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Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #31681
    Also took Georgia -6.5 this morning. Interestingly the line went down from my book later in the day, not sure why.

    The other early lines for next week I took were Houston +10.5 and Oregon +3 -120.
    Last edited by Kalam; 11-28-2021 at 09:06 PM.

  2. #31682
    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post
    Ravens completely dominating half but only up 6-0, and Browns are driving right before the half, and Ravens will be lucky if they only get a FG. Gonna be one of those games. Ravens will probably end up down 2 and win by 1 on a last second FG.
    Between turnovers and stalled drives Ravens just couldn't get any separation when they were dominating and now Browns got 1 TD drive late in 3rd and back in it. Sigh.

  3. #31683
    Damn, Ravens safety just dropped the easiest interception ever. Baker floated it right to him nice and easy and he just dropped it. Feels like it is just one of those games, and it is what it is.

  4. #31684
    Still losing day overall, but Ravens covering and Lakers doing what they do best (not covering) definitely helped a lot.

  5. #31685
    Gold JeffDime's Avatar
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    Bets for Nov 29- Dec 15(Week 18)

    New

    PGA Hero World Challenge - C. Morikawa $1000 at +900

    Start $50,000 Remaining $65,500 Current Week $0 Last Week N/A

    Total Win/Loss +$16,500

    ——-

    This course does give advantages to the bombers. But Morikawa just won the R2D. +900 I got at William Hill in Nevada. Don’t go lower than +850.

  6. #31686
    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post
    Still losing day overall, but Ravens covering and Lakers doing what they do best (not covering) definitely helped a lot.
    Faded the cripple Baker Mayfield out of boredom. Tuned in occasionally. I do love the midget and his wife’s commercials.

    Heard Lamar Jackson threw 3 interceptions in 4 minutes (4 total) and he still won. What a dreadful game. So bad.

    I saw the Browns touchdown and review. Ball bounces off the turf during the catch but it’s a prime time game and Browns weren’t gonna score a touchdown otherwise so the referees gave it to him. What a joke. The NFL flag variance is impossible to beat and I figured I lost. It’s wrestling.

    The LoL Lakers Home ATS phenomenon is just incredible and I’m so glad somebody else is cashing. How can you be that bad at home ATS? Cause Lakers/LeBron fans are idiots. People keep betting actual cash on the Lakers. You have said the books will adjust. Why should they? They are stealing from the stupid and giving to a few deserving souls like you and me and keeping the rest. I don’t think LeBron fans can read stats or the back of a cereal box. This will keep working.

    You coulda scooped some big winning numbers live when Lakers were up. I didn’t. I made my bet preflop and trusted the process. There were moments of doubt but I coulda slept well if I lost. This is the nature of autobets.

    I bet the Patriots cause I’ve become a homer and am rooting for my my Mac Jones OROY ticket. That was it betting the NFL. It’s like smoking 2 cigarettes a day. Flirting with addiction that is unhealthy.

    The Warriors Suns game is gonna be something. I have no opinion except Warriors are prolly public as fuck. That’s prolly all you need to know in this spot.
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 11-29-2021 at 08:58 AM.

  7. #31687
    My body of work here is large enough that when I say I never mock another guy’s results it can be accepted as fact. I am grateful for my good fortune. Somebody else losing doesn’t bring me any joy. Rather be surrounded by winners.

    That said, let’s address the elephant in the room.

    Druff isn’t given to public introspection. We have absolutely no idea what his process is after all these years. He used to be loosely categorized an under player. The NBA changed and so did he. That’s all we know.

    Given his late posting he appears to be some kind of steam chaser. He appears to like gathering info on as much late sharp action as possible.

    Druff also apparently believes injuries are not fully reflected in pricing. He calls out those who are not playing when he posts his pick. This is a big one. Lineups are released late. This was once value, I s’pose. Is the market getting more efficient? I have always been an efficient market guy myself. Especially now with the speed of information with social media etc there is no edge with injuries news. How they are valued is a matter of conjecture. Injuries like weather are over rated.

    I am always fascinated by how pricing and the wagering game might be changing now. Druff might be getting run over by something interesting. Wonder if he figured it out.

    I am very careful with my choices concerning the information I consume. The death of this thread (site) has me looking for shelter elsewhere. I’ve seen some truly interesting shit as I try to suss out what the wagering landscape really looks like in the normal world.

    The success of fairly untalented sports talk radio type guys is noteworthy. Some videos and a forum/discord together with a good microphone. Your community can be parlayed into a casino/Sportsbook sponsorship deal. Men’s grooming and crypto ads., of course. Very little effort. The crypto and sportsbook customer acquisition money is ridiculous. Morons are in high demand these days. So frothy. I wish I had some kind of game. Fun way to earn a living.

