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Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #33121
    Diamond BCR's Avatar
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    Talking

    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post
    I just looked at my books odds for CFB championship, and Ohio St, Georgia and Alabama all have short odds, Clemson is +1100, and pretty much EVERYONE else is +5000 (Or very close, some name brands like USC and Michigan slightly lower odds). Crazy how top loaded those odds are.
    Recruiting has become so top heavy. Those 3 schools have landed like 35 out of the top 100 24/7 composite players for multiple classes now, while the other 65 are spread among 20 other programs. Theyve got 3rd stringers that would start at almost any other program.

    The player empowerment provisions have actually helped those schools rather than even any playing field. Now, if youre a 5 star QB or DB or WR you know if I start there, Ill 80% make the pros and be drafted early.

    They have succeeded at every level their whole lives and are uber confident. If theyre wrong, the can will transfer and no longer have to sit, so its allowed the powerhouses to further consolidate talent. If things dont work out, they can go be Joe Burrow and transfer and win a NC and get drafted first elsewhere. All those teams can be beat on a given day theyre sleepwalking, but talent is talent.

  2. #33122
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post
    I just looked at my books odds for CFB championship, and Ohio St, Georgia and Alabama all have short odds, Clemson is +1100, and pretty much EVERYONE else is +5000 (Or very close, some name brands like USC and Michigan slightly lower odds). Crazy how top loaded those odds are.
    A prop on Ohio St, Bama & Georgia to win the NC would be -175ish (and still be a decent bet). Talent wise these teams are far ahead of everyone else at the moment.

    I think Utah has a decent shot to make the playoffs and Im betting them at +5000 with the intention to use it as hedge insurance. As good a team as I think they are they get smoked by any of the big 3.

  3. #33123
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    More flags......

    NFL officials threw 15 flags for illegal contact during the first week of the preseason, an elevated number that reflected the league's request that officials pay close attention to those fouls.

    It represents a steep rise from 2021 trends, when officials threw only 36 flags for illegal contact for the entire 18-week regular season.

  4. #33124
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Another Toronto fade

    Baltimore (Bradish) +139 at Toronto (Kikuchi)

  5. #33125
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Well this is gonna be some game.

    Baltimore up 3-0, but Toronto loads 'em in the 3rd, and Gurriel just singled to knock in two.

    3-2 with men on first and second, still nobody out.

    Sooooooo many multiple-run leads blown in baseball these days.

  6. #33126
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    So its recently been brought to my attention that @tigerpiper sent Druff $100 as a thank you for my JT Poston tout a few months back.

    I also was lucky enough to finish second in the freeroll the other night which to my understanding is +$100 to the Daly Kitty.

    Despite what some consider a checkered past here at PFA Id like to try and put these funds to good use.

    Im thinking we could set up a PFA nfl Pickem pool vs the spread. Ill put up the $200 and an additional $100 and we can ask for smaller donations. Be a season long activity. Get some interest in sports betting in general across the site. We can even have a prize for last place. Maybe we get Druff to throw in a hat or have a special hat made or a custom avatar or tile added.

    The other avenue is we could try and do a group pick and the FFAWT tries to run it up as much as we can or go broke in the process. Maybe we go double or nothing on the super bowl and if we end up with a big pot o cash we throw the biggest freeroll poker tournament we have ever had.

    Or maybe we pick a future bet and throw it all on there


    Id asking for feedback here. Id genuinely like to try and do something semi positive for PFA here.. but I cant invest a shit ton of time either


    Thoughts?

     
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      gut: Yes

  7. #33127
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    The one other set it and forget it format which is easy to set up and run is a suicide pool.

  8. #33128
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Another Toronto fade

    Baltimore (Bradish) +139 at Toronto (Kikuchi)
    “You got the right one, baby” was super clever, Druff. One hell, of a streak too big guy.

    The Jays fades at plus money are getting silly at this point. Sorry Simp. Home or road=BANNED

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      Dan Druff: ah huh

  9. #33129
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    The one other “set it and forget it” format which is easy to set up and run is a suicide pool.
    My head is a million miles from NFL at the moment. A last man standing would be fun if there is enough interest.

    I casually follow the Circa contest and am only vaguely aware of the rules.


    A Daly directed PFA Football IRA might be fun too. A $10 donation buys you membership. This might require the least amount of work. Upon completion funds are dispersed

    Instead of a membership fee maybe you include only those who have made any sort of contribution to this thread the past two years no matter how feeble.

     
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      Sandwich: feeble contribution rep

  10. #33130
    All Sorts of Sports gut's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    The one other set it and forget it format which is easy to set up and run is a suicide pool.
    Both could be run pretty easy on Yahoo or various other sites.

  11. #33131
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    The one other set it and forget it format which is easy to set up and run is a suicide pool.
    My head is a million miles from NFL at the moment. A last man standing would be fun if there is enough interest.

    I casually follow the Circa contest and am only vaguely aware of the rules.


