*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[Gookieheimowitz]

Yeah it was no outs. Forgot that the first strikeout happened with the bases already loaded.

This whole pick has had the marginal feel to it. I've had very few outright bad under picks (where they just get blown out of the water early). I've had a few close ones lose in late innings, and other close ones hold on to win in late innings. Those I deem "mediocre" picks -- ones where I win or lose due to luck, not really due to the pick being particularly good or bad. That's where I place this one. I've also had a number of very good unders (which seem to be headed to cover the entire way).

These are the type I'm not particularly proud to win, but I'll take 'em if they hold.

It's a much better feeling when I pick an under 8 and the game finishes 1-0, and it feels like the win was mostly due to skill. Kinda like all those early-season NBA unders where I was routinely covering by 20-30 points. When the middle and later season came and my winners were barely pulling it out by a few points, I knew things were different. Not only was I losing a lot more, but my winners were rarely convincing.

As I've said, the handicapper's skill is more defined by how he wins rather than if he wins.

Right now, if you examine my baseball picks (especially the unders), you'll see that I'm almost never getting blown out. That's a good sign.

Yep as stated earlier you are dialed in on the Unders . I am going to need the worst team in baseball to hold on to have a good day.

[YUUP]

Yeah it was no outs. Forgot that the first strikeout happened with the bases already loaded.

This whole pick has had the marginal feel to it. I've had very few outright bad under picks (where they just get blown out of the water early). I've had a few close ones lose in late innings, and other close ones hold on to win in late innings. Those I deem "mediocre" picks -- ones where I win or lose due to luck, not really due to the pick being particularly good or bad. That's where I place this one. I've also had a number of very good unders (which seem to be headed to cover the entire way).

These are the type I'm not particularly proud to win, but I'll take 'em if they hold.

It's a much better feeling when I pick an under 8 and the game finishes 1-0, and it feels like the win was mostly due to skill. Kinda like all those early-season NBA unders where I was routinely covering by 20-30 points. When the middle and later season came and my winners were barely pulling it out by a few points, I knew things were different. Not only was I losing a lot more, but my winners were rarely convincing.

As I've said, the handicapper's skill is more defined by how he wins rather than if he wins.

Right now, if you examine my baseball picks (especially the unders), you'll see that I'm almost never getting blown out. That's a good sign.

Yep as stated earlier you are dialed in on the Unders . I am going to need the worst team in baseball to hold on to have a good day.

Bet with me, I’m on a 27 year losing run. Your luck will change .

[hongkonger]

Pacers are favoured by 1.5 against Cleveland, starting in 15 min. My heart says the Pacers will win, but my brain says bet on Cleveland +1.5.

[BCR]

Cavs +1

[Dan Druff]

Split 'em yesterday. Both were close. Was lucky to hold on with the Yankees game, and was unlucky to lose in the 9th with Boston, but honestly both were close the whole way, so 1-1 was an appropriate record.

Here's what I've got today:

Washington (Scherzer) at Dodgers (Kershaw) - Under 6 -117
Miami (Richards) at Milwaukee (Chacin) - Under 9 -115
Miami (Richards) +146 at Milwaukee (Chacin)

The main reason for both Miami picks: Trevor Richards killed it during his minor league career. However, he had never pitched above AA prior to this year. Predictably, he got hammered hard in his first 2 starts, though one was against Boston, who has a very tough lineup. Last time out, against a more moderate Pittsburgh lineup, he looked like the pitcher he was supposed to be. I think this could be the beginning of a run of value dog bets on him, at least against lineups which haven't been hot. I even grabbed him at my fantasy draft.

Scherzer/Kershaw speaks for itself, and all signs point to a real pitcher's duel, especially in Dodger Stadium on a cool night.

FYI the Dodgers under is very public, while we are very much going against the public with both Miami bets. Sharps appear to especially like the Miami +146.

[Sanlmar]

I am inspired by Druff’s post

I looked a little more into Miami & Mil. and it holds up. I was gonna take the under too and boom, Druff had it too

Miami (Richards) at Milwaukee (Chacin) - Under 9 -115
Miami (Richards) +146 at Milwaukee (Chacin)

I like Nationals + 132 Just a value play in a pick em proposition

Sawks over 9.
Sawks Pomeranz is awful and the Sawks offense is playing out of their minds. It isn’t sustainable but you autobet streaks like this

[Dan Druff]

Sorry Sanlmar.

Richards is back to first-two-starts form.

He's super lucky to have gotten out of the 1st with 1 run.

[Sanlmar]

Sorry Sanlmar.

Richards is back to first-two-starts form.

He's super lucky to have gotten out of the 1st with 1 run.

50 pitch 1st was lol.