    Seen some shit. Here’s my trip report.

    Public loves bet boosters. I didn’t even know BOL offered them. Never looked. Generally “thanks but no thanks”

    Public LOVES parlays. People post 5 teamers daily. People log in and say “I need a 4 teamer today. Got any picks?” Wow. Adding teams like they are ordering fast food ® . Occasionally, someone will post a huge winning ticket from social media. A sage poster will respond, “but taxes”. Legalized wagering y’all.

    Legalized wagering allows opportunities the legacy offshores did not. I use the term “opportunities” tongue in cheek. For instance, you can parlay props. Public loves this. Props have higher juice, as is and the parlay math (factoring for that juice) is criminal.

    Legalized wagering affords the bettor the opportunity to always cash out an active wager at a discount. ♫ We both know that it’s wrong but it’s much to strong to let it go now ♫.

    Legalized wagering affords some to parlay live bets. Tha’ fuck, you say?

    I feel like an alien that has landed on earth and found the atmosphere uninhabitable.

     
    Comments
      
      jsearles22: San is made

  8. #31688
    San very busy with work today.

    Who are we parlaying the Jets with tonight?

    Can we trust Buffalo since Seattle is shit on the road?

  9. #31689
    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    San very busy with work today.

    Who are we parlaying the Jets with tonight?

    Can we trust Buffalo since Seattle is shit on the road?
    Been trading the bounce off the overblown Omicron dive Friday. I ain't sayin it’s not bad. I’m just saying it’s the new normal.

    I spent too much time with my proxy on Covid and fail business Wynn. It’s pretty much stabilized and I’m blowing off steam here. It’s either that or day drink to calm down

    Which is to say I haven’t looked. I saw Jets -300 last night

    BRB

  10. #31690
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    My body of work here is large enough that when I say I never mock another guy’s results it can be accepted as fact. I am grateful for my good fortune. Somebody else losing doesn’t bring me any joy. Rather be surrounded by winners.

    That said, let’s address the elephant in the room.

    Druff isn’t given to public introspection. We have absolutely no idea what his process is after all these years. He used to be loosely categorized an under player. The NBA changed and so did he. That’s all we know.

    Given his late posting he appears to be some kind of steam chaser. He appears to like gathering info on as much late sharp action as possible.

    Druff also apparently believes injuries are not fully reflected in pricing. He calls out those who are not playing when he posts his pick. This is a big one. Lineups are released late. This was once value, I s’pose. Is the market getting more efficient? I have always been an efficient market guy myself. Especially now with the speed of information with social media etc there is no edge with injuries news. How they are valued is a matter of conjecture. Injuries like weather are over rated.

    I am always fascinated by how pricing and the wagering game might be changing now. Druff might be getting run over by something interesting. Wonder if he figured it out.

    I am very careful with my choices concerning the information I consume. The death of this thread (site) has me looking for shelter elsewhere. I’ve seen some truly interesting shit as I try to suss out what the wagering landscape really looks like in the normal world.

    The success of fairly untalented sports talk radio type guys is noteworthy. Some videos and a forum/discord together with a good microphone. Your community can be parlayed into a casino/Sportsbook sponsorship deal. Men’s grooming and crypto ads., of course. Very little effort. The crypto and sportsbook customer acquisition money is ridiculous. Morons are in high demand these days. So frothy. I wish I had some kind of game. Fun way to earn a living.

    Seen some shit. Here’s my trip report.

    Public loves bet boosters. I didn’t even know BOL offered them. Never looked. Generally “thanks but no thanks”

    Public LOVES parlays. People post 5 teamers daily. People log in and say “I need a 4 teamer today. Got any picks?” Wow. Adding teams like they are ordering fast food ® . Occasionally, someone will post a huge winning ticket from social media. A sage poster will respond, “but taxes”. Legalized wagering y’all.

    Legalized wagering allows opportunities the legacy offshores did not. I use the term “opportunities” tongue in cheek. For instance, you can parlay props. Public loves this. Props have higher juice, as is and the parlay math (factoring for that juice) is criminal.

    Legalized wagering affords the bettor the opportunity to always cash out an active wager at a discount. ♫ We both know that it’s wrong but it’s much to strong to let it go now ♫.

    Legalized wagering affords some to parlay live bets. Tha’ fuck, you say?

    I feel like an alien that has landed on earth and found the atmosphere uninhabitable.
    My understanding is the books are not offering true odds on all these new parlays. Not even close. But obviously the public has no clue of the math behind it, and might not care if they did.

    And I think A lot of what is affecting Druff is just negative variance. But his thesis for a lot of his bets seems to be the bad teams are being undervalued and like you said injury news isn’t being priced in correctly, and obviously neither of these thesis have proven to be winning so far.

