*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[Dan Druff]

A few notes on today's MLB:

- Sharps are not really on any of my picks. Sometimes my picks coincide with the MLB sharps community, sometimes they don't. Today they don't.

- The Pit/Tex under is one of the rare times I am going AGAINST reverse line movement -- that is, the books are moving the line in attempt to get lopsided action on the under, which isn't a good sign. However, I still like the pick enough to make it. Keep this in mind if you are considering this one (it starts in about an hour)

- The NY/Cin game is a Trapper John MD game, in my opinion. You have the excellent-so-far Luis Castillo facing the bad Jason Vargas and yet you can get a line like -105 on Castillo and the Reds. I suspect this is a trap, but my feeling isn't strong enough to bet on the Mets, and I hate Vargas so much it's hard to lay anything on this guy, especially when he's facing someone like Castillo. But I am definitely seeing some trap signs with it, including reverse line movement.

[Dan Druff]

Jays +130. Ride me til Vladdy loses

We have something in common. This pick is also going against reverse line movement today.

Despite what appears to be relatively even distribution on moneyline bets on Toronto and Anaheim (yes, I said Anaheim), the books are pushing hard to get people to lay more on Toronto.

Would be nice if we both win and show those books a thing or two.

[simpdog]

Curry and Harden hurt when I bet over. Go figure

[Dan Druff]

Well speaking of getting bent over...

I had Pittsburgh under 11.

But I tried to get cute and put half on under 11 -105, and half on under 10 +138.

Felt like a genius as it was going to the 9th in a 3-0 game.

Then 3 runs in the top of the 9th ties it, and we go into extras.

Still in good shape, right?

Well, then in the 11th, Pittsburgh ran off 3 to make it 6-3.

Uh oh.

Then Texas scored one more to make it 6-4, and turn my under 10 +138 into a tie.

I had to hold my breath for the final out with a man on second, and the game ended 6-4.

But what a fucking disaster. 3-0 after 8 and I tie under 10.




Overall it was a good day though.

Hit the big Tigers underdog, won San Diego, and won this Pittsburgh one (but only got half because I got cute with the under 10). Only loss was the Cardinals over.

[Dan Druff]

Through 4/26:
Underdogs: 9-12 (+0.70)
Totals: 5-6-1 (-1.58)
Favorites: 3-2 (+0.71)
Total: 17-20-1, -0.17 units

4/27:
Texas (Minor) -106 at Seattle (Leake) - WON +0.94

4/28:
Texas (Lyyn) at Seattle (Swanson) - Under 9 -120 - LOST -1

4/29:
Chicago White Sox (Banuelos) vs. Baltimore (Means) - Under 8.5 -110 - WON +0.91

4/30:
St. Louis (Wainwright) at Washington (Anibal Sanchez) - Over 9.5 -115 - LOST -1
San Diego (Paddack) -105 at Atlanta (Teheran) - WON +0.95
Detroit (Turbull) +176 at Philadephia (Velazquez) - WON +1.76
Pittsburgh (Lyles) at Texas (Sampson) - Under 11 -110 - WON +0.91
Total 4/30: 3-1, +2.62

4/27-4/30 Total: 5-2, +3.47

Season totals:
Underdogs: 10-12 (+2.46)
Totals: 7-8-1 (-1.76)
Favorites: 5-2 (+2.60)

Grand total season: 22-22-1, +3.30 units

-----------

Pretty hot recently.

9-2 since 4/25, up 8.69 units.

That's erased my bad 3-12 streak in early-mid April.

[Dan Druff]

Let's see if I can keep the hot streak going.

I wish simpdog were out here to comment, because one pick involves his Blue Jays. That game doesn't start til later, so maybe we will hear from him.

badguy once said that you're a sportsbetting fish if you get a play after all the sharps have bet it down. Also known around here as a form of #stalelines.

Sadly, I was taking a nap today and literally was asleep at the switch regarding the Cleveland/Miami game.

The Miami side is loved by sharps today, and the books keep bringing the line down (in reverse movement fashion) in order to encourage action on Cleveland. Still, I actually believe Miami is the favorite to win here, so I'll take them at a small dog, and wish I bet them earlier. Kluber's struggles are the main reason for the action on the Marlins.

The Blue Jays have the revitalized Marcus Stroman going against the Angels, who has been spectacular this season. The Angels appear to have a reliever starting the game in Luke Bard, but in reality, he's just an "opener", and the real bulk of the innings will go to Felix Pena. This "opener" crap needs to be watched carefully from a betting standpoint, as you always need to know the pitcher planned to get the bulk of the work. Pena has pitched well this season, but not as well as Stroman, and I generally like the Blue Jays here.


