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Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #19841
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Tablet - MARINERS vs RANGERS [BATTER PROPS] Total OVER 10.5 Hedged out - would have W

    Mobile - Baseball - MLB - 969 Minnesota Twins +102 for 1st 5 Innings W

    Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 970 Minnesota Twins/Los Angeles Angels under 9½ -120 for Game W

    Mobile - Baseball - MLB - 955 Atlanta Braves -140 for 1st 5 Innings W

    Tablet - MLB Props - Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres - Score In 1st Inning - No -145 W
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 05-20-2019 at 09:43 PM.

  2. #19842
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Texas Mike Minor cruising against hapless Mariners. Low pitch count.

    I hedged out

    Tablet - MARINERS vs RANGERS [BATTER PROPS] Total UNDER 10.5 +110.

    Under prolly good if Seattle can’t score.

    I got enough issues

  3. #19843
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    So speaking of the Texas game, let's discuss something I've noticed which might very well be a live betting opportunity.

    Notice I wasn't lamenting the 5 runs Texas put up in the 1st. I wasn't happy to see it, but I wasn't as unhappy as you might think.

    Why?

    Because I've noticed early blowout games tend to see scoring die on both sides -- especially the team losing.

    After a 1st inning where the score is 5-0, I think it might be smart to live-bet the under -- which is probably quite high by that point.

    Of course as I right this, Leake just gave up another 2 runs in the 4th and there's a man on 2nd, but that's because they aren't removing him and just letting him flail and eat innings.

    So my under 11 isn't looking that hot, but I think a bet after 5-0 in the first (under 14 at that point?) would have been smart.

  4. #19844
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Of course, 5 in 1st inning is an anomaly and you can’t extrapolate the game at that rate. I was big on this in prior years.

    However, near 20 in a game is a daily (multiple) occurrence with the rabbit ball.

    Still a good idea for those with strong stomachs.

    I believe you take this down Druff. I can’t read the weather. Weird. Minor dealin

    Edit:

    Final score 10-9
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 05-20-2019 at 07:07 PM.

  5. #19845
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Paddack/Weaver 1P

    cashes in almost immaculate fashion

    Pretty good streak GBCP

    2-0 1P’s today no drama

  6. #19846
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Paddack/Weaver 1P

    cashes in almost immaculate fashion

    Pretty good streak GBCP

    2-0 1P’s today no drama
    god bless sir...got a little cheap price on those guys..clockwork...gonna look at tomorrows slate...

  7. #19847
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    efflin (PHL) v. Quintana (CHC)…

    Quintana 8IP 2.25 ERA 1.00 WHIP
    efflin 9IP 2.00ERA 0.78 WHIP

    pineda (MIN) v. cahill (LAA)...want to like this one but cahill has given up a run in 2 of his last 3...sexy WHIP

    pineda 9IP 1.00ERA 0.56 WHIP
    cahill 9IP 4.00ERA 0.89 WHIP

  8. #19848
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Paddack/Weaver 1P

    cashes in almost immaculate fashion

    Pretty good streak GBCP

    2-0 1P’s today no drama
    god bless sir...got a little cheap price on those guys..clockwork...gonna look at tomorrows slate...
    I’m so envious. I don’t get 1st inning props until 8 am or later. They’ve been hammered out overnight. Your early prices are great.

    I’ve found the process has been good for me though beyond just 1st inning. Somehow I feel better about the rest of the games from what I’ve learned.

    Time will tell.

    Edit

    Nothing compelling either way. Here’s classic Kershaw value. Love to know the price

    Again these numbers are pure 1st inning

    Kershaw
    IP6 7.50ERA 1.50Whip y/n 2-1 3-3
    Hits7 Walks2 SO6

    Hunter Wood Tampa Bay only one 1st inning - he was a no
    Hits1 Walks0 SO1

    Shoulder soreness, out 2 weeks. Let’s come back against the Dodgers in his second start. Otherwise he’s a middle reliever. 29th round draft pick 25yold.

    Kershaw really isn’t good in the 1st. Greinke and Anderson are similarly bad but they don’t have a halo.

    Tampa Bay has a sick record of yes 1st innings this year.

    Kershaw paid last outing. The more I look the more I love.

    No’s are better than yes imo. Pitching trumps hitting but this is what we have tomorrow.
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 05-20-2019 at 09:26 PM.

