can't remember when they were this low in the nyc area. it has to be over 5 years ago.
gas @ costco and bj's is in the 3.40's..and the norm is around 3.51-5
thinking about prepaying in for home oil @ 3.49pg..
since everyone here is an expert at everything, what is the correct move here regarding pricing?
If you think you are getting a good price and won't stress if it goes down then lock it the fuck up. If not then roll the dice.
Absolutely no one can predict the price of oil in the future. My father is the largest retail seller of gasoline in an area that services over 1,000,000 people. He started with one gas station. He is also one of the smartest people I have ever met. The oil business is his life. In the few times he has speculated in the futures market for oil, he has gotten killed. Trust me, he can't figure it out, no one can.
You should further expound on your father's business endeavors, would be interesting content IMO.Originally Posted by Jayjami
Maybe your just looking to scuffle with Jay.You should further expound on your father's business endeavors, would be interesting content IMO.
The lesson is his father was in oil distribution his whole life. He knew the retail business. He was as knowledgeable about demand as anyone.
Still couldn't game the futures.
No one fucking knows the long term direction. Futures are a good hedge but are better gambled only short time frames.
Pretty good story to make a point.
Bonus
Great podcast. Using "Trading Places" to discuss futures trading. You can now skip the William & Mary financial markets class. Worthless anyway.
http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2013/...trading-places
Last edited by Sanlmar; 09-18-2014 at 09:20 AM.
Not going to do that. I have no problem with people here knowing my history, but my family members is another matter.You should further expound on your father's business endeavors, would be interesting content IMO.
Okay whatever.Not going to do that. I have no problem with people here knowing my history, but my family members is another matter.
With all due respect being an "oil distributor" in a certain locale has very little to do with trading derivatives. In fact, I would assert that it has almost no relevance and provides practically zero edge when dealing with that particular financial instrument.
Gotta give it up to the kid. My son the business major woulda given me a blank stare.Okay whatever.
With all due respect being an "oil distributor" in a certain locale has very little to do with trading derivatives. In fact, I would assert that it has almost no relevance and provides practically zero edge when dealing with that particular financial instrument.
Where do you go to school Krypt?
You are actually right as oil is more a proxy on the world economy and industrial production than anything to do with home heating demand.
Right now it kind of says things aren't so great.
Kogod School of Business, American University
Agreed.. I actually had to take a hit and then do a short on North Sea Crude due to prices now below $100 (97.80 currently). West Texas is down near the $90 ($92.40) line as expected (they tend to mirror each other in the 10-15 range with North Sea the high priced commodity so narrowing of the two is interesting). Also noticed weird Asian session/currency flux as Yen took a hit along with Aussie Dollar today.. Also of note Gold, Silver and Platinum are all still bearish right now but the metals are expected to rally starting mid 4th qtr.
The biggest issue with oil will be the weather.. Colder then normal winter will spike oil prices because it will cause Heating Oil to jump along with a smaller jump in NG.. Side note still trying to figure out whos fucking with bitcoins again.. Price has slowly trended down for last week a total of $50-60 depending on market.. Anywhere from 406/12 bid/ask price vs 420/26 on the other primary trading market..
I wanted to add one other thing and didn't think comment was the right part.. Some of our lovely liberal friends refuse to accept the fact that the US dollar has lost a huge chunk of value.. Prima Facia case is this.. In 2005 Hurricane Katrina caused oil prices and gas prices to skyrocket Gas here in AZ (I was out here for my cousins wedding Labor Day weekend) was roughly 3.20/gal and Oil was at approx. $145-$150/barrel.. In camparison gas prices are pretty close depending on where ya go here in Metro Phoenix however the price of Oil is over 1/3 less now (below $100 a barrel as of this morning).. Given the normal correlation between Oil prices and gas pump prices.. Gas SHOULD be in the low $2 range however due to the devaluation of the US dollar due to trillion dollar budgets and people like our resident glue eater who think somehow federal spending is all a shell game while it maybe somewhat its very much a reality we are so far in debt to China and others our bonds and the interest on them will eventually start to inflate due to credit risk and devaluation (Yes you can try to lower you supposed debt by devaluating the currency but it does your population little favors because it directly causes inflation to drive up prices). Bond prices go up interest rates on everythingelse will to.. We've been spoiled and I fear we are going to suffer the same issues Japan did with their forceable manipulation of interest rates to nearly 0 (essentially what the fed fund rate is now).. It took 20 yrs for Japan to fix that mess they made..Okay whatever.
With all due respect being an "oil distributor" in a certain locale has very little to do with trading derivatives. In fact, I would assert that it has almost no relevance and provides practically zero edge when dealing with that particular financial instrument.
While you are correct on all counts FTP. Are you actually trading long positions on these beliefs?
You can be right and broke as the market can be "wrong" for longer than your bankroll.
ive seen gas prices @ 3.25 which is the lowest I have seen in quite some time
I can see a gas station out my office window. $3.08 currently
It's hilarious that we as a society think everyone can be a dr, a lawyer, an engineer. Some people are just fucking stupid. Why can't we just accept that?
gas is a ripoff where i'm from.
don't know what i'm going to do, but when the oil companies suggest you lock in, maybe i should wait. my neighbor thought he got a good deal locking in at 355..which is good when the past few years it;s been 370>400
historically, every pricing model has oil going up in Jan/Feb..but this is a different year, and it's never been this low.
FYPI can see a gas station out my taxi cab window. $3.08 currently
Nice, although in my head I pictured jsearles working at a gas station and looking out across the street at the competition.FYP
FYP
It's hilarious that we as a society think everyone can be a dr, a lawyer, an engineer. Some people are just fucking stupid. Why can't we just accept that?
You are correct. But my father is the kind of guy that reads Investor's Business Daily on vacation! My point still stands. There are simply too many factors involved in "guessing" oil prices and their associated by-products in the short term future. Weather, the world economy, and political instability are just a few.Okay whatever.
With all due respect being an "oil distributor" in a certain locale has very little to do with trading derivatives. In fact, I would assert that it has almost no relevance and provides practically zero edge when dealing with that particular financial instrument.
I am just trying to respond to one poster's request for help. Ignore my advice at your own peril. If you can actually predict future oil prices, please contact me, I have a million dollar a year job waiting for you. Of course, if you could, every firm on Wall St. Would want to hire you as well.
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