Miami (C. Smith) +116 vs. Cleveland (Kluber)
Toronto (Stroman) -103 at Angels (Bard)

[Dan Druff]

Decided I'm going with Portland +160 moneyline for tonight's game.

Keep in mind that the playoffs are hard to get an edge, so don't just blindly follow this. I also didn't have a particularly good NBA year.

But that's what I'm betting tonight.

Portland -4 also ok.

[Lord of the Fraud]

For those of you with access to BetStars.

Arsenal to win, BTTS, 5+ match corners and 40+ match booking points = 33/1

That is some amazing value because If I was pricing that bet myself it would be around 5/1

[Dan Druff]

Nice to finally hit an NBA playoff game, and a +160 dog at that.

After initially deciding that I didn't care for any of the offerings today (in either sport), I decided to go with the Blue Jays once again in tonight's late game.

This is one of those bets where I'm doing it because the line has moved high enough to where I feel there's value.

Consider:

- Aaron Sanchez has pitched well, though you're probably getting 6 innings out of him, max

- Toronto has scored 4-7 runs in 5 of the past 7 games, and 3+ runs in 6 of the past 7

- Tyler Skaggs, while having a good season so far, has never finished with an ERA below 4

- Aside from Trout, the Angels simply aren't very good

- The line is +156


The downsides:

- Toronto hasn't looked very good the last 2 games

- Sanchez walks a lot of people, and is fortunate to have an ERA of just 2.32

- The sharps aren't on this one

- There's reverse line movement -- but not the way we want. The books are trying to get action on the Jays, and I'm giving it to them! (I really avoid these spots, yet this is the second time I'm doing it this week! The other time I did win.)


Anyway...

Toronto (Aa. Sanchez) +156 at Anaheim (Skaggs)

If you can get +150 or better, fire on it if you dare.

[Dan Druff]

Woke up today saying to myself that I didn't like any of the games and wasn't going to pick.

I should have stuck to that.

simp, your Jays are terrible. Lineup is full of NL rejects (take your pick).

Your team is making the Angles look like World Series contenders.

[Dan Druff]

MLB:
Oakland (Brett Anderson) at Pittsburgh (Musgrove) - Over 8 +100
Settle (Kikuchi) at Cleveland (Bieber) - Under 8.5 -110

NBA:
Milwaukee +108 at Boston (+1.5 ok, currently +2/2.5 on Bovada)

[Dan Druff]

Personally (record won't reflect this), I ended up doing Milwaukee as half +2 -110 and half -6.5 +230

[ErickAA]

I am not really sportsbetting right now, but have an interesting story.

About 3 years ago I had a bookie that used to play poker at the same casino as me. So we would just square up when we saw each other at the casino. Anyways, one day he just stopped going to the casino, but I kept on betting and my negative balance kept getting bigger and bigger.

But I wasn’t too worried about it. I had the $$ to cover it and he knew where to find me so I figured when he wanted to he would just go to the casino and collect. And he had my phone number on top of that. Also, even though I had a pretty big negative number, I was crushing my football futures so I had a big payday coming at the end of football season.

Anyways, one day I went to login to my account and the website was down. I tried to call my bookie and his phone number was disconnected. And that was that. I never saw or heard from him again. I speculated that he had maybe gone to jail or owed a number he didn’t want to pay and skipped town or whatever. I really had no clue.

Anyways, fast forward to a couple days ago and he randomly walked into the casino I have been playing at. I asked him what happened and he says he changed betting servers, he changed his phone number and lost mine, and says he had kept going to the casinos and just hadn’t seen me. It is possible he was telling the truth, but I don’t know how likely, because chances are I would have run into him at a casino at some point. And it seems a pretty big coincidence he changed servers, changed phone numbers and lost my number all within a couple weeks.

Anyways, after we exchanged some pleasantries he went to some online database and showed me a pretty big negative number that he said was my balance. It seemed way too big, but I couldn’t remember what it should have been. I am guessing that was the balance before the futures, which never got graded. But I really don’t know.

Anyways, as a matter of good faith he said if I started betting with him again he would erase my balance and start over fresh, which is fine by me. I never had any problems with him (why should I as I always lost and payed him) And actually makes good business sense for him, as if he had demanded I pay the number I probably would have but wouldn’t have rejoined him. And he is definitely +EV to recover the number and more Eventually if I play with him, which I probably will.

