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Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #14641
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    I’m venturing a guess because you don’t want to spend any Jew gold on information is that your “stats” service you subscribe to is more team trends than individual matchups...team trends for stats in the NBA are USELESS.

    Just say as a made up example the Celtics are playing the Clippers and your “stats” show that the Celtics OVER is 13-2 last 15 games vs the Clips so you go ahead and fire on the over. What you TEAM analysis wont show (because it can’t) is that Patrick Beverly shuts down Kyrie Irving (don’t know if that’s true) and since Beverly played for the Rockets and Irving played for the Cavs when those team trends accumulated you are firing on the wrong side of that bet.
    Last edited by lvpkr1009; 02-15-2018 at 10:38 PM.

  2. #14642
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lvpkr1009 View Post
    I’m venturing a guess because you don’t want to spend any Jew gold on information is that your “stats” service you subscribe to is more team trends than individual matchups...team trends for stats in the NBA are USELESS.

    Just say as a made up example the Celtics are playing the Clippers and your “stats” show that the Celtics OVER is 13-2 last 15 games vs the Clips so you go ahead and fire on the over. What you TEAM analysis wont show (because it can’t) is that Patrick Beverly shuts down Kyrie Irving (don’t know if that’s true) and since Beverly played for the Rockets and Irving played for the Cavs when those team trends accumulated you are firing on the wrong side of that bet.
    No, I am not stupid enough to pay for dumb shit like that.

  3. #14643
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Finally won one after an 0-7 slump.

    Just in time to rescue jsearles and his Martingaling.

    Now 154-127-4

  4. #14644
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    seeing early line of NOVA @ X at NOVA (-1)...no thanks...I doubt that line goes way higher...just not even close to enough value there...

    fucking NOVA had to take a big fat shit in that PROV game...

  5. #14645
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    Rising stars under 302

    I like the allstar game over 340.

  6. #14646
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    so.........................

    Name:  Capture77.PNG
Views: 331
Size:  5.2 KB

    .............im very confused...

    130 is a steep, steep price, but jesus Christ how the hell is this team not gonna lose 100 games...

  7. #14647
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post
    so.........................

    Name:  Capture77.PNG
Views: 331
Size:  5.2 KB

    .............im very confused...

    130 is a steep, steep price, but jesus Christ how the hell is this team not gonna lose 100 games...
    I mean I said the same shit last year about the Reds and they clawed out 68.

    At the end of the day they are still a professional baseball team and even shitty team win 1/3

  8. #14648
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post
    so.........................

    Name:  Capture77.PNG
Views: 331
Size:  5.2 KB

    .............im very confused...

    130 is a steep, steep price, but jesus Christ how the hell is this team not gonna lose 100 games...
    I mean I said the same shit last year about the Reds and they clawed out 68.

    At the end of the day they are still a professional baseball team and even shitty team win 1/3
    my counter...

    Name:  Capture77.PNG
Views: 339
Size:  9.9 KB

    this is the teardown astros...I cant believe that this marlins team is THAT much better than the astros were...

    Name:  Capture78.PNG
Views: 337
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    I mean that's a dogshit roster...that OF is horrid...this is obv pre JD blowing up and them cutting him...

  9. #14649
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    Time to start talking about All-Star Weekend.....


    1st things 1st.... Did they finally set the line high enough on the O/U in the all-star game? It's been easy money the past few years but I cannot remember what the line was... all i know is it smashed OVER everytime... Druff do you have any input on this? Anyone else with half a clue?

    also what are some degen bets for the contests?

    for some reason Bradley Beal at 8 or 9 to 1 sticks out to me in the 3 points shootout.. no idea what to think of the dunk or skills challenges...

  10. #14650
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post

    I mean I said the same shit last year about the Reds and they clawed out 68.

    At the end of the day they are still a professional baseball team and even shitty team win 1/3
    my counter...

    Name:  Capture77.PNG
Views: 339
Size:  9.9 KB

    this is the teardown astros...I cant believe that this marlins team is THAT much better than the astros were...

    Name:  Capture78.PNG
Views: 337
Size:  65.3 KB

    I mean that's a dogshit roster...that OF is horrid...this is obv pre JD blowing up and them cutting him...
    I'm trying here.... I think the Marlins are hurting as well. I do like to be careful with win totals already set real low.

    Look at the jets this year. Opened at 3.5 and it was -180 4.5 to the under and people still bet it.

  11. #14651
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    nah I hear ya daly...im trying to figure out why the hell that line is like that...when I first saw it I was like 'LOL theyre BEGGING you to take the under'...

    I just see this as the astros all over again...I mean those teams FLEEEEEEEW under that 66.5...

    sorry this is so small, but wanted to fit the entire marlins roster today on the screen...

    I can see a path to 67 with a rotation of chen-straily-urena-conley and Barraclough/zeigler as your back end...those first 3 guys are decent enough and if they can get it to B&Z in the bullpen I think they'll be OK...Z should still be OK for duties in the 8th or 9th because he throws absolute fucking slop and even though he's like 50 velocity decline shouldn't hurt him too much...

    Name:  Capture77.PNG
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    Last edited by GambleBotsChafedPenis; 02-16-2018 at 09:53 PM.

