So I laid down my first bet of 2014, a whopping $300...

[Dan Druff]

Here's what happened:

I recently deposited on Bovada and decided to give it a shot again, because NFL season is starting, and people on 2+2 were saying they have been good with the check cashouts.

Also Bovada has been around forever and never rolled anyone I know (except Badguy, depending upon who you believe!)

I usually avoid straight bets because they are sucker bets unless you are a Haralabob type sportsbetting genius, which I'm not.

However, I looked at the Dodgers' line today and the O/U was 7.5.

This made no sense to me.

Dodgers and Cubs have both been hitting well this series.
The Cubs had an awful pitcher starting (Jacob Turner).
The Dodgers were using their awful bullpen to pitch the entire game, starting with Jamey Wright (lol).

How the hell would this game go under 7.5?!

Sadly I didn't have much of a roll on Bodog and was afraid to lose too much. Since it's such a pain in the ass to get $ on there, I just threw a token $300 on it. I also got -105.

Score right now in the 5th: 5-4 Dodgers

So it's gone exactly like I thought. So I win, but now I feel stupid for not just risking $1k or something.

[zealanddonk]

A lot of your regrets seem to be "I was right and made some money, I wish I had made more money".

Either be happy with your decision making process, or risk more money.

[delaware]

dont ever feel stupid. your just not a sports better. nothing wrong with your play. besides the correct bet for what you knew was a mim of 25k. that bet even if you lose was not going to change your lifestyle in any way. but you just done that for fun. sports betting and the pits have broke alot of very poker good players

[YUUP]

Hope it won Druff. I had £300 on Chelsea at 2/1.Sometimes you're the statue,sometimes you're the pidgeon

[WillieMcFML]

if anyone has any sports betting questions and wants to hear from a sharp, fire away

my references:
cards 91 wins - pray for plolp

[Hockey Guy]

Nothing wrong with a nice $300 win.

Sportsbetting is outside your comfort zone, at least large bets are, so don't stress about what could have been.

Besides, now you have $300 extra to run up on the back of the wormhole.

[herbertstemple]

Wind was probably blowing in today.

[Dan Druff]

Wind was probably blowing in today.

It was. That was also why I hesitated about betting too big.

But I still thought the two teams were going to crush 7.5 runs, which they did.

BTW welcome back

[Sanlmar]

Cliff notes:

Poster almost never makes sports bets.

Poster is number one Dodgers fan on PFA.

Poster spots garbage time pitching opportunity at end of season. (It was a great spot)

Fails to share observation.

Past posts win.

[simpdog]

Hindsight is 20/20.

Also posting bets after they win is quite poor etiquette Druff. Come on.

[ShadyJ]

In 20+ years of sportsbetting thats the first time Ive heard that straight bets are sucker bets...lol keep your day job

[delaware]

sanlmar gave the best answer. also son of loclman i have lost more than 25k it was 27k but it took 5 weeks my first and last year of betting football. when you have 2 bad pitchers to people who can hit the runs are going to add up fast. sanlmar said it best with his reply. but its a proven fact alot of winning poker players lose to sports betting and the pitts this makes druff bet ok. but also in this case druff knew every player on both teams and what they could do this is why 25k was the correct bet with druffs money its like us betting 25 dollors. druff also took as much of the gambling out of the bet as possible.

[jsearles22]

Here's what happened:

I recently deposited on Bovada and decided to give it a shot again, because NFL season is starting, and people on 2+2 were saying they have been good with the check cashouts.

Also Bovada has been around forever and never rolled anyone I know (except Badguy, depending upon who you believe!)

I usually avoid straight bets because they are sucker bets unless you are a Haralabob type sportsbetting genius, which I'm not.

However, I looked at the Dodgers' line today and the O/U was 7.5.

This made no sense to me.

Dodgers and Cubs have both been hitting well this series.
The Cubs had an awful pitcher starting (Jacob Turner).
The Dodgers were using their awful bullpen to pitch the entire game, starting with Jamey Wright (lol).

How the hell would this game go under 7.5?!

Sadly I didn't have much of a roll on Bodog and was afraid to lose too much. Since it's such a pain in the ass to get $ on there, I just threw a token $300 on it. I also got -105.

Score right now in the 5th: 5-4 Dodgers

So it's gone exactly like I thought. So I win, but now I feel stupid for not just risking $1k or something.

Do you realize how pretentious and how much of an asshole you sound like talking about the "whopping $300" and the "token $300"? Like if that money doesnt matter to you, but somehow its thread worthy. Like you whine and cry and become a petulant bitch if you are shorted $3 on a meal somehow but all of a sudden you wipe your ass with $300?