Of course there is a chance in the unlikely event I actually win he will just say it is going towards my old balance, so he is just freerolling me, but we both know I bet 30 football games every weekend, So he probably isn’t too worried about me actually winning.

Anyways, he gave me a new account on a new server and that was that. Kind of an interering story I think. Maybe not.

[Dan Druff]

I still have that bookie who owes me $575 from 2016.

Such a weird story. Dude went broke, I was running hot in MLB, and he owed me $2380 at the peak while he was freerolling me with a "vacation" when he supposedly couldn't pay me.

Anyway I figured out what was going on, and he admitted being busto. Somehow I got all but $575 out of him, and then he stopped cold.

Occasionally he still plays 20-40 limit holdem in Vegas with thousands of $ in front of him.

Reached him in November and he claimed he was about to send $, then vanished again.

Why pay $1800 of a $2380 debt and then give up on the final $575?

So odd, but I'm about to just start blowing him up because I'm tired of it.

[Dan Druff]

That Oakland over pick... weird story too.

I was in the process of posting it as Oakland +119, then I looked at it again and decided it looked very much like Brett Anderson (former Dodger) was going to get bombed, so I changed it to an over.

Well, looks like either way it's probably good. 5-1 Oakland after 2. And so far Anderson is doing ok.

Sharps loved the Oakland moneyline, not the over.

[Sanlmar]

That Oakland over pick... weird story too.

I was in the process of posting it as Oakland +119, then I looked at it again and decided it looked very much like Brett Anderson (former Dodger) was going to get bombed, so I changed it to an over.

Well, looks like either way it's probably good. 5-1 Oakland after 2. And so far Anderson is doing ok.

Sharps loved the Oakland moneyline, not the over.

Muskrat love. Musgrove pathetic. Nice pick whatever the reason.

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

because it's never too early to get daly fired up about CFB O/U wins...

[Daly]

I am not really sportsbetting right now, but have an interesting story.

About 3 years ago I had a bookie that used to play poker at the same casino as me. So we would just square up when we saw each other at the casino. Anyways, one day he just stopped going to the casino, but I kept on betting and my negative balance kept getting bigger and bigger.

But I wasn’t too worried about it. I had the $$ to cover it and he knew where to find me so I figured when he wanted to he would just go to the casino and collect. And he had my phone number on top of that. Also, even though I had a pretty big negative number, I was crushing my football futures so I had a big payday coming at the end of football season.

Anyways, one day I went to login to my account and the website was down. I tried to call my bookie and his phone number was disconnected. And that was that. I never saw or heard from him again. I speculated that he had maybe gone to jail or owed a number he didn’t want to pay and skipped town or whatever. I really had no clue.

Anyways, fast forward to a couple days ago and he randomly walked into the casino I have been playing at. I asked him what happened and he says he changed betting servers, he changed his phone number and lost mine, and says he had kept going to the casinos and just hadn’t seen me. It is possible he was telling the truth, but I don’t know how likely, because chances are I would have run into him at a casino at some point. And it seems a pretty big coincidence he changed servers, changed phone numbers and lost my number all within a couple weeks.

Anyways, after we exchanged some pleasantries he went to some online database and showed me a pretty big negative number that he said was my balance. It seemed way too big, but I couldn’t remember what it should have been. I am guessing that was the balance before the futures, which never got graded. But I really don’t know.

Anyways, as a matter of good faith he said if I started betting with him again he would erase my balance and start over fresh, which is fine by me. I never had any problems with him (why should I as I always lost and payed him) And actually makes good business sense for him, as if he had demanded I pay the number I probably would have but wouldn’t have rejoined him. And he is definitely +EV to recover the number and more Eventually if I play with him, which I probably will.

Of course there is a chance in the unlikely event I actually win he will just say it is going towards my old balance, so he is just freerolling me, but we both know I bet 30 football games every weekend, So he probably isn’t too worried about me actually winning.

Anyways, he gave me a new account on a new server and that was that. Kind of an interering story I think. Maybe not.

I’d ask him to Clarify the arrangement BEFORE there are problems

[Dan Druff]

I need the Bucks to stop screwing around and just blow this out already by 20. I keep fearing that trash time will fuck my -6.5.

[Sanlmar]

I need the Bucks to stop screwing around and just blow this out already by 20. I keep fearing that trash time will fuck my -6.5.

This Boston kid has multiple Bucks futures. You are on the right side of the lord.

People talk about a Boston Slam but it will be the Celts that blow out a tire.

Kyrie is yours.