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Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #221
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Just going to state the obvious here that I am no Haralabob sportsbetting expert, but rather just a Lakers (and NBA) fan who decided to make some bets this year because I have money on Bovada (and because I think the degree of the Lakers' crappiness isn't fully understood).

    With that said, I think yesterday's O/U pick was a mistake, and not just in hindsight after it lost. I don't so much regret the spread pick (even though that lost much worse), as Charlotte just completely crapped the bed in the 3rd quarter and blew the game, but I felt the logic behind the pick was still sound.

    But why don't I like the O/U anymore? Charlotte has a different playstyle than the Lakers. They are much more in the slow/defensive camp than the fast/offensive camp. I felt that the Lakers' porous defense would render that irrelevant, and it was hard to picture a team that allowed 117 points per game for the first 5 games (and even more at the end of last season) holding the Hornets below 100.

    However, the bet was a mistake because a team not known for its scoring (or fast pace) can still have trouble putting up high scores, even against poor defensive lineups. And on the flip side, they are more likely to stifle a fast offense used to putting up a lot of points. The Lakers did get up their usual 100-110 point output (107 in this case), but indeed Charlotte could not find an offensive rhythm and scored 15 fewer points than the previous Lakers opponents averaged.

    My conclusion? I would much rather put my money on over 211 when it's the Lakers versus a high/medium-high scoring squad (where it's more likely to play fast and like an All Star game) than 203 against a non-scoring squad like Charlotte.

    That's not to say I think the under was necessarily a good pick here, either. Indeed, the game still came within 4 points of tying (and beating the final line), but I'm saying it was too unpredictable and better just to stay away.

  2. #222
    Diamond DRK Star's Avatar
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    Bears press conf going on now. AM670 the score playing it while they critique the answers. Hilarious.

    Trestman sounds like a zombie. So far, no one was fired. A few brutal questions, and he just spins it as if everything is fine in the locker room.







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    Last edited by DRK Star; 11-10-2014 at 12:36 PM.

  3. #223
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    Anyone else questioning Philly tonight?

    With Foles I would have definitely taken Philly + OVER.

    With Sanchez I like Carolina + under?

    Or is Sanchez really as game ready as they are claiming? Just like Stanton winning the Superbowl, L O FUCKING L

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    Skated Thru to PFA WP Title BHS's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    Anyone else questioning Philly tonight?

    With Foles I would have definitely taken Philly + OVER.

    With Sanchez I like Carolina + under?

    Or is Sanchez really as game ready as they are claiming? Just like Stanton winning the Superbowl, L O FUCKING L
    I think Sanchez is good to go.. Kind of like last year when Foles replaced Vick when he got hurt and went on to tear shit up..

    Philly has had many games this year where they start slow.. I don't think they'll have that problem tonight.

    Chip Kelly is going to be ready to roll and the eagles are going to fuck them up imo

  5. #225
    Diamond Hockey Guy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Headshot View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    Anyone else questioning Philly tonight?

    With Foles I would have definitely taken Philly + OVER.

    With Sanchez I like Carolina + under?

    Or is Sanchez really as game ready as they are claiming? Just like Stanton winning the Superbowl, L O FUCKING L
    I think Sanchez is good to go.. Kind of like last year when Foles replaced Vick when he got hurt and went on to tear shit up..

    Philly has had many games this year where they start slow.. I don't think they'll have that problem tonight.

    Chip Kelly is going to be ready to roll and the eagles are going to fuck them up imo
    I have no faith in Sanchez. I took Carolina & under 48.5.

    Also got Boston & Carolina in hockey as well as Indiana & San Antonio in the NBA.
    (•_•) ..
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hockey Guy
    I'd say good luck in the freeroll but I'm pretty sure you'll go on a bender to self-sabotage yourself & miss it completely or use it as the excuse of why you didn't cash.

  6. #226
    Diamond chinamaniac's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Headshot View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    Anyone else questioning Philly tonight?

    With Foles I would have definitely taken Philly + OVER.

    With Sanchez I like Carolina + under?

    Or is Sanchez really as game ready as they are claiming? Just like Stanton winning the Superbowl, L O FUCKING L
    I think Sanchez is good to go.. Kind of like last year when Foles replaced Vick when he got hurt and went on to tear shit up..

    Philly has had many games this year where they start slow.. I don't think they'll have that problem tonight.

    Chip Kelly is going to be ready to roll and the eagles are going to fuck them up imo
    Not to be a Tuesday morning quarterback but I agree big with this. Sanchez may be better than Foles too. He ran this offense in the preseason awesomely , and looked sharp last week. He looked pretty good last night too.

    Big difference running this high octane offense than sitting in the pocket for the JEts waiting to get drilled where they have had like very few good skill players. I think a lot of QBS could crush in Kellys offense

  7. #227
    Platinum JUSTIFIEDhomicide's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by chinamaniac View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Headshot View Post

    I think Sanchez is good to go.. Kind of like last year when Foles replaced Vick when he got hurt and went on to tear shit up..