[ErickAA]

Although I agree this post has a little too much brag in it, even if druf's bet is positive EV his equity on a $300 bet is only a few dollars, so betting $300 isn't too much different than trying to save $10 on a purchase if you loo at at from purely EV perspective.

[Dan Druff]

In 20+ years of sportsbetting thats the first time Ive heard that straight bets are sucker bets...lol keep your day job

Straight bets are sucker bets unless you are among the VERY few people who can win enough to dodge the juice.

Are there worse sucker bets? Yes, there are many, such as futures bets, teaser bets when you don't know what you're doing, and others.

But sportsbooks all make their fortunes from people who think they are smart enough to not just out handicap the oddsmakers, but do it at a pace that covers the 10% (or more) juice.

Have you read the long article about Haralabob Voulgaris and his sportsbetting career? Even he struggled until he partnered with a math guy to analyze tons of games, and they found a hole in the way second-half NBA lines were set, so they exploited the hell out of it. But after that hole was closed, even Haralabob struggled for periods of time. We're talking about the guy who is acknowledged as being one of the best sportsbettors. I laugh at people who believe that they can win at sports long term, since the ratio of those who think that versus those who can actually do it is something like 1000:1.

The edge in sportsbetting comes from finding legitimate holes in the way lines or odds are set in general, such as Haralabob's discovery of the 2nd half NBA lines, or the "Wong" NFL teasers (both of which no longer exist). When you find stuff like that, you can make a living from it. When you're just firing on straight bets, the juice will eventually eat you, just as the rake will eat an otherwise breakeven poker player over time.

In this particular bet, I found a line that I felt was wrong. Maybe it was set that way because the wind was blowing in (really holds back HRs in Chicago), but even knowing that I felt it was wrong, for the reasons I already stated. So I fired on it. However, in the average day of baseball, I would rarely find a line I felt that strongly about betting.

The $300 bet wasn't a brag. I don't really brag on these forums about anything, as I think bragging is generally an arrogant and shitty thing to do.

I wasn't thumbing my nose at the amount of $300, but rather pointing out that it's very small compared to the stakes I play poker, even when I play something like 20-40. Therefore, when I make a rare sports bet that I feel strongly about, it feels odd to bet money that will have very little impact on my gambling results. I was also mentioning it because I wanted to bet $1k but felt underrolled on Bovada to lose that and keep playing 30/60, so I didn't fire that much.

[Dan Druff]

Also this is not at all the same about fighting with a company about a $10 overcharge. I do that for the principle, because I don't feel anyone (or any company) should keep my money that they're not entitled to have. While it might be a waste of my time and effort from a financial perspective, I feel a lot better about it when I get the matter rectified.

In general, being a cheap Jew who always looks for value and always speaks up in the event of overcharges/poor service is what keeps me from being like the other 95%+ of poker pros who go busto. It sets the tone for how you treat money. When you go from "I never want to waste money" to "Who gives a shit, provided it's not a lot of money", that is the beginning to an attitude that will compound and eventually make you go broke.

[ShadyJ]

In 20+ years of sportsbetting thats the first time Ive heard that straight bets are sucker bets...lol keep your day job

Straight bets are sucker bets unless you are among the VERY few people who can win enough to dodge the juice.

Are there worse sucker bets? Yes, there are many, such as futures bets, teaser bets when you don't know what you're doing, and others.

But sportsbooks all make their fortunes from people who think they are smart enough to not just out handicap the oddsmakers, but do it at a pace that covers the 10% (or more) juice.

Have you read the long article about Haralabob Voulgaris and his sportsbetting career? Even he struggled until he partnered with a math guy to analyze tons of games, and they found a hole in the way second-half NBA lines were set, so they exploited the hell out of it. But after that hole was closed, even Haralabob struggled for periods of time. We're talking about the guy who is acknowledged as being one of the best sportsbettors. I laugh at people who believe that they can win at sports long term, since the ratio of those who think that versus those who can actually do it is something like 1000:1.

The edge in sportsbetting comes from finding legitimate holes in the way lines or odds are set in general, such as Haralabob's discovery of the 2nd half NBA lines, or the "Wong" NFL teasers (both of which no longer exist). When you find stuff like that, you can make a living from it. When you're just firing on straight bets, the juice will eventually eat you, just as the rake will eat an otherwise breakeven poker player over time.

In this particular bet, I found a line that I felt was wrong. Maybe it was set that way because the wind was blowing in (really holds back HRs in Chicago), but even knowing that I felt it was wrong, for the reasons I already stated. So I fired on it. However, in the average day of baseball, I would rarely find a line I felt that strongly about betting.