I did the work and knew what I was getting into. No regrets

[Dan Druff]

Part of reason for the under was also the lolbad Marlins offense.

So we can still split even if Marlins fall behind 5-0 or whatever.

[hongkonger]

Pacers are favoured by 1.5 against Cleveland, starting in 15 min. My heart says the Pacers will win, but my brain says bet on Cleveland +1.5.

Happy to be wrong here!

GO PACERS

[Dan Druff]

Part of reason for the under was also the lolbad Marlins offense.

So we can still split even if Marlins fall behind 5-0 or whatever.

Boy did I call this or what

[Dan Druff]

Well I think I'm going to lay off Marlins moneyline bets in the future.

They are beyond bad.

Richards was disappointing.

Guess he's not ready for MLB after all.

Hoping for a split.

[Dan Druff]

Ugh, down 8-0 in the 9th abs Marlins load the bases.

Please let's see a DP

[Sanlmar]

Maybin check swing for strike on ball 4 bases loaded. Who loves ya?

Now let’s collect Nationals and Sawks $

[Dan Druff]

Congrats Sanlmar, we split by the skin of our teeth.

Now I'm actually going to root against the Dodgers coming back so my under 6 covers.

[Sanlmar]

Sawks over 9 is over in 6th

Smooth. Autobet autobet.

On a side note. Nationals taking a page from Sawks aggressive offensive approach against Kershaw. Threw Clayton off a little bit. To his credit he adjusted

Kershaw only 85 pitches after 7 tells the tale. Hitters are attacking him from first pitch.

Kershaw will see this more often going forward

Scherzer is a snarling animal. Now I sweat the shit for bullpen

[Dan Druff]

So that'a 4 consecutive unders decided by the late innings after being close the whole way -- and I'm 2-2 in those.

Record as of 4/18
SEASON TOTAL: 19-11-2, +8.163 UNITS

4/19:
Toronto (Aaron Sanchez) at NY Yankees (Sabathia) - Under 9 -113 - WON +0.885
Boston (E. Rodriguez) at Angels (Tropeano) - Under 8.5 -115 - LOST -1
TOTAL 4/19: 1-1. -0.115

4/20:
Washington (Scherzer) at Dodgers (Kershaw) - Under 6 -117 - LOST -1
Miami (Richards) at Milwaukee (Chacin) - Under 9 -115 - WON +0.870
Miami (Richards) +146 at Milwaukee (Chacin) - LOST -1
TOTAL 4/20: 1-2, -1.130

SEASON TOTAL: 21-14, +6.918 UNITS

Overs 0-1
Unders 14-6-2
Sides 7-7

[Sanlmar]

Sawks offense is playing unconscious. No team is that good but you autobet these streaks until it runs out of gas then you abandon it on the freeway.

Daly taught us that.

Sawks Sale v A’s Manaea. Two aces who are dealing with the stats to prove it.

The Sawks & Sale are a little too public - the ML is dumb

The 7 total feels really right - I’d lean under if anything - but that is a flat out retarded approach to such a smoking hot phenomenon

How to bet the offense? Run line -105. I saw it last night at even and this is where I draw the “run” line. The Sawks average margin of victory leads the MLB at 3.7 so whynot. I have snoozed on this fact and lost value. It was well established many games ago. Hatin’ Sawks penalty flag on me.

Gotta have action b/c to miss even a game is bad wagering conduct.

If I have presented my case successfully I will have caused Druff’s under betting bowels to be distressed.

The other games can wait.

[Daly]

Did someone say Chalk Parlay?


Apr 21
02:15 PM PARLAY (4 TEAMS)
[MLB] [952] STL CARDINALS -240
( ACTION )
PENDING
STL 952
St. Louis Cardinals
951 CIN
Cincinnati Reds
-
21 April 2018 2:15 pm

Apr 21
04:05 PM [MLB] [954] PHI PHILLIES -180
( ACTION )
PENDING
PHI 954
Philadelphia Phillies
953 PIT
Pittsburgh Pirates
-
21 April 2018 4:05 pm

Apr 21
04:05 PM [MLB] [969] CLE INDIANS -200
( ACTION )
PENDING
BAL 970
Baltimore Orioles
969 CLE
Cleveland Indians
-
21 April 2018 4:05 pm

Apr 21
08:05 PM [MLB] [975] SEA MARINERS -170
( ACTION )
PENDING
TEX 976
Texas Rangers
975 SEA
Seattle Mariners
-
21 April 2018 8:05 pm

[Dan Druff]

Not seeing anything in baseball I like, at least not in the games starting before 3pm.

Let's give a shot to the NBA again:

Philadelphia/Miami - Under 213