    Philly has had many games this year where they start slow.. I don't think they'll have that problem tonight.

    Chip Kelly is going to be ready to roll and the eagles are going to fuck them up imo
    Not to be a Tuesday morning quarterback but I agree big with this. Sanchez may be better than Foles too. He ran this offense in the preseason awesomely , and looked sharp last week. He looked pretty good last night too.

    Big difference running this high octane offense than sitting in the pocket for the JEts waiting to get drilled where they have had like very few good skill players. I think a lot of QBS could crush in Kellys offense


    I can tell you right now Sanchez is better than Foles. He has the big game experience, and this time he actually has a system that favors a qb and actual weapons! Honestly I think Foles had an amazing run last year, and he's just not ho we thought he was. His throws are Peyton Manning duck like, except he's no Peyton Manning.

    I also find it fascinating how the game works. For instance. Celek and Matthews have had sub par-ish seasons. Matthews has one good game, and Celek, not really any. New QB means new targets. Celeks and Matthews led the team last night in targets. Crazy kinda if you think about it. It's like Carolina game planned to stop Maclin(and did) and covered Ertz while leaving Celek wide open allll night, and since Sanchez isn't Foles he was able to completely flip the switch on them.

    That being said I see Sanchez coming back down to earth next week. I still think he's better than Foles. I just think the surprise attack of what Mark Sanchez brings to the table is over with. They now have good video to watch of him running this offense.
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  8. #228
    Platinum herbertstemple's Avatar
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    NBA

    OKC...+1.5....1st HALF
    POR....-4.......1st HALF

  9. #229
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    Quote Originally Posted by herbertstemple View Post
    NBA

    OKC...+1.5....1st HALF
    POR....-4.......1st HALF
    What's your record at?

  10. #230
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Looking at Lakers today...

    They are against Memphis, the best defensive team in the NBA. Too hard to predict over/under. You have the league's best defense versus the league's worst. O/U is 197 at the moment, up from 195.5. I have no opinion on this one. It really can go either way.

    Line is Memphis -9.5, down from -11. Guess people like the Lakers because they looked good on Sunday versus Charlotte.

    This is a tough one.

    The Lakers were good in the second half on Sunday, erasing a 9 point deficit in the 3rd (and taking the lead), and then solidifying a blowout by the end. (They were their usual crap selves in the first half, down 51-42.)

    But that was at home, and that was against a mediocre Charlotte team (considerably worse than Memphis), and it was after 4 days rest.

    Today they will be on the road against a very good team.

    Still, the -9.5 is tough because Memphis doesn't score much, and a defensive team is less likely to blow out the opposition. The Lakers also performed well against Charlotte (107 points) which is mainly a defensive team.

    At the same time, the Lakers are a far inferior team, will be on the road, and will just have traveled across the country.

    I think I might stay away from this one, but if I had to pick a side, I would go Memphis -9.5. I'll decide soon if I actually bet it. Not touching the O/U.

  11. #231
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JUSTIFIEDhomicide View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by chinamaniac View Post
    Not to be a Tuesday morning quarterback but I agree big with this. Sanchez may be better than Foles too. He ran this offense in the preseason awesomely , and looked sharp last week. He looked pretty good last night too.

    Big difference running this high octane offense than sitting in the pocket for the JEts waiting to get drilled where they have had like very few good skill players. I think a lot of QBS could crush in Kellys offense


    I can tell you right now Sanchez is better than Foles. He has the big game experience, and this time he actually has a system that favors a qb and actual weapons! Honestly I think Foles had an amazing run last year, and he's just not ho we thought he was. His throws are Peyton Manning duck like, except he's no Peyton Manning.

    I also find it fascinating how the game works. For instance. Celek and Matthews have had sub par-ish seasons. Matthews has one good game, and Celek, not really any. New QB means new targets. Celeks and Matthews led the team last night in targets. Crazy kinda if you think about it. It's like Carolina game planned to stop Maclin(and did) and covered Ertz while leaving Celek wide open allll night, and since Sanchez isn't Foles he was able to completely flip the switch on them.

    That being said I see Sanchez coming back down to earth next week. I still think he's better than Foles. I just think the surprise attack of what Mark Sanchez brings to the table is over with. They now have good video to watch of him running this offense.
    Don't discount the excellence of Chip Kelly as coach.

    You look at the mutts that are the Patriots (middle linebackers on D/L) and you want to fade them.

    Brady goes down. They still won. The power of Belichick.

    I trust Chip Kelly knows how to adjust. Don't get too wound up about the QB

  12. #232
    Platinum JUSTIFIEDhomicide's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by JUSTIFIEDhomicide View Post



    I can tell you right now Sanchez is better than Foles. He has the big game experience, and this time he actually has a system that favors a qb and actual weapons! Honestly I think Foles had an amazing run last year, and he's just not ho we thought he was. His throws are Peyton Manning duck like, except he's no Peyton Manning.