    A Daly directed PFA Football IRA might be fun too. A $10 donation buys you membership. This might require the least amount of work. Upon completion funds are dispersed

    Instead of a membership fee maybe you include only those who have made any sort of contribution to this thread the past two years no matter how feeble.
    Suicide pool is in the early lead here. Its a fun format. You can spend hours trying to figure out the most +EV picks or you can log on and take the biggest favorite on the board (remembering that you can select each team once).

    Raising $$ for a gambol fund isnt an issue. Finding a place to take the action is.

  12. #33132
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    TNT NCAA - ODDS TO WIN THE HEISMAN TROPHY
    [125331] CADE KLUBNIK +7000 25.00 USD / 1750.00 USD

    Obviously Will Anderson is by main pick - put out there at 40-1 and hes fourth fav at 10-1

    Like J Gibbs. Put that out at 35-1 and hes also at 10-1

    The one I realistically like is J-S-N at 35-1 currently.

    But if we looking for long shots we are one press release away from Cade, the #1 HS QB btw, taking the job away from DJU and leading clemson to the playoffs.. this is a fairly realistic line and this can be found at 100-1

    Another longshot is M Cunningham. Hes the same type of QB as L Jackason was and this team could surprise this year. 75-1 is worth a stab.

    Im not as high on Tennessee as some others but hooker may put up gigantic numbers - enough to justify 50-1 at the current offer

     
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      simply1:

  13. #33133
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Underdog ideas

    I’m on

    Baltimore Orioles +1 -116 for Game
    Against Jay Manoah. Sissy boy RL. +198 ML for virile wagerers

    New York Mets +135 for Game

    31-9 after a loss 77.5% best in MLB

    The Mets are 5-1 ATS after they failed to cover in their last 6 games
    The Mets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games when their opponent scored 4 or more runs in their last game (ATL 13 Runs
    The Mets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games when they scored 5 or less runs in their last game (NYM 1 Runs)

    We just plain endorse the Mets in most situations



    Cards -1.5
    Cubs -159

  14. #33134
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Texas (Anihara) vs Oakland (Sears) - Under 8 -105

  15. #33135
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    This JP Sears kid is very underrated, and I'll definitely be paying attention to him going forward.

    Unfortunately, Texas pitching is lolbad, and this Arihara guy just hasn't translated his stuff from Japan. I was a little worried about him in this under pick, and so far he's looking very hiittable.

  16. #33136
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Elvis has left the building.

    With a 2 run HR. My 8th consecutive win now a sweat.

  17. #33137
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Underdog ideas

    Im on

    Baltimore Orioles +1 -116 for Game
    Against Jay Manoah. Sissy boy RL. +198 ML for virile wagerers +198 woulda been great

    New York Mets +135 for Game

    [I]31-9 after a loss 77.5% best in MLB

    The Mets are 5-1 ATS after they failed to cover in their last 6 games
    The Mets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games when their opponent scored 4 or more runs in their last game (ATL 13 Runs
    The Mets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games when they scored 5 or less runs in their last game (NYM 1 Runs)

    We just plain endorse the Mets in most situations



    Cards -1.5❌
    Cubs -159✅

  18. #33138
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Texas (Anihara) vs Oakland (Sears) - Under 8 -105
    Wormhole-ish

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  19. #33139
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Waiting on Todds feedback here, allong with any of the rest of you ffawt veterans

  20. #33140
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    So its recently been brought to my attention that @tigerpiper sent Druff $100 as a thank you for my JT Poston tout a few months back.

    I also was lucky enough to finish second in the freeroll the other night which to my understanding is +$100 to the Daly Kitty.

    Despite what some consider a checkered past here at PFA Id like to try and put these funds to good use.

    Im thinking we could set up a PFA nfl Pickem pool vs the spread. Ill put up the $200 and an additional $100 and we can ask for smaller donations. Be a season long activity. Get some interest in sports betting in general across the site. We can even have a prize for last place. Maybe we get Druff to throw in a hat or have a special hat made or a custom avatar or tile added.

    The other avenue is we could try and do a group pick and the FFAWT tries to run it up as much as we can or go broke in the process. Maybe we go double or nothing on the super bowl and if we end up with a big pot o cash we throw the biggest freeroll poker tournament we have ever had.

    Or maybe we pick a future bet and throw it all on there


    Id asking for feedback here. Id genuinely like to try and do something semi positive for PFA here.. but I cant invest a shit ton of time either


    Thoughts?
    It is up to you what you'd like to do here. Thanks for the generosity in adding money to the $100 already donated by tigerpiper, btw. Oh, and I wouldn't say you have a "checkered history" -- not at all. You've been a great asset to this site.

    I think a "fund" making group picks might be the most fun here, and then when it's all done, we either hold a big freeroll or have some other contest to determine how it's distributed.

    But the other idea (a season-long NFL pickem) is good, too.

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