*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[SlowRoll]

NBA Player Props - Scenarios to Target

Scenario 3 - High Rebound % Center

These are centers who have a solidified role on their team as the primary rebounder, and their rebounding is a critical part of the teams success.

What Changes In The Playoff Environment?
- Extended minutes for these centers
- More contested shots are taken, resulting in a higher percentage of missed shots and more potential rebounds.
- Less fouls called by officials

This Results of This Environment on These Players?
1. They have more opportunity to rebound
2. They are less likely to be in foul trouble throughout the game due to officiating changes in playoffs.

Who Are They?
1. Jonas Valanciunas (New Orleans)
2. Rudy Gobert (Utah)

[SlowRoll]

NBA Player Props - Scenarios to Target

Scenario 4 - "The New Guys"

These are players whose play has trended in the positive direction throughout the season. They have stepped up when their team needed them and are now being rewarded with important playoff minutes

What Changes In The Playoff Environment?
- Extended minutes for these players
- They are being allowed to be the #1 scoring options for short periods of time
- These guys haven't been in NBA arenas playing in playoff atmosphere. They are feeding off of it positively.

This Results of This Environment on These Players?
1. More opportunity
2. Extended minutes

Who Are They?
1. Jordan Poole (Golden State)
2. Tyrese Maxey (Philadelphia)

[SlowRoll]

NBA Player Props - Scenarios to Target

Bonus - Live Scenarios

A specific situation that I've been looking for is a star player (#1 or #2 on their team) who is underperforming and will need to score points in order for his team to remain competitive in the game.
I'm specifically looking for
- Live points total is 80% or less of their season average
- A proven player who will continue to be given opportunity, even if he continues to miss shots
- Must be able to create his own shots
- His team must not have an incentive to slow down to pace of the game
- His team must be somewhat limited in offensive options

I found 2 live lines that qualified for this in the past 2 nights of NBA
1. Kris Middleton o13.5 points @-105 (April 20)
I picked this up at halftime when Kris had 3 points.
- He averages ~20 in regular season games.
- He's an elite NBA player, great shooter and can create his own shot

2. CJ McCollum o20.5 points @ -110 (April 19)
I picked this up, prior to the 4th quarter when CJ had 15 points.
- He averages ~22/game regular season
- The suns were pushing the pace, Pelicans needed to keep scoring in order to win
- He's an elite NBA player, great shooter and playmaker

Players to watch for this scenario in the coming days:
1. Demar Derozan - He's Chicago's go to scorer.
2. Donovan Mitchell
3. Chris Paul (if Devin Booker is out)
4. Brandon Ingram / CJ McCollum

[SlowRoll]

All that being said
I'm still a degenerate at heart and bet my entire Caesar's balance on a tennis match because I red a convincing write up on reddit.
Match was supposed to go off 7 hours ago, but its been delayed due to rain.
I hope that's good for the total games over..... o21.5 games Schwartzman vs Musetti.....

[Sandwich]

Saturday UFC Fight Night value, imo…
Philipe Lins +110
Preston Parsons -125
Sergey Khandozkho -118
Jordan Wright +170
Charles Jourdain -110
Maycee Barber -175
Claudio Puelles -110

[Dan Druff]

Last minute:

Cleveland (E. Morgan) +165 at NY Yankees (Taillon)

Taillon generated just 3 swing-and-miss strikes out of 69 pitches in his last start.

[Dan Druff]

Aaron judge has 1 HR in 13 games and of course he has to get his 2nd in my first fade of the Yankees.

2-0 New York, and Taillon missing bats this time. Uh oh.

[Sanlmar]

Aaron judge has 1 HR in 13 games and of course he has to get his 2nd in my first fade of the Yankees.

2-0 New York, and Taillon missing bats this time. Uh oh.

No worries, that’s what left coast “late night get right” games are all about.

Dodgers/San Diego Padres over 4 -115 for 1st 5 Innings
Dodgers/San Diego Padres over 8 -117 for Game

I know you know but for the rest of you.

Urias is nothing special. He had a short rough spring. Drop velocity is most significant. His last outing was good but against the lol Reds (Reds are bottom MLB offense). Padres smash lefties. Urias will be on a short leash.

Padres Nick Martinez is 31 and fresh off working a sushi bar in Japan. He’s been knocked around this spring.

Both bullpens are great so I’d lean 1st 5.

I need to fade evenings in Dodger Stadium and the dead ball era. Unders are back Druff. The lines are cratering though. We might have been too slow.


I like Mariners too.

[Sanlmar]

If the Dodgers game doesn’t work out we have an emergency parachute packed.

10:35pm Washington Capitals -½ -110 for 1st Period

Caps are playing the Arizona Coyotes who are an absolute joke. They are a minor league team staffed by minor league players now. They are building a 5000 seat arena on a college campus for next year.

The over 6.5 is a good look too and if you wanna get cute wait a few minutes and see if you can get a discount or a 6 live.

I shouldn’t need to say it but this all presumes you are Mitchell-galing each subsequent play.

[Dan Druff]

Indians offense such garbage.

Judge just killed them tonight.

[SlowRoll]

I took a live line on Tyrese Maxey over 15 points @ +135 at halftime.

[Sandwich]

Saturday UFC Fight Night value, imo…
Philipe Lins +110 W
Preston Parsons -125 W
Sergey Khandozkho -118 W
Jordan Wright +170 L
Charles Jourdain -110 W
Maycee Barber -175 W
Claudio Puelles -110 W

Up 4.14 Units

[Dan Druff]

Oakland (Irvin) +101 vs. Texas (G. Richards)

[Sandwich]

Oakland (Irvin) +101 vs. Texas (G. Richards)

Is Garrett Richards even a starting pitcher? -105 is the best I can find, but this looks tempting at even that price.

[Daly]

Can’t wait to fade Jonn Rahm in Mexico next week

*checks list of players*

Guess I’m betting Rahm this week.

[Daly]

For the record I’ve had the PGA second place finisher three weeks in a row.

Talk about kissing your sister

[Daly]

Personally I’m backing Burns/Horchel where I can get +1300 or better.

That said Clark/Tringale are +2900 in the real time exchange and are still hanging around at +7000 on some locals. If you like a value deal this is it.

Should have bet Tringale top 10 and left it alone……. User error here

[Daly]

[Kalam]

By the time I checked my app the first game had already started (LOL 10 am starts PST), but I took the road favorites for the remaining 3 games.

0-1 halfway through the Miami game where they have a ~10 point lead. Meh.

[Jah]

For the record I’ve had the PGA second place finisher three weeks in a row.

Talk about kissing your sister

Not that you need validation from the likes of me, but your eye for value is unparalleled. Picking good spots is all you can do.

Betting golf is like betting a roulette number, and the wheel spins once a week. Even if you find great value and have a couple % edge, it's no way to make a living. I treat golf betting money the same way I treat money I take to Vegas. Kiss it goodbye before I even bet it, enjoy the ride, and if there's anything left at the end it's a bonus.

Also the sick thing about golf bets that get close, when you have $1K on Cam Smith to win the Masters at 35-1 and it all goes wrong late on Sunday, there are moments where it feels like you lost $35K and not the $1K you bet. It's such a sick weird feeling.