Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #33281
    Gold
    Reputation
    308
    Join Date
    Sep 2020
    Posts
    1,741
    Load Metric
    65689960
    I had a big bet on KC -4. Chargers just backdoored completing twice on 4th down on final drive, including once where they maybe should have kicked the FG (I honestly am not sure how the math works on that last play). I feel physically sick. This is like the 4th time this year already I have lost like this.

     
    Comments
      
      Tellafriend: I’m a fan
    Last edited by Kalam; 09-15-2022 at 07:17 PM.

  2. #33282
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
    Reputation
    4291
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    21,090
    Load Metric
    65689960
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    But I will say that I love Sanlmar's thought process on many of his bets, so it hurts me to see him talk about teasers.
    Let’s see if we can go 2 for 2

    3 team teaser +147

    Pittsburgh Steelers +8
    Minnesota Vikings +8
    Cincinnati Bengals -1

    I love them individually but football is football. We shall see

    I took Cubs -125 v Pirates in the 2:20pm afternoon game. I had them higher than -125. It’s a bum fight and I’m not proud. Just a value play and action on a slow day. I really need to stop baseball til playoffs.

  3. #33283
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
    Reputation
    10110
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    54,627
    Blog Entries
    2
    Load Metric
    65689960
    You mean Cubs vs Rockies, right?

    Rockies do suck on the road. Marquez is back to his usual pattern, though, where he's good on the road, and awful at Coors. They really should just ship him out.

    ER last home games for him: 9, 6, 2, 4, 1
    ER last road games for him: 2, 0, 3, 2

    So that's 4 strong starts on the road, with one of them being against the Mets, allowing just 1 hit.

    I don't know... I have mixed feelings about this one. I will admit I considered Cubs, too.

    I'm eyeing Texas and Martin Perez at the moment.

  4. #33284
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
    Reputation
    10110
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    54,627
    Blog Entries
    2
    Load Metric
    65689960
    You know what?

    I'm gonna hit Texas. Martin Perez is really good as long as he's not facing the Astros. In his last 10 starts, he allowed 1 ER six times, 0 ER once, 2 ER twice, and 5+ ER twice. Those two bad starts were against Houston. Otherwise 7 of his 8 past starts had 6-7 IP with 1 ER.

    He faces Kluber who got destroyed by the Yankees last time out, but also pitched very well against them the previous time.

    I think I'm gonna first-5 it. I don't trust the Rangers bullpen, especially when they have nothing to play for (and Tampa does).

    Texas (Martin Perez) +120 at Tampa (Kluber) -- FIRST 5 INNINGS

  5. #33285
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
    Reputation
    4291
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    21,090
    Load Metric
    65689960
    Is that a malaprop, Druff? Yes Cubs over Rockies.

    I love the Texas idea. A morsel of goodness hidden in the F5. I wanna make it my own tho. Allegedly a low scoring game so I’m going to take

    Texas Rangers +½ -120 for 1st 5 Innings


    I took Red Sox on RL but I got +100 in the early AM. Just an idea. Home team though and I don’t really like as much RL -113 but Royals Heasley is soooo bad.

    Cooler nights so let’s be cautious with totals as seasons change


    There are sightings of Dodgers injured pitchers with baseballs in their hands. Hmmm

  6. #33286
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
    Reputation
    4291
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    21,090
    Load Metric
    65689960
    Spin rates are back near the 2020 peak and the weather is cooling. If you wanna offer some unders I’m all ears.

    I just don’t have a process for that.

  7. #33287
    Nova Scotia's #1 Party Rocker!!!!11 DJ_Chaps's Avatar
    Reputation
    939
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Halifax
    Posts
    6,604
    Load Metric
    65689960
    1. ACCUMULATOR (4) (lil freebie from stars, bet a 3 teamer, get same $bet as freebie for another 3+ teamer)

    Colorado Rockies @ +105
    Money Line

    Lots of bats out for Cubs, may not matter, but meh

    Colorado Rockies @ Chicago Cubs
    0-1
    Miami Marlins -1.0 @ -105
    Run Line (Incl. Extra Innings)

    Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals
    20:05 ADT
    Toronto Blue Jays -1 @ -133
    Run Line (Incl. Extra Innings)

    Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays
    20:07 ADT
    New York Yankees -1.0 @ +105
    Run Line (Incl. Extra Innings)

    New York Yankees @ Milwaukee Brewers
    21:10 ADT



    2. TREBLE

    Miami Marlins -1.0 @ +100
    Run Line (Incl. Extra Innings)

    Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals
    20:05 ADT

    Boston Red Sox -1.5 @ -105
    Run Line (Incl. Extra Innings)

    Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox
    20:10 ADT

    Chicago White Sox -1.0 @ -138
    Run Line (Incl. Extra Innings)

    Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers
    20:10 ADT



    3. ACCUMULATOR (4)


    Over 52.5 @ -110
    Total Points

    Texas State Bobcats @ Baylor Bears
    17 Sep, 13:00 ADT

    Oklahoma -11.0 @ -110
    Spread

    Oklahoma Sooners @ Nebraska Cornhuskers
    17 Sep, 13:00 ADT

    Syracuse -1.5 @ -110
    Spread

    Purdue Boilermakers @ Syracuse Orange
    17 Sep, 13:00 ADT

    Tulane +14.0 @ -110
    Spread

    Tulane Green Wave @ Kansas State Wildcats
    17 Sep, 16:00 ADT




    4. ACCUMULATOR (4)


    Cleveland Browns -6.5 @ -118
    Spread (Incl. OT)

    New York Jets @ Cleveland Browns
    18 Sep, 14:00 ADT

    Washington Commanders @ +100
    Money Line (Incl. OT)

    Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions
    18 Sep, 14:00 ADT

    Indianapolis Colts -3.5 @ -118
    Spread (Incl. OT)

    Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
    18 Sep, 14:00 ADT

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 @ -118
    Spread (Incl. OT)

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints
    18 Sep, 14:00 ADT
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Chaps' 2017-18 NFL $$ Thread

  8. #33288
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
    Reputation
    10110
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    54,627
    Blog Entries
    2
    Load Metric
    65689960
    Detroit (Manning) +125 vs White Sox (Giolito) - First 5 innings

  9. #33289
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
    Reputation
    10110
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    54,627
    Blog Entries
    2
    Load Metric
    65689960
    Hit 'em both. Turned out I didn't need to do first 5. I could have done full game and won both, and won a bit more money. But I stand by it.

    Texas squeaked by by 1 run, and Detroit was tied in the late innings. Both could have lost, but won more easily first-5. The first-5 bet also gives you the tie possibility, which is nice to have when you're betting the dog. I did see San did +0.5 to prevent that tie from occurring.

    I do like San's theory to bet first 5 when you're firing on bad teams. I think he's onto something. This is especially valuable in the era when pitchers usually go 5-7 innings, even if throwing well. Sucks having to count on bad teams out of contention, with fail bullpens, to hold a small lead, just because you backed a strong starting pitcher. I was doing these bets last year, but got away from it this year, and I had a lot of late game losses. Too bad there's not more left in the season, but I'll be utilizing it more for the last weeks here.

     
    Comments
      
      Sanlmar: Texas

  10. #33290
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
    Reputation
    4291
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    21,090
    Load Metric
    65689960
    Bringing down our average with a 2-1. The baseball picks have been running crazy good.

    Your Texas idea saved the day, Druff. In fact, you were more profitable than me. Betting a bum home team (Sawks) on the RL broke every convention of civilized wagering. I am better than that



    Chicago Cubs -125 ✅

    Texas Rangers +½ -120 for 1st 5 ✅

    Boston Red Sox -1½ +100 ❌

  11. #33291
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
    Reputation
    10110
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    54,627
    Blog Entries
    2
    Load Metric
    65689960
    How about betting against a bum team... with an even worse team?

    Double pick involving the KC/BOS game.

    Kansas City (Singer) +105 at Boston (Hill) - First 5 innings
    KC/Boston - Under 8.5 -105

  12. #33292
    Gold
    Reputation
    308
    Join Date
    Sep 2020
    Posts
    1,741
    Load Metric
    65689960
    Had Purdue. they score to go up 4 with about 1:30 left. Of course they should have been up 10 except for LOL kicking, but I digress.

    Syracuse marches down the field in a drive where they didn't get a single yard except for penalties until the last play. 50 yards in penalties. 2 dead ball personal fouls (they never actually explained or showed what happened, we just had to take their word for it I guess), 1 PI and 1 defensive holding. Then with 7 seconds left they score the winning TD on a 30 yard pass to the end zone. Dude was wide open too. I guess it never occurred to the Purdue defense the team down 4 would go for the end zone with 14 seconds left in the game.

    LOL. LOL. LOL.

