Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #20601
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
    Reputation
    4291
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    21,087
    Load Metric
    65638965
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Druff won’t respect me if I don’t chase some dogs occasionally.

    By the way, you know what happens to dogs who chase cars eventually? That’s right.

    I’m a Fiers guy. I like Greinke too but Houston lately..... Give a fuck much?
    MOBILE - BASEBALL - MLB - 963 OAKLAND ATHLETICS +170 FOR 1ST 5 INNINGS

    DeGrom who knows what’s up with him lately? The Mets fun and run seems over
    MOBILE - BASEBALL - MLB - 955 ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS +200 FOR 1ST 5 INNINGS

    Pay the 1st 5 juice cause you don’t know bullpens ... no one does
    Good news is that I considered betting Oakland (before even seeing this) and then decided against it.

    The bad news is that I've been horrible at dogs this year, so you don't want to be on my side on those.

    The worse news is that it's losing 6-0, and that Greinke doesn't often cough up a big lead once he has it.
    Astros 9-0 2nd

    Fiers lasted 1 complete inning.

    Assume the position

  2. #20602
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
    Reputation
    2670
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    10,304
    Load Metric
    65638965
    This game is bananas

  3. #20603
    Platinum Krypt's Avatar
    Reputation
    691
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Washington DC
    Posts
    4,286
    Load Metric
    65638965
    UNREAL FINISH

  4. #20604
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
    Reputation
    2670
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    10,304
    Load Metric
    65638965
    I think I can endorse LSU at 18-1

  5. #20605
    Bronze DrPeters's Avatar
    Reputation
    106
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    299
    Load Metric
    65638965
    as a diehard texans fan since day one, that one hurt

  6. #20606
    Rest In Peace
    Reputation
    142
    Join Date
    Jun 2015
    Posts
    930
    Load Metric
    65638965
    Quote Originally Posted by DrPeters View Post
    as a diehard texans fan since day one, that one hurt

    As a Saints M.l. bettor, egads...it was a thrilling finish..i have Houston to win SB at 35-1 by the by.

  7. #20607
    Bronze DrPeters's Avatar
    Reputation
    106
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    299
    Load Metric
    65638965

    Wink

    Quote Originally Posted by shoeshine box View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by DrPeters View Post
    as a diehard texans fan since day one, that one hurt

    As a Saints M.l. bettor, egads...it was a thrilling finish..i have Houston to win SB at 35-1 by the by.
    had texans +6.5, at least they covered

  8. #20608
    Platinum Krypt's Avatar
    Reputation
    691
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Washington DC
    Posts
    4,286
    Load Metric
    65638965
    That had to be a bad beat for the books right? Given the pending parlays and all the money on Hou spread etc

  9. #20609
    Diamond BCR's Avatar
    Reputation
    2014
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    6,863
    Load Metric
    65638965
    I see westgate opened Wisconsin-Michigan at UM-1.5. Its two weeks away, but both have byes. I was assuming and hoping Wisconsin was under a fg favorite. Praying that line is anywhere near pickem when it hits the board where I can bet it. I watched Michigan unable to push around MTSU lineman who maxed out at 6-2/280. Saw them struggle on both sides of the line against an army team with no one over 280. Think Wisconsin is going to crush them at camp Randall. That’s going to be a max straight bet, and hoping to see some alternative -20 +1000 type lines. I give Michigan almost no chance in the trenches and that game will be won in the trenches.

     
    Comments
      
      GambleBotsChafedPenis: This Post Brought Joy To My Heart Rep

  10. #20610
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
    Reputation
    4291
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    21,087
    Load Metric
    65638965
    Love letter to Druff

    Druff gives too much weight to the antiquated “sharps” vs “public” metric.

    I saw this today and it served to inspire me to pay more attention now. So Druff, after 145 games your time may have arrived - just not in the way you expected.

