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Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #34501
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    I’m not interested in basketball but if I wanted to tackle it I’d have a Don Best account - if only to know what other people are working off of. Totals usually don’t wander too far from these #’s.

    I’d obv share an account with a crew. It’s not cheap.

    There’s a whole line of thinking involving big spreads and the resulting affect on totals that correlates pretty well. All kinds of metrics but I never synthesized anything into a model that worked.

    I tried it a few years ago. I think I needed to limit my search to a subset of teams somehow. I was betting too many games and it was exhausting. I wasn’t prepared to bet large numbers. Don’t miss basketball for one single second.

    I have no idea what your process was. Mysterious skunkworks I suppose.
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 11-22-2022 at 06:29 PM.

  2. #34502
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Down 9 with 3:54 left, Nevada just ran off 9 straight points to tie in 2.5 minutes, then finally allowed a basket. Down 78-76 with 0:53 remaining.

    Knowing my luck past week, they won't come back and win. This might just be to torture me further.

    Edit: Wow, a three pointer. Now 79-78 with 35s left. Still not optimistic but this would be great to hit.

  3. #34503
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    23s and Nevada has the ball, still 79-78.

    gogogo

  4. #34504
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Awful. Intentional foul, crappy college free throw shooting only sees 1/2 made, and Kansas St makes a basket with 7s left. Nevada can't do anything with that 7s and it goes to OT, where I will probably lose.

  5. #34505
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Yup, complete meltdown in OT. I knew it. Their time to win was in the final seconds of the 2nd half. Epic comeback, epic 3-pointer, and then they just fucked up royally. They had the freaking ball with 14s and the lead and ended up in OT. Now they're down by 6 with 3 minutes left.

    Louisiana game also not going well, and Sac State hasn't started yet. But yeah I could lose the first 4 here, and Bowling Green football game will either go 1-1 or 0-2, depending upon whether the under hits.


  6. #34506
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    @BCR

    Ohio Michigan football under 56?

    I saw 57 yesterday. Was that move a weather play? I kinda like under w/o weather.

    Harbaugh Michigan around thanksgiving is a traditional fade

  7. #34507
    Gold 4BET's Avatar
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    Really shitty lines for Thursday games. Thinking of teaser Det up to 15 1/2 and Dallas down to 4. Really would love to pile big on the chalks Buffalo and Dallas. Just donít know here it seems Buffalo never puts anyone away big. They should have beat GB by 20+ but just didnít pour it on. Dallas played the best game in years who knows if they can pour it on again.
    -Allergic to the struggle

  8. #34508
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    I don't blame you if you don't trust my college picks right now, but I do like this one:

    UC Riverside -1 at Abeline Christian

  9. #34509
    Gold 4BET's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    I don't blame you if you don't trust my college picks right now, but I do like this one:

    UC Riverside -1 at Abeline Christian
    Bet this small, I believe abeline lost yesterday as a decent favorite
    -Allergic to the struggle

  10. #34510
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Florida Gulf Coast -6 vs Missouri KC (Ploppy bet)

  11. #34511
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4BET View Post
    Really shitty lines for Thursday games. Thinking of teaser Det up to 15 1/2 and Dallas down to 4. Really would love to pile big on the chalks Buffalo and Dallas. Just don’t know here it seems Buffalo never puts anyone away big. They should have beat GB by 20+ but just didn’t pour it on. Dallas played the best game in years who knows if they can pour it on again.
    I hadn't even looked at lines til now.

    Buffalo yeah who knows with how they have been playing lately. I would be taking the teaser the other way though, Buffalo -3.5. I think they win but I'm just iffy on the blowout scenario. Detroit fucked me last week. But not confident either way.

    Lets see here....Cowboys -10 coming off an absolute destruction of the Vikes, Giants coming off getting destroyed. I think Dallas is going to be rolling but again 10 pts is just too many I'm teasing this one down to 4 and confident about it.

    Patriots +2.5 vs the Vikes......another very interesting game. It is the "are the Vikings frauds game". They got obliterated by Dallas and looking back at their schedule, they have beat one good team and the rest of the wins are against bad teams. Seems like they can beat bad teams and struggle against the good ones. But am I really confident in Pats with that lucky ass walk off kick return? I'm probably just putting something on Pats moneyline I think it is a toss up. Or teasing the Pats up to 8.5....yeah I actually love that. Great number.

    Early Ravens analysis......again love the under and -4. Lamar is a Florida kid and it really "feels" like he really does not like the cold that much, or hasn't really adjusted to it yet. They are still terrible at WR but the defense is just so good right now (and getting better with injured guys coming back) they won't need much offense to cover. This will be a higher scoring repeat of last week in much better balmy conditions. Ravens 23 Jags 10.

