*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[Sanlmar]

I think I’m catching on quickly

At what point is the juice prohibitive? My book has an early Chi vs Col -240. Seems like a good spot but anything over -200 is bad I assume?

yeah his twitter pics are quite illuminating...

I mean you look at those numbers and 200 is a bargain in some spots...think the CHI/COL is one of those spots if memory serves...I fired at 225 and feel fine about it...juice fucking blows shit, but when these teams are covering 70+% ill take it and know if I keep making that bet at that price im gonna come out on top...

I swear yesterday marked a turning point

Newspapers & Twitter. Prolly some viral Facebook deal too. -270 on Blackhawks/Avalanche. I’d never touch that

I blame social media

Some people spotted Blackhawks last year.

We had a good couple months with the 1P’s.

Lots of other good hockey trends.

Lol, Robert Kraft. Super Bowl odds haven’t changed

[Sanlmar]

I repeat this from yesterday. Maybe someone like Daly can explain.

Why have otherwise good global shops gone to 50 cent lines here? To me, this is a sign of the apocalypse.

This sounds crazy but sometimes that’s my brand. I will hazard that 1P’s have transcended gambling and entered public mania. Especially with broader legal wagering - the public doesn’t care and the shops are abusing people.

What angers me somewhat is that I am not offered a fair shot at taking the other side. Even Pinnacle & 5Dimes. Especially, 5Dimes - very early on they started stepping on this. I noticed. I remained quiet.

First they took the Jews and then the 1P’s and I remained quiet.

[ErickAA]

I repeat this from yesterday. Maybe someone like Daly can explain.

Why have otherwise good global shops gone to 50 cent lines here? To me, this is a sign of the apocalypse.

This sounds crazy but sometimes that’s my brand. I will hazard that 1P’s have transcended gambling and entered public mania. Especially with broader legal wagering - the public doesn’t care and the shops are abusing people.

What angers me somewhat is that I am not offered a fair shot at taking the other side. Even Pinnacle & 5Dimes. Especially, 5Dimes - very early on they started stepping on this. I noticed. I remained quiet.

First they took the Jews and then the 1P’s and I remained quiet.

I assume this is a hockey specific complaint? I don’t even understand what you are saying.

[ErickAA]

Also, what is the world coming to that a man can’t even go to an Asian rub and tug without it being recorded and ending up all over sportscenter.

I guess this is where we are supposed to feign fake outrage?

[Dan Druff]

A morning pick for a game at 4:30pm PST.

Detroit at Atlanta - Under 222

[Sanlmar]

Right now 5Dimes

Col/Chicago 1P

-275
+235

That’s not a 10 or 20 cent line. That’s 40. Sometimes 50 cent.

5Dimes hates sharps and may not pay you but they were famous for tight lines. Except this. This was a sign before many others.

The books were getting smashed and 5Dimes is militant about not TAKING a beating. They GIVE beatings. They snuff that shit out right quick.

It was a sign of how good 1P was. If 5Dimes doesn’t like it - it’s a good thing.

Can you imagine how many poor bastards asked for 5 figure cashouts and got denied recently?

I use 5D as an example because the difference in lines is profound. They are all terrible now.

[Dan Druff]

Right now 5Dimes

Col/Chicago 1P

-275
+235

That’s not a 10 or 20 cent line. That’s 40. Sometimes 50 cent.

5Dimes hates sharps and may not pay you but they were famous for tight lines. Except this. This was a sign before many others.

The books were getting smashed and 5Dimes is militant about not TAKING a beating. They GIVE beatings. They snuff that shit out right quick.

It was a sign of how good 1P was. If 5Dimes doesn’t like it - it’s a good thing.

Can you imagine how many poor bastards asked for 5 figure cashouts and got denied recently?

I use 5D as an example because the difference in lines is profound. They are all terrible now.

You never see 10 cent lines for numbers over 200.

The standard is 20-30 cents.