    I also find it fascinating how the game works. For instance. Celek and Matthews have had sub par-ish seasons. Matthews has one good game, and Celek, not really any. New QB means new targets. Celeks and Matthews led the team last night in targets. Crazy kinda if you think about it. It's like Carolina game planned to stop Maclin(and did) and covered Ertz while leaving Celek wide open allll night, and since Sanchez isn't Foles he was able to completely flip the switch on them.

    That being said I see Sanchez coming back down to earth next week. I still think he's better than Foles. I just think the surprise attack of what Mark Sanchez brings to the table is over with. They now have good video to watch of him running this offense.
    Don't discount the excellence of Chip Kelly as coach.

    You look at the mutts that are the Patriots (middle linebackers on D/L) and you want to fade them.

    Brady goes down. They still won. The power of Belichick.

    I trust Chip Kelly knows how to adjust. Don't get too wound up about the QB

    Thats what I am saying. You could put Marty Carrico in there and they still might put up 20 a game just because of Kelly.

    The fact that we now have a post season experienced guy in there under the power of Chip Kells I feel like we have a real shot to make some noise.
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  13. #233
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Looking at Lakers today...

    They are against Memphis, the best defensive team in the NBA. Too hard to predict over/under. You have the league's best defense versus the league's worst. O/U is 197 at the moment, up from 195.5. I have no opinion on this one. It really can go either way.

    Line is Memphis -9.5, down from -11. Guess people like the Lakers because they looked good on Sunday versus Charlotte.

    This is a tough one.

    The Lakers were good in the second half on Sunday, erasing a 9 point deficit in the 3rd (and taking the lead), and then solidifying a blowout by the end. (They were their usual crap selves in the first half, down 51-42.)

    But that was at home, and that was against a mediocre Charlotte team (considerably worse than Memphis), and it was after 4 days rest.

    Today they will be on the road against a very good team.

    Still, the -9.5 is tough because Memphis doesn't score much, and a defensive team is less likely to blow out the opposition. The Lakers also performed well against Charlotte (107 points) which is mainly a defensive team.

    At the same time, the Lakers are a far inferior team, will be on the road, and will just have traveled across the country.

    I think I might stay away from this one, but if I had to pick a side, I would go Memphis -9.5. I'll decide soon if I actually bet it. Not touching the O/U.
    agreed Memphis doesn't score much, relies on their D, etc...but this is a pretty damn high total for a MEM game @ 197...think this is the highest total of the year for one of their games...so vegas doesn't think there will be a scoring issue in this one...loaded up some daily fantasy teams with lee/zeebo/gasol...

  14. #234
    Platinum herbertstemple's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spookygook View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by herbertstemple View Post
    NBA

    OKC...+1.5....1st HALF
    POR....-4.......1st HALF
    What's your record at?
    4 Wins
    6 Losses

    after today

    Portland getting skull fucked tonight.

    Just have to eliminate the losses.
    Last edited by herbertstemple; 11-11-2014 at 07:53 PM.

  15. #235
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    OKC down 72-66 against Milwaukee.

    Took some +310 OKC. Hoping to buy some Milwaukee back at +100 at some point in 4th Qtr

  16. #236
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    OKC down 72-66 against Milwaukee.

    Took some +310 OKC. Hoping to buy some Milwaukee back at +100 at some point in 4th Qtr
    lol as soon as I did that, OKC couldn't score for 4+ mins.

  17. #237
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    Quote Originally Posted by BeerAndPoker View Post
    LOL Shogun. Ship it.

    11/08/2014 - ONLINE at 09:42 PM

    [Ticket #: 190407534] STRAIGHT BET
    11/08/2014 @ 09:56 PM MU [24301] OVINCE SAINT PREUX +145
    (OVINCE SAINT PREUX vrs MAURICIO RUA)

  18. #238
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Lakers game easily went over, but Lakers did cover, only losing by 5.

    Glad I didn't touch it.

  19. #239
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    I thinking about taking the Blazers +3 tonight at Denver, Denver is 1-5

    Blazers just played long game yesterday and are presumably tired.. They've also lost twice on the road but to way better teams than Denver

    Blazers just beat Denver on Sunday 116-100 and I'm pretty sure they're going to win again tonight..

    Anybody have an opinion on this one??

  20. #240
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Weiiiiiird game tonight involving Houston and Minnesota.

    I don't know what to do with this one. Might just ignore it.

    They're playing in Mexico City.

    Houston has gone under in ALL 7 GAMES this season, and never allowed more than 98 points. Prior to their last game (a 98-87 defeat against Golden State), they had not allowed more than 93 points in any game. Houston has scored 102 points on average.

    Minnesota has scored and given up about 100 in their games so far, on average.

    Over/under opened up as low as 201 at some books. It has since rocketed (no pun intended) up to 206, after hitting as high as 206.5 -120.

    I assume the fear is that the teams will be showing off in front of the Mexican fans, and it will play more like an All Star Game than a meticulously-defended NBA game.

    So you have one team that has been averaging 196 in its games, another averaging 199, and yet the O/U is 206?!

    But I'm still afraid to bet under because of the Mexico City factor. What do you guys think?

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