Should have been on over 1.5 first period.Originally Posted by simpdog
Won the Draisaitl over 3.5 shots but lost the other two. Tomorrow is another day.
Should have been on over 1.5 first period.
Won the Draisaitl over 3.5 shots but lost the other two. Tomorrow is another day.
Count me in the fade group but I got matchups vs the the top 10 iron in the -130s. It’s all -180’s now which is madness.
Bryson opened in the 1400’s and was hammered down into the 700-800 range. Last time that happened he was a bad chip or 7 playoff holes away from cashing.
I won’t be making a habit of fading Burns this year - I suspect I’ll be backing him before long.
I understand this is past posting, so shame on me, but last night I again perused the 2nd half line of the late NBA games at halftime, and again one line really jumped out. The 2nd half total of the Miami-Portland game was 104.5, which seemed real low given the principals involved. So I bet the over and it cashed by 14 points.
I think the algorithms see that both teams were playing a bunch of G Leaguers, and assumed bad offense and adjusted the lines accordingly. But when there is no defense, even G Leaguers can rain down open 3's, which is basically what happened.
Do live algos account for lineups? I have never thought about that. I have assumed not.
I have preached NHL every year. At this point your soul has already been saved or you are condemned to poverty - it’s too late for most.
Home Favorites Off a Win Vs Opponent Off a Loss. Rich kids call this HFOWVOOL. Straight money for I don’t know how long.
Favorites and overs. Go ahead and try to get cute.
You saw my card above. That’s not genius. Some find quilting to be a rewarding past time. Consider that.
Last edited by Sanlmar; 01-06-2022 at 10:19 AM.
Probably not and maybe that is where there could be value. When both teams are playing G Leaguers maybe it is hurting the defense more than the books are accounting for?Do live algos account for lineups? I have never thought about that. I have assumed not.
I should pursue this if I have the time. I’m interested. Good post.Probably not and maybe that is where there could be value. When both teams are playing G Leaguers maybe it is hurting the defense more than the books are accounting for?
Well, could just be positive variance. And even if it is a real thing could be over in a couple weeks when the omicron wave subsides. But if you have a lot of free time around midnight your time might be worth a look.I should pursue this if I have the time. I’m interested. Good post.
Could also be something in the algo thats not accounting that these g leaguers arent coming in cold to these games. Theyve had a lot of playing time recently so they are going to be hitting more shots. Like when a game is a blowout in past and both teams deep bench are on court under is more likely because they haven’t had much playing time, but now a lot of these guys are playing every day. It would make sense that the live algo would take into account the current players and their previous average points in the past but now those previous points aren’t giving the full picture.
Also love and respect to the hockey god posters on here. Keep doing what you’re doing!
I've been following some of the hockey banter here (thanks Sanlmar and Simpdog), but I've got a couple of Noob questions before I start betting the big bucks here....
Shouldn't the 1st Period Over daily Win/Loss records be compared to the price we're being asked to lay for each bet?
And, same question for HFOWVOOL... 75% win is great, but what's the unit win % as compared to the price we're laying for betting every HFOWVOOL?
Surprisingly Football has gone well for 3-4 months now, No football until sat so I will dip my toe in the NBA. Detroit is playing b2b road games, Yesterday det was blown out, I look for them to be ice cold today, Taking Memphis -4 for 1stQ
-Allergic to the struggle
Just should of not played this fucking tournament. What a sloppy ass day out there. You tell me Burns wold be bogey free… I’d be stoked. One goddam birdie and par on every single Par 5. Bad irons and putting. Pretty mind boggling tbh.
As expected Detroit came out cold and obv they are awful anyhow. We getem again blow out for a 1stQ bet 32-18. I could get use to 1stQ bets, Get the money early and relax for the night, Cheers
-Allergic to the struggle
75% implied prob is -300. The most you see in a hockey game on a given night is -225. There are other betting options like Regulation (excludes OT) and spread betting (puck lines). So straight ML is not the entire story.
But yeah, of course you convert juice to prob in 1P’s too.
Like a couple years ago with 1P’s presently we are betting and benefitting thematically. The return from Covid break can’t be modeled. The books can’t adjust quick enough and perhaps don’t care with all that’s going on in football and basketball.
Fuses must be blowing and lights dimming as they try to keep up with tanking, Covid and injuries in NFL. Leave NHL alone. The NHL handle won’t hurt them
We have had recent situations where teams are using 4th string goalies cause the #1 & #2’s are on a ventilator. Then the primary goalies can’t practice all the while and are thrown into a game.
Personally, I approach hockey like baseball. That’s not unique but I like that aspect. Goalie is the pitcher. There are plenty of stats just like baseball.
I was interested in a couple NFL games. I personally believe the NFL is the most efficient market in the world so I sure as shit ain’t betting a single game spread. I wanted a teaser or two but my offshore is too savvy to offer parlays or teasers yet. Now it’s Thursday night so maybe they are taking action. I’ll look later.
Discouraging NFL action is perhaps the nicest thing they could do for me.
Interesting times.
CLV Society homie. So ‘90’s
The Coyotes woman announcer reminds me of a stroke victim.
I’m not a nice person.
PM me your book if you dont mind. I am just curious. I am using a generic skin that just follows one of the sharp offshore books (I dont know which one, doesn't even really matter), and they offer teasers, parlays, etc. the second the lines are available. The only thing they dont offer that a major book would are ML on big spreads. Although I am guessing this is some setting the bookie/operator set up himself, to minimize exposure to someone hitting a jackpot by parlaying a bunch of big underdogs and hitting.
Saturday's game between the Vancouver Canucks and Ottawa Senators - scheduled to take place at Rogers Arena in Vancouver - is expected to be postponed due to capacity limits
Not due to players/covid. Due to no fans = $$$$.
No idea how the NHL will catch up on all these games......soon Canadian teams will need to start playing home games in the US.
If I had to watch every Coyotes game, i'd stroke out also.
There are gonna be day games galore. Exhausting back to back to backs. That is where the opportunity lies because in a heads up mathletics contest where games are played in ideal conditions we prolly lose. Embrace the chaos. We are quicker to adapt and it’s exploitable.
The Shesterkin late scratch (Ro Ro) was utter sketchy bullshit though. I expect more from the NHL than the other leagues. I didn’t touch the game but I’d be furious if I took the Rangers. No need for waiting until everyone is seated with a beer and popcorn.
Shotgun all Canes options and derivatives. It’s too pure. I’m obviously scared.
Saturday bonanza.
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