    Pros vs Joes is a nice confirmation of your handicap. Perhaps it’s a filter to bring attention to something you hadn’t looked at. That’s it. In the age of DFS and every Millenial scraping with Python & SQL the difference is largely size not insight

    In case you've abandoned baseball and want to get back in, we have about two weeks of regular season play left (roughly 17 games left for each team, to be exact). One of the easiest ways to profit from this final stretch is following line movement.

    This time of year is unique because casual bettors have left baseball and moved to football. As a result, contrarian value plummets because there is no more public to bet against. At this point, it's only sharps with an edge who are betting these games. For this reason, following big moves is profitable because these moves were caused solely by pros.

    According to Bet Labs Sports, teams that see the line move at least 10-cents toward them in games 145 to 162 have gone 1,116-881 (56%) since 2005, winning +64.78 units. Think of the Yankees going from -150 to -165. At no other point in the season is following big line moves this profitable.

     
    Comments
      
      Krypt:
      
      unchainedghost: Sage
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 09-10-2019 at 09:42 AM.

  11. #20611
    aka PP23 badguy23's Avatar
    Reputation
    673
    Join Date
    Jun 2012
    Posts
    6,064
    Load Metric
    65638965
    Boys sip some aloe vera water to this

    Angels +127

    Mets -122

    Total special of the Night which may be over b4 the 5th inning Dodgers Baltimore Over 10

    Id take first half to

  12. #20612
    aka PP23 badguy23's Avatar
    Reputation
    673
    Join Date
    Jun 2012
    Posts
    6,064
    Load Metric
    65638965
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Love letter to Druff

    Druff gives too much weight to the antiquated “sharps” vs “public” metric.

    I saw this today and it served to inspire me to pay more attention now. So Druff, after 145 games your time may have arrived - just not in the way you expected.

    Pros vs Joes is a nice confirmation of your handicap. Perhaps it’s a filter to bring attention to something you hadn’t looked at. That’s it. In the age of DFS and every Millenial scraping with Python & SQL the difference is largely size not insight

    In case you've abandoned baseball and want to get back in, we have about two weeks of regular season play left (roughly 17 games left for each team, to be exact). One of the easiest ways to profit from this final stretch is following line movement.

    This time of year is unique because casual bettors have left baseball and moved to football. As a result, contrarian value plummets because there is no more public to bet against. At this point, it's only sharps with an edge who are betting these games. For this reason, following big moves is profitable because these moves were caused solely by pros.

    According to Bet Labs Sports, teams that see the line move at least 10-cents toward them in games 145 to 162 have gone 1,116-881 (56%) since 2005, winning +64.78 units. Think of the Yankees going from -150 to -165. At no other point in the season is following big line moves this profitable.
    Druff is very smart but he has no clue when it comes to sports.

    First he is wrong half the time when he says public and sharp. Just because u have sports options and they say it doesnt mean shit and throw those % Out the window

    If u arent in front of your screen all day watching your line service your wasting money. Unless u have a local who moves slow. You have to have some knowledge not just some stupid service saying steam move. This isnt 1990 anymore these books all have sports options lol shit they prob pay them.
    The sports pager back in like 95 was money anytime a line moved 20 cents in baseball u bet it and u beat the book to it always and it won a ton.

    Druff this isnt poker buddy u need to watch the games or put your nickle bets to charity.

    U need to no were the line is gonna move druff U wait 4 mins b4 a game to bet it. Thats not profitable long term.

  13. #20613
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
    Reputation
    10110
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    54,626
    Blog Entries
    2
    Load Metric
    65638965
    Last munute: Boston (Eovaldi) at Toronto (Zeuch) - Under 10 +100

  14. #20614
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
    Reputation
    10110
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    54,626
    Blog Entries
    2
    Load Metric
    65638965
    Pittsburgh (Keller) +110 at San Francisco (Cueto) - Cueto's first start since very long injury, not much prep, won't pitch well

    Cubs (Quintana) at San Diego (Bolanos) - OVER 9 +100

  15. #20615
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
    Reputation
    4291
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    21,087
    Load Metric
    65638965
    I’m aligned with Druff and oppo badguy. Uh oh