  13. #33293
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
    Reputation
    4291
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    21,090
    Load Metric
    65689960
    Betting football is more fun than making money on bad baseball. I understand.

    I just realized Rich Hill is an old friend of yours Druff.


    The Dodgers still have their foot buried in the throttle. Respect - can’t lie. Full lineup.
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 09-17-2022 at 01:29 PM.

  14. #33294
    Gold
    Reputation
    308
    Join Date
    Sep 2020
    Posts
    1,741
    Load Metric
    65689960
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Betting football is more fun than making money on bad baseball. I understand.

    I just realized Rich Hill is an old friend of yours Druff.


    The Dodgers still have their foot buried in the throttle. Respect - can’t lie. Full lineup.
    They had a lot of injuries and their scrubs had a lot of run in the middle of the season. So I guess Roberts wants the A team to get some reps together. Klay Thompson's little brother actually played pretty good. Had some clutch hits. Not sure why he seems to be buried behind the corpses of Gallo and Bellinger right now. Maybe defense.

  15. #33295
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
    Reputation
    4291
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    21,090
    Load Metric
    65689960
    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Betting football is more fun than making money on bad baseball. I understand.

    I just realized Rich Hill is an old friend of yours Druff.


    The Dodgers still have their foot buried in the throttle. Respect - can’t lie. Full lineup.
    They had a lot of injuries and their scrubs had a lot of run in the middle of the season. So I guess Roberts wants the A team to get some reps together. Klay Thompson's little brother actually played pretty good. Had some clutch hits. Not sure why he seems to be buried behind the corpses of Gallo and Bellinger right now. Maybe defense.
    Stubborn Bellinger will be smoking weed come playoffs. I want to collect the check mark on the subject of Bellinger as a hater from day one but he had 2 tremendous years. He looks dumb and he is dumb and un-coachable not because of attitude but b/c he’s stupid. I’m offering you boys a draw on the subject of Bellinger. You should take it.

    Free up that Belly money for Trea Turner

    That idiot is out of the lineup tonight and I’m cooking up a little parlay stew that I’m not proud of but greed.
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 09-17-2022 at 02:15 PM.

  16. #33296
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
    Reputation
    4291
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    21,090
    Load Metric
    65689960
    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Betting football is more fun than making money on bad baseball. I understand.

    I just realized Rich Hill is an old friend of yours Druff.


    The Dodgers still have their foot buried in the throttle. Respect - can’t lie. Full lineup.
    They had a lot of injuries and their scrubs had a lot of run in the middle of the season. So I guess Roberts wants the A team to get some reps together. Klay Thompson's little brother actually played pretty good. Had some clutch hits. Not sure why he seems to be buried behind the corpses of Gallo and Bellinger right now. Maybe defense.
    That sentence puzzled me. What scrubs got playing time and who in the lineup was injured? Gonna let you in on a secret: only the top 3 in the order matter. The rest are utility grade bolt ons. The power trio is so superlative and historic that might be enough. I would rest them but I’m not a Dodger quant.

    I do give the Dodgers sincere respect for coming to play when it hasn’t mattered for quite a while. I really can’t think of any similar paradigm short of the 2007/8 Patriots - that was driven by hate which is more fun. Dodgers +320 run differential. The Patriots ran up the score every game of that undefeated season. Belichick was all pissed off that year. Good times.

    2007 Patriots and 2022 Dodgers same sad outcome come to think of it. Both were perennial champs in rubbish divisions. I could do quite a riff. I never thought to compare the two cause… Patriots have lots of rings and Dodgers have none …. Maybe that’s why.

    I have to issue Dave Roberts a pardon. He has kept these guys playing hard. That’s coaching. Roberts will exercise the pardon come playoffs. That’s fine

    Speaking of which, Brady and Giselle are split. Is that exploitable? The press gonna come hard
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 09-17-2022 at 02:23 PM.

  17. #33297
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
    Reputation
    4291
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    21,090
    Load Metric
    65689960
    The old, married Mormans getting their ass kicked. That was the only game I felt connected to. I played BYU last week and was traumatized by the kicker.

    Funny team.

    Win or lose the BYU players will go home and bathe the kids and the wife will have supper ready for them

    Do Mormans get paid like other college athletes? By whom? Diaper companies?
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 09-17-2022 at 02:25 PM.

  18. #33298
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
    Reputation
    4291
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    21,090
    Load Metric
    65689960
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    How about betting against a bum team... with an even worse team?