The $300 bet wasn't a brag. I don't really brag on these forums about anything, as I think bragging is generally an arrogant and shitty thing to do.

I wasn't thumbing my nose at the amount of $300, but rather pointing out that it's very small compared to the stakes I play poker, even when I play something like 20-40. Therefore, when I make a rare sports bet that I feel strongly about, it feels odd to bet money that will have very little impact on my gambling results. I was also mentioning it because I wanted to bet $1k but felt underrolled on Bovada to lose that and keep playing 30/60, so I didn't fire that much.

You only need to win 53% to beat the juice. Its not hard to beat the vig but its hard to beat the vig by enough to make a profit off it thats worth while for your time. Its not a sucker bet unless your the sucker.

[BeerAndPoker]

Druff won a bet. He is 1-0 on going off his feelings about a game being off which worked out this time. It's not as if he has a 100 game sample size where he's picking 75% winners.

[ShadyJ]

In 20+ years of sportsbetting thats the first time Ive heard that straight bets are sucker bets...lol keep your day job

Straight bets are sucker bets unless you are among the VERY few people who can win enough to dodge the juice.

Are there worse sucker bets? Yes, there are many, such as futures bets, teaser bets when you don't know what you're doing, and others.

But sportsbooks all make their fortunes from people who think they are smart enough to not just out handicap the oddsmakers, but do it at a pace that covers the 10% (or more) juice.

Have you read the long article about Haralabob Voulgaris and his sportsbetting career? Even he struggled until he partnered with a math guy to analyze tons of games, and they found a hole in the way second-half NBA lines were set, so they exploited the hell out of it. But after that hole was closed, even Haralabob struggled for periods of time. We're talking about the guy who is acknowledged as being one of the best sportsbettors. I laugh at people who believe that they can win at sports long term, since the ratio of those who think that versus those who can actually do it is something like 1000:1.

The edge in sportsbetting comes from finding legitimate holes in the way lines or odds are set in general, such as Haralabob's discovery of the 2nd half NBA lines, or the "Wong" NFL teasers (both of which no longer exist). When you find stuff like that, you can make a living from it. When you're just firing on straight bets, the juice will eventually eat you, just as the rake will eat an otherwise breakeven poker player over time.

In this particular bet, I found a line that I felt was wrong. Maybe it was set that way because the wind was blowing in (really holds back HRs in Chicago), but even knowing that I felt it was wrong, for the reasons I already stated. So I fired on it. However, in the average day of baseball, I would rarely find a line I felt that strongly about betting.

The $300 bet wasn't a brag. I don't really brag on these forums about anything, as I think bragging is generally an arrogant and shitty thing to do.

I wasn't thumbing my nose at the amount of $300, but rather pointing out that it's very small compared to the stakes I play poker, even when I play something like 20-40. Therefore, when I make a rare sports bet that I feel strongly about, it feels odd to bet money that will have very little impact on my gambling results. I was also mentioning it because I wanted to bet $1k but felt underrolled on Bovada to lose that and keep playing 30/60, so I didn't fire that much.

Does $700 really mean anything playing 30/60? Your Bovada roll shouldnt mean anything really. Its basically your pocket roll when you go to the casino. If your life roll allows it.

[Sanlmar]

Also this is not at all the same about fighting with a company about a $10 overcharge. I do that for the principle, because I don't feel anyone (or any company) should keep my money that they're not entitled to have. While it might be a waste of my time and effort from a financial perspective, I feel a lot better about it when I get the matter rectified.

In general, being a cheap Jew who always looks for value and always speaks up in the event of overcharges/poor service is what keeps me from being like the other 95%+ of poker pros who go busto. It sets the tone for how you treat money. When you go from "I never want to waste money" to "Who gives a shit, provided it's not a lot of money", that is the beginning to an attitude that will compound and eventually make you go broke.

There is enough fuel in this thread to take it in a million directions.

The question I would like to ask is this:

What was it in your personal make up or life's experience that prevented you from dismissing the value of money?

It sounds like you NEVER fell into that trap.

Playing daily for worthwhile sums conditions your brain and almost requires that you make a disconnect between money & it's value.

You were finding fat opportunities in various spots. At times you were banking $10k/wk (if I remember the anecdote correctly.)

Your success was early in the life cycle of poker. I don't think it would have been humanly possible to foresee the changes in skill level and all the myriad of developments that made easy money vanish.

You didn't grow up poor. You had life skills to fall back on.

Nearly every one of us has gone bust. I have. It is almost a rite of passage.

You apparently never did.

I know you get a kick out of getting reads on people and divining their motivation - put yourself on the couch.