    Name:  212C7A8D-4F55-4A61-93EA-771E03368040.jpeg
Views: 396
Size:  52.8 KB

    Name:  125AEE86-670F-4BDE-A6BF-5FE195169E78.jpeg
Views: 379
Size:  111.7 KB

    Thought Buehler would cough up a few. We will see if it’s necessary. 6-0 4th inn.
    That’s our Dodgers report for now

    Name:  8D7C71E2-4AB4-4199-BF39-25C1FE6267F2.jpeg
Views: 400
Size:  61.5 KB

    Astros Wade Miley getting shelled again. This is an important development

  16. #20616
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
    Reputation
    2670
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    10,304
    Load Metric
    65638965
    Shout out to the Red Sox For clinching the under 95 nice and early.

    At least Baltimore still has 4 more losses to go to lock up under 59

  17. #20617
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
    Reputation
    4291
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    21,087
    Load Metric
    65638965
    Nice work Druff

    Dreadful night for me

    Yelich done for the year (fractured kneecap) but Bellinger still won’t win HR derby. Bellinger misses Muncy

  18. #20618
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
    Reputation
    10110
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    54,626
    Blog Entries
    2
    Load Metric
    65638965
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Love letter to Druff

    Druff gives too much weight to the antiquated “sharps” vs “public” metric.

    I saw this today and it served to inspire me to pay more attention now. So Druff, after 145 games your time may have arrived - just not in the way you expected.

    Pros vs Joes is a nice confirmation of your handicap. Perhaps it’s a filter to bring attention to something you hadn’t looked at. That’s it. In the age of DFS and every Millenial scraping with Python & SQL the difference is largely size not insight

    In case you've abandoned baseball and want to get back in, we have about two weeks of regular season play left (roughly 17 games left for each team, to be exact). One of the easiest ways to profit from this final stretch is following line movement.

    This time of year is unique because casual bettors have left baseball and moved to football. As a result, contrarian value plummets because there is no more public to bet against. At this point, it's only sharps with an edge who are betting these games. For this reason, following big moves is profitable because these moves were caused solely by pros.

    According to Bet Labs Sports, teams that see the line move at least 10-cents toward them in games 145 to 162 have gone 1,116-881 (56%) since 2005, winning +64.78 units. Think of the Yankees going from -150 to -165. At no other point in the season is following big line moves this profitable.
    Don't know if i can agree with the "nobody betting baseball" thing, because football doesn't run every day.

    But interesting stats on the line moves.

  19. #20619
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
    Reputation
    10110
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    54,626
    Blog Entries
    2
    Load Metric
    65638965
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Nice work Druff

    Dreadful night for me

    Yelich done for the year (fractured kneecap) but Bellinger still won’t win HR derby. Bellinger misses Muncy

    Dodgers miss Muncy big time. My fantasy team misses both him and Keston Hiura.

    I hit both totals well. As usual I lost the underdog, though for the second night in a row, my dog came back from seemingly a dead position, and just fell short by a run.

  20. #20620
    Nova Scotia's #1 Party Rocker!!!!11 DJ_Chaps's Avatar
    Reputation
    939
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Halifax
    Posts
    6,604
    Load Metric
    65638965



    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Chaps' 2017-18 NFL $$ Thread

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Similar Threads

  1. Offers of thought on this one needed.
    By son of lockman in forum Flying Stupidity
    Replies: 17
    Last Post: 09-20-2013, 03:54 PM
  2. Sportsbook suggestions
    By Walter Sobchak in forum Flying Stupidity
    Replies: 4
    Last Post: 02-02-2013, 10:04 AM
  3. negotiating compensation from job offers
    By mulva in forum Flying Stupidity
    Replies: 5
    Last Post: 11-12-2012, 08:17 PM
  4. Best Sportsbook on the strip ?
    By FrenchJew in forum Poker Community Discussion
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 06-09-2012, 10:50 AM
  5. Vwls-Props for doing radio and making it interesting!
    By Pokehermaniac in forum Flying Stupidity
    Replies: 9
    Last Post: 06-01-2012, 07:36 PM

Tags for this Thread