  9. #19849
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post
    efflin (PHL) v. Quintana (CHC)…

    I like this a lot. Lotta SO. No contact

    Quintana 8IP 2.25 ERA 1.00 WHIP
    efflin 9IP 2.00ERA 0.78 WHIP


    Minnesota is a monster. Twins fucked Cahill bad his last outing including the 1st inning. Angels are inept offensively
    One yes & One no


    Pineda (MIN) v. cahill (LAA)...want to like this one but cahill has given up a run in 2 of his last 3...sexy WHIP

    pineda 9IP 1.00ERA 0.56 WHIP
    cahill 9IP 4.00ERA 0.89 WHIP
    Can you work up a quote on those 2. Elfin & Kershaw games

  10. #19850
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Tablet - MARINERS vs RANGERS [BATTER PROPS] Total OVER 10.5 Hedged out - would have W

    Mobile - Baseball - MLB - 969 Minnesota Twins +102 for 1st 5 Innings W

    Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 970 Minnesota Twins/Los Angeles Angels under 9½ -120 for Game W

    Mobile - Baseball - MLB - 955 Atlanta Braves -140 for 1st 5 Innings W

    Tablet - MLB Props - Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres - Score In 1st Inning - No -145 W

  11. #19851
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    aight san, here we go...

    got even money on Kershaw for YES
    got -112 for PHL/CHC NO

  12. #19852
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    What a horrible run in MLB for me -- one of my worst weeks ever betting baseball.

    Today's schedule is interesting... 12 of the 15 games start between 4:05 and 5:15pm PDT!

    I'm actually running so bad right now that even the picks I considered but passed on have mostly lost!

  13. #19853
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    The bad news....

    Through 5/10:
    Underdogs: 13-14 (+4.25)
    Totals: 10-10-1 (-1.02)
    Favorites: 6-4 (+1.49)
    Overall: 29-28-1, +4.72 units

    5/11
    White Sox (Nova) +145 at Toronto (Stroman) - WON +1.45

    5/12
    Atlanta (Fried) -118 at Arizona (Godley) - WON +0.85
    Milwaukee (Chacin) +113 at Cubs (Lester) - LOST -1
    Total 5/12: 1-1, -0.15

    5/13
    Detroit (Boyd) +149 vs. Houston (Peacock) - LOST -1

    5/14
    Cleveland (Carrasco) at White Sox (Banuelos) - Under 8 -110 - LOST -1
    Washington (Hellickson) +134 vs. Mets (Syndergaard) - LOST -1
    Miami (Caleb Smith) +120 vs. Tampa Bay (Morton) - LOST -1
    Total 5/14: 0-3, -3.00

    5/15
    Reds/Cubs Under 9 -110 - LOST -1
    Kansas City (Jorge Lopez) +107 vs. Texas (Minor) - LOST -1
    Kansas City (Jorge Lopez) vs. Texas (Minor) - Under 9.5 -115 - WON +0.87
    Total 5/15: 1-2, -1.13

    5/16
    Oakland (Bassitt) at Detroit (Turnbull) Under 8.5 -115 - LOST -1
    Texas (Lynn) at KC (Bailey) Over 10.5 -120 - WON +0.83
    Total 5/16: 1-1, -0.17

    5/17
    Cubs/Nationals - Over 8 -115 - WON +0.87
    Tampa (Stanek) -102 at Yankees (Sabathia) - LOST -1
    Detroit (Norris) +180 vs. Oakland (Montas) - LOST -1
    KC (Keller) +143 at Angels (Harvey) - LOST -1
    Total 5/17: 1-3, -2.13

    5/18:
    San Francisco (Bumgarner) -109 at Arizona (Godley) - WON +0.92

    5/20:
    Boston (Price) at Toronto (E. Jackson) - Under 9 -115 - LOST -1
    Washington (Corbin) -1.5 -101 at Mets (Font) - LOST -1
    Seattle (Leake) at Texas (Minor) - Under 11 -115 - LOST -1
    Total 5/20: 0-3, -3.00


    Total 5/11-5/20:
    Underdogs: 1-7, -5.55 units
    Favorites: 2-1, +0.77
    Spread: 0-1, -1.00
    Totals: 3-5, -2.43
    Overall: 6-14, -8.21 units

    Season totals:
    Underdogs: 14-21 (-1.30)
    Totals: 13-15-1 (-3.45)
    Favorites: 8-5 (+2.26)
    Spread: 0-1 (-1.00)

    GRAND TOTAL: 35-42-1, -3.49 units


    Got some work to do.