So it would be something like -220/+200 and -275/+245

[Sanlmar]

Verm, all I am saying is 1Ps are now something non gamblers know about. It’s really public and the books are treating them badly

This just happened in the past couple of days.

Simp and I never paid anything close to 200 before this week

[Sanlmar]

You never see 10 cent lines for numbers over 200.

The standard is 20-30 cents.

So it would be something like -220/+200 and -275/+245

Explain the approach/thinking from the book’s perspective

Parenthetically -I swear 5D was bad under 200 too

Yeah, your prolly right. Those are prolly all very public situations where opportunity to take an extra helping is there. It’s prolly that simple.

[ErickAA]

Ok. Got it.

I assume this is O/U 1.5 goals? My book offers the same price. I have noticed that props and derivatives are pretty much unplayable now across the board due to high juice. But still get -105 on football and basketball so can’t complain too much.

It just is what it is.

[Dan Druff]

You never see 10 cent lines for numbers over 200.

The standard is 20-30 cents.

So it would be something like -220/+200 and -275/+245

Explain the approach/thinking from the book’s perspective

Parenthetically -I swear 5D was bad under 200 too

The book is paying out a lot more than even money on the underdog win, so they need to set a bigger spread to be as profitable as the -110/-110 or -105/-105 situation in an even or point-spread matchup.

Let's look at an extreme example.

Let's say my son Benjamin is playing 1-on-1 against Lebron James, and you could bet on it.

Benjamin only has a chance to win if Lebron drops dead somehow on the court.

Therefore, the line is set at +1000000 for Benjamin to win.

If they only make it a "dime line", then Lebron would be -1000010.

So that would give them only a tiny house edge.

Therefore, the line woud be set at something like +1000000/-1100000

Anyway, that's the basic concept.

[Sanlmar]

A good book should seek to balance the action.

They are always getting the best of it at 11:10

There is no reason to gouge me.

They are not going to get balanced action from me at those odds Ben v LeBron.

But that is a bad offering. Just like 1P / 1.5 in 2019. Unless Kane drops dead of a heart attack, I win.

Unless you offer a decent and tight other side I ain’t giving you action on the under.

In LeBron’s case and the 1P case the proposition was wrong. (Should have been 2 or 2.5) People took the other side until the data become too strong.

Yeah, I see it’s a bigger number. 10 on 100 is different than 10 on 200. But 40 or 50 cents is wrong.

[Sanlmar]

If you bought Blackhawks from Pinnacle

1P 1.5
-317
+230

You lost. CBJ/Ottawa was no good either.

[Dan Druff]

Going to lose an Atlanta totals bet yet again.

That team has tortured me this season.

Sadly, nobody is scoring in the 4th, but it's a moot point already.

[Dan Druff]

The Jazz are gonna beat the Thunder in OKC.

They're already ahead. Bet it live if you still get a dog line.

Meant to do this earlier but forgot.

[Dan Druff]

I got a crappy line because I was too eager to bet it before it went to favorite status.

Only got +110.

Right now it's 35-34 Thunder and +155 for Jazz. Good value there.

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

If you bought Blackhawks from Pinnacle

1P 1.5
-317
+230

You lost. CBJ/Ottawa was no good either.

damn tv got smaller...we move on...

see one over and a couple of unders tomorrow...

[Sanlmar]

Today was no action.

Simp was quiet. Simp knows.

Baseball is coming. Exhibition baseball. No fear

[simpdog]

Tomorrow we can count our lucky Stars.

And hope the Sharks don’t bite us.

Will be a big day for me. Could be the end of 1P for me.

[Daly]

If you bought Blackhawks from Pinnacle

1P 1.5
-317
+230

You lost. CBJ/Ottawa was no good either.

I woke up to a -290 line so I passed. Going 3/4 to break even isn’t a way to get rich in life. That said very well done with these over the past few weeks.

From what I can tell there will be some -200 opetunties where it’s plus EV to make these plays but you will need to more matchup selective going forward.