    Obviously fading Lakers has been great, but I do feel I left a lot of $$ on the table not betting warriors. Had another chance yesterday and passed on it again, and another easy cover.

  11. #31691
    Jets -305 & Kraken/Sabres over 5.5 +118 parlay for +189.
    Goalies confirmed
    Coyotes are feeling it a little. You could take the +1.5 PL Yotes responsibly. I like their two goalies tbh. Good Jets spot tho.


    Olive Garden bet for now. Will upgrade upon your approval to larger accommodations

  12. #31692
    I'm going to mirror your parlay and add a sprinkle of Buffalo +120.

    bigger slate tomorrow.

  13. #31693
    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    I'm going to mirror your parlay and add a sprinkle of Buffalo +120.

    bigger slate tomorrow.
    I thought of that too. I really should do Sabres.

    psuOtto points out that Calgary is 7 straight winning 1st periods. It’s -135 ML but I’m gonna nurse my dopamine rush into the evening with

    Calgary Flames -½ +165 for 1st Period

    They don’t always win the game but their opening gambit is consistent

  14. #31694
    I feel I have to make clear what was just understood between simpdog and I. This is a trash card tonight. Tomorrow is the night.

    The NHL equivalent of MNF.

    You don’t see this too often. Lol.

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  15. #31695
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Zach LaVine was sick today... and suddenly he's not sick, and he's playing.

    Upon the announcement of his suiting up, the totals line jumped 1.5 points.

    I'm going to take those 1.5 points and fire the under. LaVine probably won't be 100%, and in fact some are surprised he suited up at all.

    Chicago vs. Charlotte - Under 224.5

  16. #31696
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Sanlmar, I read your post twice. I understood all of the words, but not the greater point trying to be made.

    You are correct that I usually wait until near game time, as I like to see the way the action goes, both sharp and square. I also like to have more of a full injury picture, especially in the NBA, where that matters more.

    My early struggles this year have been as follows:

    1) Failing to ride fairly obvious streaks (Warriors playing far better than expected, Lakers being a failteam, Orlando being horrendous)

    2) Wagering on moneylines for bad teams. It's not falling this year like it used to. Had I stuck to 1H on those games, I'd be doing better. That's what I'm doing going forward with these type of games.

    3) Bad picks. Some of the picks were just not very good, and didn't come close.

    4) Wrong side of variance. There's been a lot of close ones which fell the wrong way, and some games where I seemed to be a 90%+ favorite to win at some point, where I ended up losing.

    So it's been a combo of not picking very well this season AND a lot of bad luck.

    We shall see.

  17. #31697
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Sanlmar, I read your post twice. I understood all of the words, but not the greater point trying to be made.

    You are correct that I usually wait until near game time, as I like to see the way the action goes, both sharp and square. I also like to have more of a full injury picture, especially in the NBA, where that matters more.

    My early struggles this year have been as follows:

    1) Failing to ride fairly obvious streaks (Warriors playing far better than expected, Lakers being a failteam, Orlando being horrendous)

    2) Wagering on moneylines for bad teams. It's not falling this year like it used to. Had I stuck to 1H on those games, I'd be doing better. That's what I'm doing going forward with these type of games.

    3) Bad picks. Some of the picks were just not very good, and didn't come close.

    4) Wrong side of variance. There's been a lot of close ones which fell the wrong way, and some games where I seemed to be a 90%+ favorite to win at some point, where I ended up losing.

    So it's been a combo of not picking very well this season AND a lot of bad luck.

    We shall see.
    I think his point is that you may not have the edge you think you do, the people moving the lines have all the news before you do and have squeezed all the value out before you act, and you are just flipping coins at -110 and running bad on top.

  18. #31698
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Looks like I keep flipping a coin which is biased against me.

    Bulls/Hornets playing zero defense, yet the game is close, and this under pick is probably fucked, barring a really slow 2nd half.

    I was considering Indiana and Denver picks, both of which will probably win today. Instead I chose this. Sigh.

  19. #31699
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Looks like I keep flipping a coin which is biased against me.

    Bulls/Hornets playing zero defense, yet the game is close, and this under pick is probably fucked, barring a really slow 2nd half.

    I was considering Indiana and Denver picks, both of which will probably win today. Instead I chose this. Sigh.
    I bet Thunder, Timberwolves and WFT (football). On pace to go 0-3 but there is always hope, especially in the basketball. None of the teams my sides are playing are very good, so always chance for a comeback.

    But yeah, neither Bulls or Hornets play particularly slow so you are going to need some real bad shooting in 2nd half. GL.

  20. #31700
    I have WFT +1.

    So the good news is they are up 8 points halfway through the third (should be 10, but gave away 2 points on LOL kicking game). The bad news is they literally have no kicker. Stay tuned.

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