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Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #22661
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post

    In general I don't like handicapping solely from the standpoint of "such-and-such happened ATS in the last X games", because each game is different, and a lot of these trends are just the result of random distribution.

    Nobody is making decisions solely based on ATS.

    GBCP had given me some data from Pointsbet that was sweet. I’ll look at anything. Today he sent me some ATS publicly. Whatever.

    I think there is an advantage to breaking a game into small increments.

    Every day a team starts with the score 0-0. Some teams have a pretty consistent approach from the starter gun. Some start slow. Some quick, example. How will they match up. Give me the worst vs best ideally. Punt on stuff too close to call.

    If a game is a book the introduction may be consistent but the plot and resolution harder to envision and often never the same.

  2. #22662
    MEM 1Q again GBCP? I havenít dug too deep and as always who da fuck is playing?

    If you or Druff wanna look. I got other stuff

  3. #22663
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    MEM 1Q again GBCP? I havenít dug too deep and as always who da fuck is playing?

    If you or Druff wanna look. I got other stuff
    I can get behind that one...

    i'll offer up these for your perusal:
    DET +2.5 -118
    CHI/IND U 54 -110

  4. #22664
    Leafs -105 ml
    Leafs over 6

    Oilers -125

    Vancouver/SJ under 6

    Washington -1.5 +160
    Wash over 6.5 -105

     
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  5. #22665
    san another one for you...

    DK odds boost of the day...IND/PENN ST O 51 CBB...

    max bet $50...I mean now they're moving into the 'that's a damn nice little freebie'...

  6. #22666
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    I'll look at 1Q Memphis later.

    For now I have this one on the same game:

    Memphis at NY - Under 221.5

    Staying on the NY under train.

  7. #22667
    I posted at 3:00 am but I took down +250 fading Nadal pregame. Also nailed the total over


    Heard something interesting Iíll pass along.

    since 2003 when the total is 50 or higher in the Super Bowl the under is 4-1.

    Last year's Patriots-Rams total was 55.5 and New England won 13-3.

    In only 12% of Super Bowls does the spread matter. Pick a favorite and get value with an alternate line. Maybe 5 or 6 or 7 here


    I have no handicap. This idea might prompt me to try harder.

  8. #22668
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    I'll look at 1Q Memphis later.

    For now I have this one on the same game:

    Memphis at NY - Under 221.5

    Staying on the NY under train.
    In u222, If this loses i am gonna think i am a jinx like tellatubby
    -Allergic to the struggle

  9. #22669
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Fired WSH/NSH o6.5 -105

    Might do the SJ under when it gets closer. Still on the fence there.

    GL simp & everyone else

  10. #22670
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Great over pick on Washington, simp. 5 first period goals. LOL

    I'm not thrilled with my NY under after 1Q (64 points), but it's slowed down a bit in the 2nd. The Knicks can go on huge scoring droughts, such as this quarter where they have 2 points in the first 3:12.

  11. #22671
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    If anyone has a myb00kie.ag account Gay couple inna comercial is -240 but itís confirmed ellen and her wife are in one.

  12. #22672
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    I'll look at 1Q Memphis later.

    For now I have this one on the same game:

    Memphis at NY - Under 221.5

    Staying on the NY under train.
    We are done in this one, Two sorry teams scored 64 in the first and 69 in the 3q to seal our fate
    -Allergic to the struggle

  13. #22673
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Well thanks to simp, I got even for the day, with that Washington over, the sole pick I went with.

    I saw he went 3-3 overall.

  14. #22674
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    Getting nowhere betting NBA/NHL so going back to making 3-5 big bets a year on football, Next up all the money is going on the 49ers atm +1 1/2
    -Allergic to the struggle

  15. #22675
    Quote Originally Posted by 4BET View Post
    Getting nowhere betting NBA/NHL so going back to making 3-5 big bets a year on football, Next up all the money is going on the 49ers atm +1 1/2

    Yeah, sure 4BetsDown, I'm the unlucky one. Lullz.

     
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      4BET: Tough but fair

  16. #22676
    2-1 on the Q1s yesterday...

    on today's plate we have:
    PHL -2.5 v ATL -108
    UTH +1 v DEN +104...

    EDIT: sorry the UTH side is +104 here...
    Last edited by GambleBotsChafedPenis; 01-30-2020 at 02:44 PM.

  17. #22677
    Quote Originally Posted by 4BET View Post
    Getting nowhere betting NBA/NHL so going back to making 3-5 big bets a year on football, Next up all the money is going on the 49ers atm +1 1/2

    I say this to myself last week as I don't want to give back to the book, then I get a tip on best director for best director and fire Immediately... Juice on the bet has gone from -250 to - 800ish so I got that going for me but I get sick of the whole thing. I do t give a shit about sports at all and I hardly care about poker... Need something new

  18. #22678
    Purple Gatorade getting steamed down as low as +120
    Kobe Tribute

    I have +150. Sigh. Thinking

    It was +900 originally. Jeez. Preoccupied with tennis Daly?


    DEMI LOVATO LENGTH OF US NATIONAL ANTHEM - OVER 2 MINUTES 3 SECONDS -175
    I did this. Watched all performances... she is no Billie Eilish but she’s amazing.

    I am not a props guy but I now have more on props than game ($0)

    Leaning under
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 01-30-2020 at 09:45 AM.

  19. #22679
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    If anyone has a myb00kie.ag account Gay couple inna comercial is -240 but itís confirmed ellen and her wife are in one.
    You are welcome PFA



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  20. #22680
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Golden State at Boston - Over 224.5

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