    Not buried, but losing 9.66 units in 9 days isn't very fun.

  14. #19854
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Be prepared to catch a beating if your post includes any mention of wind.

    Bob Dylan was wrong.

    you don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows
    You don’t have an edge.

    Use that energy to send thoughts and prayers to JSizzle. He prolly doesn’t have a signal in his storm cellar but it’s the right thing to do

  15. #19855
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    didn't even take your boy Kershaw to get out there san...

    now let's see this cold weather in Chicago shut down the phillies and we're having a nice little night...

    EDIT: fucking efflin cant find the fucking strike zone...couldn't ask for better conditions there either...fucking dumbass..
    Last edited by GambleBotsChafedPenis; 05-21-2019 at 03:35 PM.

  16. #19856
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Was going to take the day off, given my 4-13 slump in the past week, but here's a last minute one:

    Seattle (Milone) +111 at Texas (Lynn)

    Note Milone hasn't pitched in MLB this year. Lynn kinda sucks though.

  17. #19857
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    aight im on to tomorrow...

    Castillo (CIN) v. davies (MLW)…

    Castillo 10IP 2.70ERA 1.20 WHIP...Castillo gave up 2 in his last outing vs CHC...other than that he's been pretty clean
    davies 9IP 1.00ERA 1.22 WHIP

    add in the fact we have 1PM game after a night game, I like this one...

    montas (OAK) v. Rodriguez (CLV)

    montas 9IP 1.00ERA 0.67 WHIP
    rodriguez 5IP 0.00ERA 0.00 WHIP

    cc (NYY) v. straily (BLT)

    cc 7IP 1.29ERA 0.43 WHIP
    straily 7IP 2.57ERA 1.00 WHIP...1-2 in his last 3...

    do you feel lucky game?
    Scherzer (WSH) v. deGrom (NYM)

    Scherzer 10IP 9.00ERA 1.80 WHIP...last year Scherzer was 33IP with a 1.90 ERA and 0.91 WHIP...this year his K numbers are roughly the same...1.36/inning last year, 1.34/inning this year...his ERA/WHIP numbers are up pretty decently from last year, but his FIP and xFIP are the lowest they've been since he's been with the nats...still a little early for prices, but like this one as a regression to the mean play...
    EDIT: just looked and his BABIP this year is 0.363 which is obviously fucking insane and should start to regress bigtime...

    deGrom 9IP 0.00ERA 0.56 WHIP


    Irvin (PHL) v. hamels (CHC)

    Irvin 2IP 0.00 ERA 0.00 WHIP...sample size...
    hamels 9IP 1.00ERA 0.89 WHIP
    Last edited by GambleBotsChafedPenis; 05-21-2019 at 04:40 PM.

  18. #19858
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    Hope the Raptors haters are watching.

  19. #19859
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    Hope the Raptors haters are watching.
    We had this meditation exercise at Monday’s GA mtg.

    The Trail Blazers led in the Western Conference Finals for more minutes than the Warriors by a 101-83 margin

    .......and were swept 4-0


    I am not helping you when I sign you in and you aren’t there.

    I need to get thru the LAA Minn game before I make any future plans GBCP
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 05-21-2019 at 05:34 PM.

  20. #19860
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Couple 1:10pm games today

    Listed plays for lulz

    MLB Props - Philadelphia Phillies @ Chicago Cubs - Score In 1st Inning - No +135 L

    MLB Props - Oakland Athletics @ Cleveland Indians - Score In 1st Inning - No +105 L

    MLB Props - Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers - Score In 1st Inning - No -125 W

    978 Miami Marlins/Detroit Tigers under 5 -121 for 1st 5 Innings W

    Caught it early -157 now
    Accepted: 05/22/2019 2:42:55 AM
    Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 961 Atlanta Braves -146 for Game W

    952 Cincinnati Reds/Milwaukee Brewers under 8½ -125 for Game L
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 05-23-2019 at 10:29 AM.

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