*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[lvpkr1009]

Druff do you find the lines harder to beat at this point?

Perhaps your system works better earlier on in the season?

Early on I crushed it, then got crushed and gave up.

Too small of a sample to know this.

Its possible thats the case but a certain yes or no would just be guessing. the only way to really know is to analyze thousands of picks etc. over years and then maybe you can find a trend that correlates certain times your winning or losing and even that data could be flawed

Bottom line is 57% is really really good. Anyone who has bet every pick is winning.

Taking LONG sample sizes in betting sports is nearly impossible to do...teams changes, styles change, team philosophies change so fast that it would be impossible to do. Take any NBA team right now in the east that plays a slowdown half court style and now insert Mike D as their coach. It changes the whole landscape in the east because now every team they play is different than the year before drastically

[Daly]

If anyone has a book that has what timberlakes first song is you need to PM me.

[Daly]

Also "will he cover a price song"

[Mintjewlips]

It's not a lock, but spurs moneyline is the closest thing to being a lock imo..

Taking Rockets -2. Thanks for the fade

If I had not seen Houston lose a 20 point+ lead within a quarter in the last 2 weeks, multiple times, I would be worried....take the spurs second half...

[BeerAndPoker]

When you put a football category on Jeopardy this is what happens:

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/twt/status/959221549663371265

[Dan Druff]

Lost the Memphis under. 201 points with 20 seconds in a 1-point game and the losing team having the ball, but instead of stalling and taking the last shot, they tried to run in and take a shot, rebound became a jump ball, and that led to Detroit (the team ahead) controlling the ball, and fouling.

Then still had a shot as there were 6 seconds left in a 103-100 game (would've tied) and Memphis ball, but Detroit fouled them with 2s left, and that was that.

So close, fell the wrong way. Thought it was losing most of the way, though, so not as disappointing as others.

Washington currently holding a 120-118 lead with 2.6 left and a replay situation. Have half on ML there, so I want it to win outright.

[Daly]

If anyone has a book that has what timberlakes first song is you need to PM me.

Guys. Seriously.

Lock

[PLOL]

It's not a lock, but spurs moneyline is the closest thing to being a lock imo..

Taking Rockets -2. Thanks for the fade

*giggling*

[Dan Druff]

Third consecutive 2-1 day.

Up to 143-106-3

[Mintjewlips]

FOR THE GLORY

[Dan Druff]

I'm with ya on the Knicks, Minty.

Here are two picks, for once well before game time:

Sac +13.5
Knicks +2 (I would be shocked if Giannis plays, even though he's "questionable" right now)

More later.

[Dan Druff]

Lets also toss this onto the pile:

Lakers under 216

[simpdog]

Irving+ Morris out for Boston tonight.

Line dropped from 9.5 to 7

[ErickAA]

Well, if you are betting -110 you probably would have had to jump on the Druff bandwagon very early in the season to still be ahead. If you started tailing in November (which was only 2 weeks into the season) you would probably be down $$ at this point I am guessing.

Even at my very best record point (44-20, on the day before Thanksgiving), I'm still 97-85-3 since. That's a 53.29% winning percentage, which is a small winner betting at -110.

And that's taking me from my very best point in the season, which of course is arbitrary and unfair when evaluating my performance. I will admit I've had some regression since that hot start, and I've had some slumps which were not present through December 30, but the only extended point in the season where I'm down units is the period from December 31 to the present, and I'm a .500 picker in that stretch.

Not criticizing you record. It is great. More an observation that the more you play the more the juice really adds up. For someone that is tuned into the gambling world like you I am still surprised you haven't figured out a way to get -105 lines. At this point, the saving would be in the thousands if you did.

I understand as a purely recreational bettor more doors are open to me than maybe to you as far as finding action. No bookie with any sense is going to turn down action from or stiff a guy who bets 30 college football games every week and always pays up when he loses. Still, I think avenues are there, either betting online through an affiliate or with a local guy.

[Charham]

I'm with ya on the Knicks, Minty.

Here are two picks, for once well before game time:

Sac +13.5
Knicks +2 (I would be shocked if Giannis plays, even though he's "questionable" right now)

More later.

I am on Sac as well. not so sure about the Knicks, I am going to wait on that one.

I am on Boston -7.5 as well despite Kyrie out, and I will tail you Lakers pick. GL to us!

[Dan Druff]

Bucks are playing Giannis anyway, and Bledsoe, and Parker.

Wow.

You can get Knicks +4.5 now. I still endorse it.

[Dan Druff]

Two more picks.

Lakers +1
Portland under 215.5

[PLOL]

Knicks went up to +4.5. Took that and Lakers u217 (though I see it's 217.5 some places).

[Charham]

Bucks are playing Giannis anyway, and Bledsoe, and Parker.

Wow.

You can get Knicks +4.5 now. I still endorse it.

No way for me. Knicks suiuuuuuck.

[Dan Druff]