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Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #29101
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    NHL
    Carolina -175 in regulation. Hawks are out, Carolina needs to keep a hold on first
    Penguins -116 in regulation. Both teams don't have much to play for. Alex Lyon is the reason here.
    Islanders /Buffalo over 5.5 +104 - likely backup for Islanders, and some new rookie for Buffalo.
    Dallas +110. Spencer Knight is hot 3-0 but he has faced 3 awful teams

    Bonus homer pick Leafs +101 in reg. Montreal has been awful lately, stick a fork in them.
    Decided to dip my toe in with simpdog hockey and go with one.

    I liked Pittsburgh the best here, from my limited NHL knowledge.

    GL

  2. #29102
    Gold JeffDime's Avatar
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    I was able to get a good chunk on Rahm at 13-1 and I couldn't resist. Keeping it simple. He is 11-1 in most books but still 12 at William Hill. I wouldn't love him at 11-1.

    As for the Euro Tour, I was really surprised at how shitty the odds are for a few horses I had my eye on. Can't imagine them going lower and sometimes it's best to let things shake out and catch these tournaments with no top level players after a round or two. Not firing anything yet and no confident read on the LPGA as of yet.

  3. #29103
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JeffDime View Post
    I was able to get a good chunk on Rahm at 13-1 and I couldn't resist. Keeping it simple. He is 11-1 in most books but still 12 at William Hill. I wouldn't love him at 11-1.

    As for the Euro Tour, I was really surprised at how shitty the odds are for a few horses I had my eye on. Can't imagine them going lower and sometimes it's best to let things shake out and catch these tournaments with no top level players after a round or two. Not firing anything yet and no confident read on the LPGA as of yet.
    You need a long hitter who cares enough about winning and not blowing in and out of here to get ready for the PGA.

    Iíve been waiting for a reason to get back behind Neimann. This week is it.

     
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      JeffDime: Done. LFG!

  4. #29104
    Gold JeffDime's Avatar
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    Covered Joaquin. +3300 most places. +3500 Draft Kings.

    I realize not everyone has access to different sites. If I see a certain app offering a better price, I’ll try to point it out. I know it sucks if you are in a place where it doesn’t help you. DK seems in general to over charge the favorites (JT 9-1, Rahm 10-1) and offer a little more value on the middle/long shots.
    Last edited by JeffDime; 05-03-2021 at 07:34 PM.

  5. #29105
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    NBA

    New York at Memphis - Over 221
    Utah vs. San Antonio - Under 220.5
    NY was too close for comfort after easily looking like it would cover (it ended up winning by 1), and Utah covered easily.

    Nice to go 2-0 after the recent slump.

  6. #29106
    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    NHL
    Carolina -175 in regulation. Hawks are out, Carolina needs to keep a hold on first win
    Penguins -116 in regulation. Both teams don't have much to play for. Alex Lyon is the reason here loss
    Islanders /Buffalo over 5.5 +104 - likely backup for Islanders, and some new rookie for Buffalo. win
    Dallas +110. Spencer Knight is hot 3-0 but he has faced 3 awful teams loss, should have went over on this one

    Bonus homer pick Leafs +101 in reg. Montreal has been awful lately, stick a fork in them bonus pick loss
    2-2 yesterday and lost the bonus pick.

    Carolina again in reg -217 just one pick today.

  7. #29107
    Gold JeffDime's Avatar
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    Gonna swallow the chalk and take Lydia ko for 800 at +600. She's played well last two weeks and figures to be right in the mix in this weakfish field. Even at the shit odds I'll take her

    Speaking of shit odds 400 on Valimaki at +2500. Guy was really slumping for a while but finally showed up last week. Very weak field. South Africans are the top 3 favorites and Dean is the second favorite. What a difference a week makes. Got to fade him this week. Didn't want to miss my chance to cash with valimaki even though I hate the price. Not going to get a weaker field than this

     
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      JoeD: Love me some Lydia Ko. Good luck!

  8. #29108
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Just one NBA pick. No MLB.

    Oklahoma City vs. Sacramento - Under 227 (Fox out, Barnes out)

  9. #29109
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JeffDime View Post
    Gonna swallow the chalk and take Lydia ko for 800 at +600. She's played well last two weeks and figures to be right in the mix in this weakfish field. Even at the shit odds I'll take her

    Speaking of shit odds 400 on Valimaki at +2500. Guy was really slumping for a while but finally showed up last week. Very weak field. South Africans are the top 3 favorites and Dean is the second favorite. What a difference a week makes. Got to fade him this week. Didn't want to miss my chance to cash with valimaki even though I hate the price. Not going to get a weaker field than this

    Iím not shitting you - came here to post Valimaki based on a Conversation I had with someone I trust.

    But since Iím here I guess Iíll bet Ko too.

  10. #29110
    Gold JeffDime's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by JeffDime View Post
    Gonna swallow the chalk and take Lydia ko for 800 at +600. She's played well last two weeks and figures to be right in the mix in this weakfish field. Even at the shit odds I'll take her

    Speaking of shit odds 400 on Valimaki at +2500. Guy was really slumping for a while but finally showed up last week. Very weak field. South Africans are the top 3 favorites and Dean is the second favorite. What a difference a week makes. Got to fade him this week. Didn't want to miss my chance to cash with valimaki even though I hate the price. Not going to get a weaker field than this

    Iím not shitting you - came here to post Valimaki based on a Conversation I had with someone I trust.

