I rode with you tonight Queen LatifaOriginally Posted by Krypt
Lets get this
I rode with you tonight Queen Latifa
Lets get this
Looks like Morant isn't going to play tonight... nor will anyone on that team
lol covid
This sweat is still alive despite Niemann not making a putt all day. Hope some of you are on it with me and he bounces back tomorrow and makes some putts.Going to ride with you. I was just going to put in an insurance bet on Niemann and concentrate on the Euro Tour next week. I’ll put some on your two horses as well.
Live bet penguins +200 and leafs +285
Hoping for one comeback.
Bad decision
2-4 today ouch.
7-5 on year. Will continue with 1p tomorrow
WhatÂ’s your thoughts on Rogers o9.5 rushing yards Daly? I think of pockets collapsing with a great line like the Rams have and that as the time when QBs tend to scramble. Rogers doesnÂ’t love to run, but he can if itÂ’s to move chains.
I havenÂ’t bet one of these in years. Victory formation is still rushing yards correct? Unlike sacks. I think he will scramble for 13 yards at some point. IÂ’m worried about giving 6 of it back on victory formations.
College hoops
Rice +135
Creighton -7.5
Michigan -5.5
I was looking at that Michigan game. They’re playing out of their mind lately. My only concerns were they’ve only played two road games, won both by 11 against meh teams. The main concern was the BIG has been skewing for years so hard that any visiting team ended up shooting 20 less free throws. Everyone at top of league would be something like 10–1 at home and 5-6 on the road.
I looked at some of the road games post Covid as I was curious if it was the crowd or league bias? Seems to not be nearly as pronounced this year, but it’s early. I’ll probably ride with that one also.
For sure im a bit biased but you can get Niemann Sony Open live +1200. He is playing very well tee to green, just couldn’t get a putt to drop yesterday. I obviously have enough exposure on him, but if I didn’t I would throw a few bucks on him at 12-1.
so its ravens buf over or what are we doing here nerds
I have to drive across state lines to bet. I was heading out in an hour or so. What time does he go off today? I just looked and he’s +1200 and +275 for top 5. How do they grade bets on top 5? Obviously it ends in ties often.
Forget time. Forgot it was in Hawaii.
Carolina -1.5 +100.
Bruins -195 ML
Victory formation goes against correct. Here is a look into my thought process on handicapping props which is a big part of my life now.
China Prop 101
While I have no opinion on this play I will share with you and everyone else part of my thought process when handicapping props. I'm not saying my way is right or correct or anyone elses way is wrong because there are many different angles to shoot when handicapping props. 2 guys could use completely different formulas and come up with a nice win rate.
With that said, I know my way works and I think my approach is the best ( at least for me and what I am trying to accomplish) and I have a win % in the mid 60s over 10,000+ plays easily and thats on the conservative side.
For me it is UNDER or NOTHING on O/U Football Props or always NO on YES/NO props. Football is a violent sport and you scoop most injuries on unders and the time and thought and speculation that goes into why something might happen (and the aggravation if your sweating it) can be trumped by doing some quick 4th grade math to figure out why something is more likely not to happen. The way I handicap these 95 % of the time you can just eliminate personal opinion and bias and just play the numbers. Or you can try and be Trent Dilfer and Ron Jaworski and waste hours of time and thought which can be used for more productive things.
I could go much deeper but that spells out where I come from. But best of luck if you make your play.
Sides and Totals
Lastly, and this goes for every side and total poster who reads this post. I was once a fish sports bettor like most everyone when I started. I had some success with action points and I am certainly a winner on those lifetime but they are hard to get down on nowadays. I was 100 % a sides and total loser up until a couple of years ago.
Progressively over the past 5 years I have morphed from poker into now a professional sports bettor exclusively. And I will say this, if you are not consistently beating the closing line then you will NEVER EVER make money in the long run if that is your goal. Your just tossing coins.
You either got to bet when the markets open or know when the #s are going to move and get ahead of them moving and there are ways to this if you put enough effort into it. But those are typically the best times to beat or get ahead of the closing #. If your not doing either of these you are flipping coins and losing about 5 % on every play slowly over time. Again if your not betting to make money this is fine , enjoy sweating true coinflips with a vig.
Last edited by chinamaniac; 01-16-2021 at 10:15 AM.
Also after a quick glance at the Rodgers play I got it close to a flip. He last played them Rams 2 years ago and had 1 carry for 5 yds in that game
Last edited by chinamaniac; 01-16-2021 at 10:31 AM.
Trying to beat the line was traditionally correct but has less value in the Covid era.
Additionally, I challenge you to bet Lakers opening lines without any idea (even late) who is going to play. LeBron is the new Brady. Probable/Questionable every day.
Load management is a big thing and will likely be a thing in NHL too.
College basketball early is suicide.... I’m gonna walk that back. It’s important
You on the Bryant basketball train, China?
Not as stealth as they were but still fine. Yesterday was easy bounce back spot.
The goal is always to beat the closing line. You just need to be quick on the trigger with covid news and scratches which produces bigger edges.
I don't bet major pro sports, waste of time when NCAA sports are going
College basketball early is suicide.... Well let me know how these did vs CL? These were todays earliest plays
Big fan
sorry whats that you just said sal
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