  12. #14652
    Silver varys's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post

    I mean I said the same shit last year about the Reds and they clawed out 68.

    At the end of the day they are still a professional baseball team and even shitty team win 1/3
    my counter...

    Name:  Capture77.PNG
Views: 339
Size:  9.9 KB

    this is the teardown astros...I cant believe that this marlins team is THAT much better than the astros were...

    Name:  Capture78.PNG
Views: 337
Size:  65.3 KB

    I mean that's a dogshit roster...that OF is horrid...this is obv pre JD blowing up and them cutting him...
    Those astros teams had ridiculously low payrolls and got down to 26mil for 2013. That said i do like the under here. Jeter clearly tore it down.
    Quote Originally Posted by Tyde
    you're more consumed with accumulating wealth than achieving spiritual enlightenment

  13. #14653
    Silver varys's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lvpkr1009 View Post
    I’m venturing a guess because you don’t want to spend any Jew gold on information is that your “stats” service you subscribe to is more team trends than individual matchups...team trends for stats in the NBA are USELESS.

    Just say as a made up example the Celtics are playing the Clippers and your “stats” show that the Celtics OVER is 13-2 last 15 games vs the Clips so you go ahead and fire on the over. What you TEAM analysis wont show (because it can’t) is that Patrick Beverly shuts down Kyrie Irving (don’t know if that’s true) and since Beverly played for the Rockets and Irving played for the Cavs when those team trends accumulated you are firing on the wrong side of that bet.
    Saying the data is useless for that reason is silly. No trends will be spot on in sports because there are always some variable to consider. A bigger problem with the 13-2 hypothetical is the sample size.
    Quote Originally Posted by Tyde
    you're more consumed with accumulating wealth than achieving spiritual enlightenment

  14. #14654
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    Quote Originally Posted by varys View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post

    my counter...

    Name:  Capture77.PNG
Views: 339
Size:  9.9 KB

    this is the teardown astros...I cant believe that this marlins team is THAT much better than the astros were...

    Name:  Capture78.PNG
Views: 337
Size:  65.3 KB

    I mean that's a dogshit roster...that OF is horrid...this is obv pre JD blowing up and them cutting him...
    Those astros teams had ridiculously low payrolls and got down to 26mil for 2013. That said i do like the under here. Jeter clearly tore it down.
    doesn't that line really smell like shit to you though? I had to actually do the math a few times before I realized that they were saying the marlins weren't going to lose 100+...

    only thing I can think of is that the NL East is gonna be one of the worst divisions so that will mask the fact that the marlins are shit...

    the nats will be dominant, the mets/phills will be very middle of the road and the braves will probably be just a little worse than that...I think the baseball schedule is unbalanced where you play within your division more than outside so given they will have a bulk of their games against very mediocre competition will mask the fact that they are a AAAA team masquerading as a big league club...

  15. #14655
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    42-28 NOVA, 3 and a half to go...taking X (+8.5) here...was willing to take 'em at 5/6 so gotta like the 8.5...huge discount to the line of X (+1)...

    nova insanely hot from 3 which should regress...

    sprinkling a little on money line at +394...

    no more than 1/2 unit total...

  16. #14656
    Diamond PLOL's Avatar
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    Weird, the Marlins are +10000 to win World Series on my book, but +22000 to win the NL pennant. LOL.

    Also, Cubs are +650 to win WS on my book. WTF. Come on, give me +950 at least. Garbage
    TRUMP 2024!

    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  17. #14657
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    FADE ME BITCH






    Well I like Texas moneyline, but I don't have a fucking clue about college so beware......
    "Druff would suck his own dick if it were long enough"- Brandon "drexel" Gerson

    "ann coulter literally has more common sense than pfa."-Sonatine

    "Real grinders supports poker fraud"- Ray Davis


    "DRILLED HER GOOD"- HONGKONGER

  18. #14658
    Diamond Mintjewlips's Avatar
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    Also, prop bet for Lakers making the playoffs was +450 then shot too +650, lol at max bet $250, I definitely fired the 250, GLGLGL
    "Druff would suck his own dick if it were long enough"- Brandon "drexel" Gerson

    "ann coulter literally has more common sense than pfa."-Sonatine

    "Real grinders supports poker fraud"- Ray Davis


    "DRILLED HER GOOD"- HONGKONGER

  19. #14659
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    Let's see where I land...
    "Druff would suck his own dick if it were long enough"- Brandon "drexel" Gerson

    "ann coulter literally has more common sense than pfa."-Sonatine

    "Real grinders supports poker fraud"- Ray Davis


    "DRILLED HER GOOD"- HONGKONGER

  20. #14660
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    The true test of a degenerate man is wagering on spring training baseball.

    It’s time to reload and take a hard look in the mirror.

    Early regular season last year was very good to me. I was posting my record in my signature for a while until it just became embarrassing. This year, there are no fresh insights or room for anti establishment opinions. Early regular season will just be the third half of 2017. That blows.

    Red Sox play Boston College today. I actually looked for a line. Two losers take the field in Florida. No JD so BC might have been the favorite.

    If you follow Twitter and podcasts and get an understanding of a manager’s goals for his pitching staff and how he approaches spring training you can get an edge as lines are posted without listing the pitchers. It’s a lot of work but if you like baseball you’re listening anyway.

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