Originally Posted by
Dan Druff
San and GBCP and simp and whoever else, please chew on this 1Q strategy:
- Find game where it's a lopsided matchup
- Examine betting patterns. Barring major injuries causing influence, if line is dropping for favorite, fire 1Q
- Profit
The reason?
Barring major injury, the reason the line drops for the favorite is because sharps are firing on the dog. However, often these dogs still fail to get the job done, often fading in the second half when the better team kicks it into higher gear and/or the worse team starts to run out of steam (or their plays get figured out). I've seen so many of these dogs I've bet on get fucked in the 4th as the better team blows past them.
However, I've noticed in these type of games (with the conditions noted above) that the worse team holds it together well in 1Q, and sometimes even wins outright.
Opinions?