*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[BCR]

Had to check thread and see if anyone had this gem. It appears everyone dodged this bullet.

ESPN Stats & Info
@ESPNStatsInfo
The Kings trailed the Timberwolves by 17 points with 2:49 left in the 4th quarter.

Since 1996-97, the first year of play-by-play data, NBA teams entered the day 0-8,378 when trailing by 17 or more in the final 3 minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime.

The Kings won, 133-129.

that de'aaron fox free throw miss on purpose down 2 was a thing of beauty...

The best part was Vonleh checks in for defensive purposes and rather than boxing out the shooter ends up boxing out Dieng leaving the lane wide open. Simply amazing highlights

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

saw you posted about MEM, san...

was looking at them as well...-1 +104 for me..

[Daly]

I know it’s all Aussie open talk all the time now but it is remarkable that the Super Bowl
Odds haven’t moved an inch so far.

[Daly]

Fun fact: the last five Super Bowls have featured three games with a 1q shutout. 22 points scored total.

Think most folks remember a lot of 2h scoring in these games.

[Tellafriend]

Fun fact: the last five Super Bowls have featured three games with a 1q shutout. 22 points scored total.

Think most folks remember a lot of 2h scoring in these games.

so you are going under. any thoughts on the sides?

[Daly]

Fun fact: the last five Super Bowls have featured three games with a 1q shutout. 22 points scored total.

Think most folks remember a lot of 2h scoring in these games.

so you are going under. any thoughts on the sides?

It’s a stock pickers game. I have no idea. I lean SF but that’s hardly a Conviction recommendation.

Huge huge $$ on the over. They can’t find under money although the books have claimed they got professional money at 55.

[Dan Druff]

NY at Charlotte - Under 207.5

Atlanta at Toronto - Over 234.5

[Dan Druff]

Atlanta's score was 152-133 yesterday, and they've had a total of 239+ in 6 of last 7 games.

Charlotte has scored 92 or fewer in 4 of last 6 games, NY has scored 92 or fewer in 3 of last 6 games.

[simpdog]

Sabres moneyline -200

Under 1.5 first period +110

[Dan Druff]

Made me feel square to bet based upon recent scores, but these two were begging for it. And somehow most of the money went on the Knicks over anyway.

Atlanta is playing no defense, and the Knicks/Hornets both aren't scoring. Just seemed too obvious.

NY under doing well so far.

[Sanlmar]

saw you posted about MEM, san...

was looking at them as well...-1 +104 for me..

Fun fact:

Another 1Q blowout 31-18

We are 4-0 on 1Q

Thanks for playing

Seriously. If you have fresh numbers I’ll take em GBCP

[Dan Druff]

saw you posted about MEM, san...

was looking at them as well...-1 +104 for me..

Fun fact:

Another 1Q blowout 31-18

We are 4-0 on 1Q

Thanks for playing

Seriously. If you have fresh numbers I’ll take em GBCP

I'm missing something.

Did you post today's 1Q bet? I don't see it anywhere.

I am getting fascinated by the Sanlmar 1Q system.

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

saw you posted about MEM, san...

was looking at them as well...-1 +104 for me..

Fun fact:

Another 1Q blowout 31-18

We are 4-0 on 1Q

Thanks for playing

Seriously. If you have fresh numbers I’ll take em GBCP

been looking, can't fucking find anything and that site hasn't updated anything...

will check and see if I can get any updated stats tonight...

[Sanlmar]

Fun fact:

Another 1Q blowout 31-18

We are 4-0 on 1Q

Thanks for playing

Seriously. If you have fresh numbers I’ll take em GBCP

I'm missing something.

Did you post today's 1Q bet? I don't see it anywhere.

I am getting fascinated by the Sanlmar 1Q system.

It was in the Australian Open post today. I think only GBCP was following so....

[Sanlmar]

Fun fact:

Another 1Q blowout 31-18

We are 4-0 on 1Q

Thanks for playing

Seriously. If you have fresh numbers I’ll take em GBCP

I'm missing something.

Did you post today's 1Q bet? I don't see it anywhere.

I am getting fascinated by the Sanlmar 1Q system.

It was in the Australian Open post today. I think only GBCP was collaborating so....

[Dan Druff]

Poor 4Bet isn't around today to tail my picks, which he unfortunately did yesterday when we had that massive screwjob.

The Charlotte under is a lock barring 2OT, and the Toronto over is on pace to win after the first half, but not by any means a lock.

But still I'm liking what I'm seeing so far.

It's actually been pretty consistent this year when two low-scoring teams play each other that the under hits. You might want to watch for that. Some sharps were mashing the over on the Knicks today, but I just couldn't see it.

Edit: Wow, 2 mins with no scoring to start the 3rd in Toronto. Ouch. Can't have that on a 234.5 over.

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

aight san, this is the best I can find...doesnt give a full year, but seems to give near term trends...

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/twt/status/1222180999016173573

[Dan Druff]

I went 2-0 tonight, including that Toronto over, despite the stat in the post above showing that Toronto went under in 1H in past 8 contests.

1H tonight was 124, and the line was 120, so that went over, and that bet would have lost.

Looking at all the games listed above:

MEM 1Q -0.5 W
MIA 1Q -0.5 L
DAL 1Q O56 L
GSW 1Q U55 W
MIL 1Q U61.5 L
ATL 1Q U60 W

CHA 1H -0.5 L
TOR 1H U120 L
PHO 1H U112 L
CLE 1H O118 W

So 4-6 was the record. Just one day, so that means little, but this was far from magic.

Props to San for grabbing one of the 4 winners posted there, and ignoring the others, which went 3-6.

In general I don't like handicapping solely from the standpoint of "such-and-such happened ATS in the last X games", because each game is different, and a lot of these trends are just the result of random distribution.

I think it's more useful to look at the basic trend with the team in general -- such as whether they've been playing defense, a fast paced game, shooting well, etc. Have they been playing well in general lately, or poorly? ATS isn't as important. It's worth looking at, but some place far too high of a value on it.

[gut]

for super bowl dfs on DK cash, i cant decide on spending high on the chiefs stack with tyreek + kelce, or spreading between mostert+kittle+watkins?

Thoughts?

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

for super bowl dfs on DK cash, i cant decide on spending high on the chiefs stack with tyreek + kelce, or spreading between mostert+kittle+watkins?

Thoughts?

ill stay outta the way of giving showdown tournament advice cause that's not my thing...

only thing ill say is make sure that whatever team you build tells a coherent "story"...be really, really fucking right or really, really fucking wrong...