    Double pick involving the KC/BOS game.

    Kansas City (Singer) +105 at Boston (Hill) - First 5 innings ✅
    KC/Boston - Under 8.5 -105 ❌
    Boston reliever Tyler “Cheese” Danish. That bullpen is a blight on the game.


    You still eked out pizza money anyway Druff. Great wagering regardless of outcome.

  19. #33299
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
    Reputation
    10110
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    54,627
    Blog Entries
    2
    Load Metric
    65689960
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Stubborn Bellinger will be smoking weed come playoffs. I want to collect the check mark on the subject of Bellinger as a hater from day one but he had 2 tremendous years. He looks dumb and he is dumb and un-coachable not because of attitude but b/c he’s stupid. I’m offering you boys a draw on the subject of Bellinger. You should take it.

    Free up that Belly money for Trea Turner

    That idiot is out of the lineup tonight and I’m cooking up a little parlay stew that I’m not proud of but greed.


    Gonna let you in on a secret: only the top 3 in the order matter. The rest are utility grade bolt ons. The power trio is so superlative and historic that might be enough. I would rest them but I’m not a Dodger quant.

    I do give the Dodgers sincere respect for coming to play when it hasn’t mattered for quite a while. I really can’t think of any similar paradigm short of the 2007/8 Patriots - that was driven by hate which is more fun. Dodgers +320 run differential. The Patriots ran up the score every game of that undefeated season. Belichick was all pissed off that year. Good times.

    2007 Patriots and 2022 Dodgers same sad outcome come to think of it. Both were perennial champs in rubbish divisions. I could do quite a riff. I never thought to compare the two cause… Patriots have lots of rings and Dodgers have none …. Maybe that’s why.

    I have to issue Dave Roberts a pardon. He has kept these guys playing hard. That’s coaching. Roberts will exercise the pardon come playoffs. That’s fine

    Speaking of which, Brady and Giselle are split. Is that exploitable? The press gonna come hard
    I will say that the you gotta have some depth beyond the top 3, or otherwise it's a shit team. Look at the Angels. The Yankees also have a pretty bad team after LeMahieu/Judge/Stanton/Rizzo, and right now they're missing LeMahieu.

    The Dodgers offense is great this year because they have guys capable of having good games in the 5-8 spots, even if the 1-4 bunch doesn't have a good game. When Max Muncy and Justin Turner (both improving a lot as of late) are your side contributors, you're in great shape.

    The bullpen is the glaring hole on this team. Can you count on anyone there against a good lineup in the playoffs? Do the Dodgers have any reliever even as good as Mets setup guy Adam Ottavino? The answer is NO. (On a side note, the Mets pulled off a great signing with Ottavino, grabbing him for just $4.4m after he had two pretty bad years with the Yankees and Sawks. The trick to Ottavino is to know that all of his years are either excellent or bad, with little in between. There's more good than bad. You grab him for single years at low money, and you've potentially got a huge bargain.)

  20. #33300
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
    Reputation
    10110
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    54,627
    Blog Entries
    2
    Load Metric
    65689960
    Who expected the shit Royals to come with 6 runs between the 5th and 6th innings?

    I did not. I envisioned an affair where Singer (who is actually decent) was going to slightly outpitch old man Rich Hill for 5 innings, and then the rest of the game would plod along with relatively little action.

    For 4 innings, I got that, as it was 2-0 Royals. Then Hill gave up 2 more in the 5th, and German just got destroyed in the 6th. Oh well. Missed that under by 0.5.

    I thought I was going to get 'em both after the first 4 innings were in the books.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 8 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 8 guests)

Similar Threads

  1. Offers of thought on this one needed.
    By son of lockman in forum Flying Stupidity
    Replies: 17
    Last Post: 09-20-2013, 03:54 PM
  2. Sportsbook suggestions
    By Walter Sobchak in forum Flying Stupidity
    Replies: 4
    Last Post: 02-02-2013, 10:04 AM
  3. negotiating compensation from job offers
    By mulva in forum Flying Stupidity
    Replies: 5
    Last Post: 11-12-2012, 08:17 PM
  4. Best Sportsbook on the strip ?
    By FrenchJew in forum Poker Community Discussion
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 06-09-2012, 10:50 AM
  5. Vwls-Props for doing radio and making it interesting!
    By Pokehermaniac in forum Flying Stupidity
    Replies: 9
    Last Post: 06-01-2012, 07:36 PM

Tags for this Thread