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Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #18081
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Took a buzzer beater to stop yet another OT disaster.

    Winner!

    Up to 20-16-1

  2. #18082
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Another OT danger
    Can you run some math on the merit of buying the OT prop on your selections?

    What does the number have to be +500?

    You may have something here.

  3. #18083
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    I did an interesting teaser that I got from a sports betting podcast that is theoretically borderline +EV. Basically I took both favorites (which were both -3, but with extra juice) and did a 6.5 point teaser and teased them to +3.5.

    According to the podcast, if they were normal 3 point favorites that got teased to +3.5 this would be minorly -EV. However, both favorites are actually inbetween -3 and -3.5, and some books even have one or both favorites at -3.5, and the teaser odds dont reflect this. The juice you are paying is as if they were normal -3 lines, making this a borderline +EV play.

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  5. #18085
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    I did an interesting teaser that I got from a sports betting podcast that is theoretically borderline +EV. Basically I took both favorites (which were both -3, but with extra juice) and did a 6.5 point teaser and teased them to +3.5.

    According to the podcast, if they were normal 3 point favorites that got teased to +3.5 this would be minorly -EV. However, both favorites are actually inbetween -3 and -3.5, and some books even have one or both favorites at -3.5, and the teaser odds dont reflect this. The juice you are paying is as if they were normal -3 lines, making this a borderline +EV play.
    Haven’t seen any books hanging -3.5 on KC.....

    I’m old school though, in my world you never cross zero. You are basically throwing away 1 to zero and zero to 1 so 2+ points of value..... but you are getting to the other side of the very key number of 3 in this scenario.

     
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      KidPresentable: Never cross zero

  6. #18086
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    I’m told the game/result the books fear the most is a Rams cover. Probably be pulling for KC too.

    Very very strange to have back to back weekends where the public is pulling for the Dogs.

  7. #18087
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Best ufc guy I know said Cejudo at +180 is absolute thievery. wrong guy favored.

     
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      Dan Druff: on it... ty either way
      
      rollinx420: +190 on sportsbook

  8. #18088
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Can you run some math on the merit of buying the OT prop on your selections?

    What does the number have to be +500?

    You may have something here.
    Here's a reference: https://rotogrinders.com/articles/ba...ertime-1710010

    6.3% games in the seasons 2014-15 through 2016-17 went to over time, according to the above article.

    It is more likely a game will go to OT if the spread is low (the teams are closely matched), and slightly more likely if the total is low (since scoring is less frequent). You would need something like +1500 to justify an OT bet before the typical game, and you're not going to get that.

    However, given that I'm an OT magnet for whatever reason, maybe it wouldn't be the worst bet to start firing on OT before my under picks. Part of me wants to do it live when the game is close, just to keep my sanity.

  9. #18089
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Haven’t seen any books hanging -3.5 on KC.....

    I’m old school though, in my world you never cross zero. You are basically throwing away 1 to zero and zero to 1 so 2+ points of value..... but you are getting to the other side of the very key number of 3 in this scenario.
    Yeah. It is definitely marginal. No way I would be bothering with FPS like this if there wasn’t only 3 football games left until next September.

  10. #18090
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Best ufc guy I know said Cejudo at +180 is absolute thievery. wrong guy favored.

    It's +190 on Betonline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    It's +190 on Betonline
    I think most people are gonna wait until weigh ins before throwing down big coin, however, that line is very questionable. I took it small.

  12. #18092
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by monsterj View Post
    I think most people are gonna wait until weigh ins before throwing down big coin, however, that line is very questionable. I took it small.
    TJ made it but he looks “great”... he’s cut to shit but it took a lot to get there.... might be energy weak.

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    Shit my guys touting a 2-1 dog as the favorite.... maybe I’m the one who’s high.

  13. #18093
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    I mean.... this guy looks cut to shit but doesn’t have aids.

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  14. #18094
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    Did OSA take over this thread? Just kidding Daly. I do like your observations but TJ is a killer. He won't need energy if he knocks him out in the first or 2nd.


    San let's get back down to business. GSW under 242. Maybe even wait until game time to grab 243? I just can't fathom 242 being a 50/50 chance of happening. Line is inflated + Cousins back tonight.....likely a bit of game rust from Cousins + he is big and will slow the game down a bit. Have to win that under 278 money back somehow?

    Leafs -135 on the road. If you're feeling risky put some on the puck line too while you're at it. Also Florida under 3.5 goals -125. I don't care if it's Sparks in net. Found that bet by searching for the Sanlmar Special.

    Penguins -1.5 -155. They were road warriors but let the last two in San Jose and LA. Not worried about Arizona at all.

    Ottawa +205 on the road @ Carolina. Have a hunch but could be wrong here....

     
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      Daly: Hey we don’t judge in the PFAWT - LBGTQ is ok so long as we all making $$

  15. #18095
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    It’s your money. Flipping coins on totals involving teams that rely on 3 point shots - which is pretty much all them. That just action.

    These are 2 track meet teams. Do the shots drop tonight or not? Who cares? It’s just spectacle and variance.

    There is a college quote floating around. “I’ll dunk when it’s worth 3 points.” Lol. College has room for varying styles. NBA does not. Warriors are mid pack on pace. Fuck that.

    I’d actually go over but I don’t want to invest my time.

    Stick to NHL.

    I haven’t done anything with NFL. I may just pass on the whole deal. No need for a “Win Simp’s Money” contest.

  16. #18096
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Here's an under starting in about 10 minutes:

    Brooklyn at Orlando - Under 217

  17. #18097
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    The NO Pelicans have scored 133 or more in 3 of their last 6 games.

    Portland, a reliable UNDER team for awhile, has played 5 consecutive games where the total was over 220.

    So how can I pick under for this matchup?

    Because I can.

    Oh, an Lillard is hurting (though he didn't appear that way on Wednesday), and Harkless is either going to be out or also hurting.

    New Orleans at Portland - Under 233.5

    And it starts in 3+ hours, so you have time to bet it.

  18. #18098
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    Sanlmar special hits still 10 mins left in the period.

    Some people haven’t even got to their seats yet.

  19. #18099
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    Spurs ML +102, total guess, haven't followed basketball at all....
    "Druff would suck his own dick if it were long enough"- Brandon "drexel" Gerson

    "ann coulter literally has more common sense than pfa."-Sonatine

    "Real grinders supports poker fraud"- Ray Davis


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  20. #18100
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    GSW under 242. Maybe even wait until game time to grab 243? I just can't fathom 242 being a 50/50 chance of happening. Line is inflated + Cousins back tonight.....likely a bit of game rust from Cousins + he is big and will slow the game down a bit. Have to win that under 278 money back somehow?
    Been considering this one all day, and I'm finally onboard.

    As maddening as the Warriors can be to watch in an under bet, as they sink 3 after 3 to sink your hopes and dreams, I believe this one really will go under.

    The Cousins factor probably will throw a wrench into everything, and with a line lie 242, if the slightest thing goes wrong with the fast scoring pace, you're in good shape with an under.

    Plus the Clippers have actually been playing some defense lately.

    Golden State at Clippers - Under 242 (you can get 243 on some accounts on Bovada, btw)

     
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      Sanlmar: Because I can. Funny.

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