  12. #34512
    Gold 4BET's Avatar
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    Hard for me to trust buffalo here, Gonna stay with Detroit + 15 1/2, Dallas -4 teaser. 10 is not a great number to tease off of but should get the cash.
    -Allergic to the struggle

  13. #34513
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Iím with you NBH. Happy Thanksgiving

    I put zero thought into this +200 parlay and teaser. Just something to help me fight the effects of tryptophan.

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      NaturalBornHustler: let's ride

  14. #34514
    Gold Jayjami's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Florida Gulf Coast -6 vs Missouri KC (Ploppy bet)
    The way youíre running lately, Iíd take Chrissy Mitchellís picks over yours lol.

  15. #34515
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    I was just reviewing my picks and reminding myself who Chiefs were playing and checking on CLV. Oh yeah, the LOL Rams

    I am going out of business soon (legalized wagering) so I’m winding up futures as a policy matter. I hold only two. Democratic Senate and LA Rams and Matt Stafford (Kershaw’s pal) to choke on a dick.

    Looking good Willis

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  16. #34516
    Diamond BCR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    @BCR

    Ohio Michigan football under 56?

    I saw 57 yesterday. Was that move a weather play? I kinda like under w/o weather.

    Harbaugh Michigan around thanksgiving is a traditional fade
    I’d bet under before I bet over. I think Ohio State is fake news. Doesn’t mean they don’t win easily, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

    .Ohio State could win because Michigan’s QB is horrible and they might not be able to simply gash Ohio State for 7 yards per carry all day like last year, but their OL and defense is quite good and they might be able to simply keep the ball away bludgeoning us.


    Iowa had a legit defense, and we put up 54 just through defensive turnovers and team speed. but in general I think Ohio State would get curbstomped by Georgia and lose by 35. I’m negative on CJ Stroud. I think some NFL team is going to deeply regret their high draft pick. Obviously I hope I’m wrong and Ohio State looks great and wins by 31, but I don’t have any useful insight to you. I think Michigan is fake as a true contender as their QB is horrible, while Ohio State is fake on various fronts. Just inconsistent. The wideouts and RB attrition through injury could really show up against Michigan.

    There isn’t a bet I could make where I’d feel comfortable. Michigan played their game last year and it still ended up 47-27 or something like that. Ohio State games tend to get crazy and go much higher than you’d expect on paper. It’s total stay away for me. Neither team has really played anyone. It could be like Ohio State-ND and end up 21-10, yet 45-41 wouldn’t shock me either. I don’t even see any props I like.

     
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      Sanlmar: I never pushed the button… kinda forgot about it and glad I did. Fraud team
    Last edited by BCR; 11-24-2022 at 08:58 AM.

  17. #34517
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Knox first TD +1300

  18. #34518
    Diamond BCR's Avatar
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    Sanlmar: I never pushed the button… kinda forgot about it and glad I did. Fraud team
    Stroud really reminds me of Haskins in the sense the moment he has to move his feet he’s significantly worse. He is a more accurate passer, but I wouldn’t draft him unless I had a superior OL, and most teams drafting high don’t have that or they wouldn’t be drafting high.

    The books have the futures exactly right imo, I watch a ton of CFB, and everyone is a fraud outside Georgia. Ohio State could lose to Georgia, LSU, and even an Arkansas type team on the wrong day. Michigan is most similar to LSU and Arkansas, so they could get Ohio State. I actually think LSU is probably better than Michigan atm. I hate the SEC, so it pains me to say it.

    I actually think Georgia -165 is value. The biggest threat is like an LSU sneaking into the playoff and beating them. No one from any other conference can stay within 10. Ohio State is a fraud team, but they’d beat a USC or Clemson still because they’re closer to balanced than those teams. USC can score 50, but give up 47. Clemson offense is fake.

    Just a bad year where there are a lot of frauds. If one of those SEC teams don’t sneak into the playoff in the 4 spot, I’d feel comfortable laying -165 on Georgia without an issue and will. They’ll make easy work of Ohio State, TCU, Michigan, and anyone else not in the SEC. I actually think they’ll lay 13.5 to anyone ranked in top 4 right now.

  19. #34519
    Gold 4BET's Avatar
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    I told you wankers bills canít be trusted, Regardless if they win or lose they are 10 point favorites fighting for their life just to win
    -Allergic to the struggle

  20. #34520
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4BET View Post
    I told you wankers bills can’t be trusted, Regardless if they win or lose they are 10 point favorites fighting for their life just to win
    Really thought this could be a bounceback game for them to get back on track. But they clearly are not right. After the safety I was like here we go....and shit. Just give me a TD or nothing here and I will be happy. They will cover with the TD and it helps my team bigly if they lose outright. I will defer to you on teaser picks just listen to me on the Ravens lol.

    This one is yet another example that playing a Thursday game as the road team is such a massive disadvantage. It is crazy the stats on it.

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