your spots.

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