    But since Iím here I guess Iíll bet Ko too.
    LFG...now the price is making more sense. I heard the Valimaki at this joint is delicious. I may have to order another.

     
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      Sanlmar: Consider a summary of players wagered on. It get confusing to follow the action.

  11. #29111
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Provided no OT, this Sac under is a loccccccccccccccccccckkkkkkkkkkkk

    That will be my 3rd win in a row, so it's nice to be posting Ws after a little slump following my hot streak.

  12. #29112
    How often do double-digit NBA favs cover in OT? Because the Suns just covered 12.5 in OT...

  13. #29113
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    Quote Originally Posted by Peter Binklage View Post
    How often do double-digit NBA favs cover in OT? Because the Suns just covered 12.5 in OT...
    Pretty amazing. I'm sure those with the dog spread were coutning their money already when it went to OT. Talk about a bad beat.

  14. #29114
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    As I mentioned, I've been in an NBA slump until yesterday.

    From March 21 - April 18, I went 38-17, and was almost 10 units up for the season. This followed a bad run right after the All Star break.

    Then I entered a 7-15 slump from 4/22-5/1, but won my last 3. Not quite as bad as it looks, because I did barely miss some big underdogs (one over +400) hitting.

    Still in the black, but not by that much.

    Here's the record:

    Through 4/18: 112-102-3 (+9.96 units)

    All wins below were spread/total, counted as -110

    4/19: 1-2
    4/20: 1-0
    4/21: 2-2
    4/22: 0-2
    4/23: 1-1
    4/24: 1-2
    4/25: 0-3
    4/26: 2-0
    4/27: 0-1
    4/28: 2-2
    4/29: 0-1
    4/30: 1-2
    5/01: 0-1
    5/03: 2-0
    5/04: 1-0

    Total 4/19-5/4: 14-19 (-6.27 units)

    Grand total: 126-121-3 (+3.69 units)

     
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      JeffDime: Very Impressive

  15. #29115
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    In MLB the picture is brighter thus far. I've been conservative with the picks, making none for the past 4 days because I didn't like any.

    I'm about 7 units up after 41 picks, which is very good. Still early, obviously.

    Here's my record. Oddly, on all days I made picks since 4/21, I won exactly one game each time.

    Previous record through 4/20: 15-12 (+5.717 units)

    4/21: 1-1 (-0.010)
    4/22: 1-0 (+1.030)
    4/23: 1-2 (-1.123)
    4/24: 1-0 (+0.752)
    4/26: 1-0 (+0.935)
    4/27: 1-0 (+0.893)
    4/29: 1-1 (-0.020)
    4/30: 1-2 (-1.206)
    No picks 5/1-5/4

    TOTAL 4/21-5/4: 8-6 (+1.251 units)

    GRAND TOTAL: 23-18 (+6.968 units)

     
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      Sanlmar: You will do very well in MLB especially early

  16. #29116
    I had a near death experience with a big bet on Dodgers Bauer vs Cubs Hendricks yesterday. Thank god for the rainout.

  17. #29117
    basically parlay niemann KO & valimaki and become a gazillionaire..........

  18. #29118
    Gold JeffDime's Avatar
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    No problem Sanimar,

    PGA- Niemann +3300 (Daly Pick).

    *I bet Rahm as well because I got +1300 on him and couldnít pass it up. He is +1100 or +1000 most places and I wouldnít of taken that price. Was a bad line on the Ceaserís Jersey App and I had to jump on it.

    LPGA- Lydia Ko +600.

    European Tour- Sami Valimaki +2500 (Daly/Myself fell on the same guy without knowing it).

     
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      Sanlmar: I’m gonna start following this conversation and tail some.

  19. #29119
    Gold JeffDime's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rollinx420 View Post
    basically parlay niemann KO & valimaki and become a gazillionaire..........

    In all seriousness, golf outright bets and even taking big time shots like this is a great use of a smallish free bet. These Jersey Apps have these little promos all the time and a $25 free bet is a great time to take a shot. Whether that be a Golf Outright or even a ridiculously -EV parlay with a nice payout. The equity in a free bet is really half. I don’t see much use in betting a $25 free bet on a straight wager and hope to turn it into $22.50.

    The bigger the free bet, imho the best use of it is in a good outright or future bets. Really good to not have to stake anything and hit something nice.

    Of course, this is all different depending where you are and many sites restrict the free bet so you are kind of forced to use it to possibly turn it into crumbs. When the apps first starting appearing in Vegas they didn’t offer many promos for the most part. Out in Jersey they do pretty often. I guess it’s a combo of it’s still being newer and in Vegas guys are going to bet anyways. They are really designed to get those endorphins going and then people end up piling and taking a bath. Same theory behind free play at the slots.

    But if the rules allow and done correctly, freebets/Promos can save you a little bit of your bankroll and gives you a chance to fire a parlay or outright that you normally wouldn’t.

  20. #29120
    Still learning a lot about hockey handicapping.

    It is now revealed why I like wagering hockey so much. NHL favorites have cashed 500-298 for 63%. +23 units

    I like flipping those kinda coins. Nice racket.
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 05-05-2021 at 09:37 AM.

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