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Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #28861
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Anyway, I won my sole baseball pick today (+128) and went 2-1 with my NBA picks, losing only the Miami under. None of the NBA picks were close.

    Pretty good.

  2. #28862
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Went through the baseball games today, only one game jumps out at me:

    Miami (P. Lopez) +106 vs. St. Louis (Flaherty)

    Miami has been a disaster thus far, and is a far cry from the surprising squad last year. They've won just 1 game, and their offense has been super flat.

    With that said, I like them today, mainly because of the pitching matchup. Flaherty has lost velocity and might be experiencing dead arm issues. He got walloped for 6 runs in 4 innings against the Reds, and he didn't look particularly good in spring training, either -- with velocity down in all games compared to last year. (It should also be noted that he wasn't very good last year, either.)

    Pablo Lopez looked sharp in the spring, and even added a breaking ball for this season. Dude's stock is on its way up. He fired 5 strong innings against the Rays in his first outing.

    Look for the Marlins to salvage one in this 3-game series, after dropping the first 2 at home.

  3. #28863
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    NBA

    Denver vs. San Antonio - Under 222

  4. #28864
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Okay, one more MLB.

    Another one with two pitchers going opposite directions.

    Milwaukee (Woodruff) -104 at Cubs (Hendricks)

    The wind will be blowing out 12mph at Wrigley today, but both pitchers are about equally prone to the longball, so that's not really a huge factor. However, Woodruff is throwing harder than ever this year, and while his numbers were only okayish in the spring, and he got hit somewhat hard by the Twins in his first start, he still was throwing well and looking good. I expect him to turn it around soon.

    Kyle Hendricks, who got hammered in his first start, is seeing decreased velocity this year, and also pitched poorly in the spring.

    The Brewers have the edge in this one.

  5. #28865
    I went fairly big on Dodgers -150 overnight. Itís up to -170 now and should go higher. Iím not sure why the line was so low earlier?
    It's hilarious that we as a society think everyone can be a dr, a lawyer, an engineer. Some people are just fucking stupid. Why can't we just accept that?

  6. #28866
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jsearles22 View Post
    I went fairly big on Dodgers -150 overnight. Itís up to -170 now and should go higher. Iím not sure why the line was so low earlier?
    I only see -150 at around 5:20am PT.

    But yeah line is a lot higher now. You got a good line for sure.

  7. #28867
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Added a general fade of Bryson vs all the big dogs.

    Not counting on a sweep here but like the chance to go 75% vs 25%

  8. #28868
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    I guess the Marlins offense is so bad that even a struggling Flaherty can look like Jacob Degrom.

    They matched zeroes for 6 innings, then the wheels fell off.

    Searles, sorry about the Dodgers. Bullpen is the one weakness, and Roberts was stupid for using Nelson in the 10th. Also it's just damn hard to win in extras as the visitor, thanks to that dumb rule.

    I did win the Brewers pick, so there's that.

  9. #28869
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    One more NBA

    I picked this and moments later, line jumped 1.5. Annoying. Still like it.

    Houston vs. Dallas - Over 225

  10. #28870
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    DJ or submitting Starbucksís application for me. Made my bed. Didnít expect all these close calls and bricks. Glad he didnít get paired with Brooks, as Iím pretty sure Brooks and DJís old lady had a thing. GL everyone.

  11. #28871
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Mediocre day.

    Split it in both sports. Won Brewers, lost Marlins. In NBA, won the Denver under, lost the Houston over. Once again the NBA picks weren't close either way.

    Interestingly, my last 5 NBA picks, where I've gone 3-2, there have been three large margin wins and two large margin losses, with none of them being close. So it looks like I made 3 great picks and 2 horrible ones. Weird.

  12. #28872
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JeffDime View Post
    DJ or submitting Starbucksís application for me. Made my bed. Didnít expect all these close calls and bricks. Glad he didnít get paired with Brooks, as Iím pretty sure Brooks and DJís old lady had a thing. GL everyone.

    And if they did he would probably be ok with it. Mr and Mrs DJ are a very happy open couple, so Iím told.

    Oddly enough the two best strip joint stories I have are with Brooks and DJ. Iím not going into details but Iíll simply say both are very cool and generous people who like to have fun.

     
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  13. #28873
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Well, my Cam Smith +7500 dream is pretty much shattered. Great line, bad result.


  14. #28874
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Here's some more realistic NBA dreams which hopefully won't be shattered:

    Dallas -1.5 vs Milwaukee (Giannis doubtful, Tucker out, Porzingis & Kleiber questionable) (-2 ok)
    Clippers vs. Phoenix - Under 221 (220.5 ok)

  15. #28875
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Well, my Cam Smith +7500 dream is pretty much shattered. Great line, bad result.


    Your 75 to 1 bet is 5 strokes back on Thursday and you're throwing in the towel? Wanna sell me the bet at like 20/1?
    It's hilarious that we as a society think everyone can be a dr, a lawyer, an engineer. Some people are just fucking stupid. Why can't we just accept that?

  16. #28876
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jsearles22 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Well, my Cam Smith +7500 dream is pretty much shattered. Great line, bad result.


    Your 75 to 1 bet is 5 strokes back on Thursday and you're throwing in the towel? Wanna sell me the bet at like 20/1?
    Forgive him for he knows not what he said.

  17. #28877
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Sorry but I'm just pessimistic after this not-so-good start. Not totally dead, and I realize it's +7500, but I was hoping for better.

    And no, I'm not selling it to jsearles as a +2000.

  18. #28878
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Anyway, my Dallas spread pick easily hit.

    The under with Phoenix/Clippers is probably gonna be close. Live has it lined at 217.5 now.

  19. #28879
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    After my 17-4 run, I had a little hiccup going 2-3, but I'm back to a 5-2 run since then, thanks in part to today's 2-0 day.

    That's 24-9 in the NBA since March 21, and many of those wins were by a wide margin. I'm definitely seeing it very well right now.

    Usually I judge my picks by not only how many win, but how many win by wide margins. While I've taken a few wide margin losses as of late, the more important thing is that the wins are easily covering, and that there's also more of them than the losses.

    Obviously this can change any time, but I am feeling good in the NBA right now.

    With baseball I've been inconsistent so far, though I'm up by a little in the early goings.

  20. #28880
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Sorry but I'm just pessimistic after this not-so-good start. Not totally dead, and I realize it's +7500, but I was hoping for better.

    And no, I'm not selling it to jsearles as a +2000.
    If you kvetch about NBA over/unders that ultimately win but don't look like a lock wire-to-wire, you shouldn't bet golf.

     
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