Anti-DN/Ivey pool?

[Sitting Out]

I still think this bet is +EV

Doing some "back of the envelope" calculations, I'm starting to agree with those who are saying it's pretty neutral EV with the One Drop included, although I’m still thinking it is +EV to take the Anti- Bracelet side.

I’m curious as to what some of you poker-minded and math-minded people think about the following:

By my count, there are thirteen 10k events that they will both likely play (#5, 10, 13, 18, 22, 28, 32, 38, 40, 46, 52, 61 and 64). I'm not even including the Main Event in this because imo they are such long shots to win that. Besides 10k events, there is Event #2 25k Mix Max, Event #57 Million Dollar One Drop, and some amount of random smaller buy-in larger field events sprinkled throughout that they will likely play, especially if their incentive to win a bracelet is large enough.

(1) I'm giving them each a (very conservative) 60:1 shot at winning a bracelet in Event #2, 5, 10, 13 ,18, 28, 38, 52 and 61. These are mostly the 10k events that I think have the best chances of being “small field” events. (Maybe this is a gross over-estimate of their chances in any one of these nine events?)

(2) I'm giving them each a 120:1 shot at winning a bracelet in the 10k HORSE, the 10k NLHE 6-max, the 10k Heads Up NLHE event, the 50k Players Championship and the 10k PLO Event. I think these events will have substantially larger fields, and so 120:1 seemed fair, yet very conservative, factoring in skill level and anticipated field size.

(3) I'm giving them a 40:1 shot each to win the One Drop. There is a 56 player cap on this event, and a fair number of rich businessmen play.

(4) With regard to the smaller buy-in large field events, considering their propensity to "multi-table" and try to run up their stacks, as well as larger field sizes, but also considering that many of the events listed above are three, four and five day events, which limits their ability to go deep in and play concurrent tournaments, I'll allow for FOUR random large-field events each (so 8 total), at a 480:1 shot for each event... (so, Eight 480:1 shots). Here I am probably under-estimating the number of events they will play, but probably over-estimating their chances to win in one of these events, considering large field size and their general concentration levels at the earlier stages of these events.

Again... back of the envelope type calculations.... doing some simple arithmetic and algebra.... To summarize, between both Daniel and Phil:

(1) 18 total 60:1 shots (or 36 total 120:1 shots)

(2) 10 total 120:1 shots

(3) 2 total 40:1 shots (or 6 total 120:1 shots); and

(4) 8 total 480:1 shots (or 2 total 120:1 shots).

.... for a grand total of 54 total 120:1 shots. Not a landslide “bet the farm” by any means, but still +EV to take the Anti Side.

Comments and persuasive criticisms welcome before PFA collectively pulls the trigger on this bet.

you obviously have given a lot of thought about this, but it really gets back to variance. She's such a bitch and can pop up anytime (pos or neg) that for me that this "even" money bet is not worth the gamble. Enticing yes, but I think there's better bets around with reduced variance and less hassle than this is. I prefer to "gamble" on china or druff on the limit tourny where should one of them succeed, I'm getting a multiple on my investment.

[SrslySirius]

you obviously have given a lot of thought about this, but it really gets back to variance. She's such a bitch and can pop up anytime (pos or neg) that for me that this "even" money bet is not worth the gamble. Enticing yes, but I think there's better bets around with reduced variance and less hassle than this is. I prefer to "gamble" on china or druff on the limit tourny where should one of them succeed, I'm getting a multiple on my investment.

This is like saying that betting a point spread is higher variance than betting futures.

[Dan Druff]

If Ivey really is backing this bet, I feel better about it, because Ivey is a degenerate whereas I think Negreanu is more likely to offer it because he has figured out that his side is +EV.

Anyway, I agree that it's very close whether it's +EV for us or not.

I want to get this done soon before they decide to close this bet. I would really like to get the money by the end of the weekend, so I can tell DN's assistant how much I'm betting. I suppose I can ask her later to add onto it if people want to join late, but I'd prefer just to give one number and stick to it. As you saw, he is willing to bet with us without escrow on our side, which removes a big pain-in-the-ass factor here.

[big dick]

I sent you a pm I never heard back.....tell me where and how to send $

[handicapme]

After thinking about this bet, I may have to reconsider. The big question is if the one drop actually counts. If it does, then i dunno how good it is, if it doesn't then I'll put my whole (n-word rich) bankroll on this. Either way I'll prob be in for $500 (revised my 1k because i'm broke), but i'll let you know by the end of next week todd since you are collecting

[simpdog]

After thinking about this bet, I may have to reconsider. The big question is if the one drop actually counts. If it does, then i dunno how good it is, if it doesn't then I'll put my whole (n-word rich) bankroll on this. Either way I'll prob be in for $500 (revised my 1k because i'm broke), but i'll let you know by the end of next week todd since you are collecting

In before you get teased for backing out

[NaturalBornHustler]

So can we get a fucking answer if One Drop is included or not? Todd just tweeted to DN that he will have a set amount bet in next day or two, hold your horses Druff I might want in on this as may others.

[SrslySirius]

So can we get a fucking answer if One Drop is included or not? Todd just tweeted to DN that he will have a set amount bet in next day or two, hold your horses Druff I might want in on this as may others.

Yes, it counts. They award a WSOP bracelet for winning it.

[NaturalBornHustler]

So can we get a fucking answer if One Drop is included or not? Todd just tweeted to DN that he will have a set amount bet in next day or two, hold your horses Druff I might want in on this as may others.

Yes, it counts. They award a WSOP bracelet for winning it.

Alrighty then, no dice.

[WillieMcFML]

no gamble no future

[varys]

An even better bet, would be against Daniel Negreanu.

Will Daniel make a profit from tournament poker this year? Nope

Will his poker winnings excede his tournament buy-in's? No fucking way

Estimated tournament buy-in's: $3.5 to $4 million
Estimated tournament winnings: $2 to $2.5 million

Jewdonk dupe?

[TheXFactor]

An even better bet, would be to finger your asshole.

Will Daniel jack off in his trailer to gay porn this year? Yep!

Will Daniel bang a tranny hooker? Maybe

Estimated tournament buy-in's: $3.5 to $4 million
Estimated tournament winnings: $2 to $2.5 million
Amount of cash Daniel will spend to proven that he isn't gay:$1 million +

Jewdonk dupe?

Limitless is that you?

Welcome Back!!!

[The_Standard]

I'm in for $400. Todd, I will be depositing into your account no later than Wednesday of this week, probably sooner. I'll PM you when done.

Thanks

[Sandwich]

Chainsaw Allen Kessler asked on 2+2 whether the WSOP National Championship in Atlantic City (May 22) counts.
It IS an official bracelet event.
No idea if Phil or Daniel plan on coming out to Bally's AC, but I would really hope that this event does not count.
I checked Daniel's bet language again:
"WSOP Bracelet Bet Offering: me and philivey as a team, you can bet the don't on either of us winning a bracelet this summer at even money."

At first I thought hell, the WSOP National Championship is not "this summer", so of course it doesn't count.
And then I checked a calendar... Summer starts June 21! By using the words "this summer", certainly Daniel didn't mean to limit himself and Ivey to events June 21 and later, did he?

"this summer"

Someone (Todd?) oughta clarify what events count and what don't before booking this bet!

[Dan Druff]

Chainsaw Allen Kessler asked on 2+2 whether the WSOP National Championship in Atlantic City (May 22) counts.
It IS an official bracelet event.
No idea if Phil or Daniel plan on coming out to Bally's AC, but I would really hope that this event does not count.
I checked Daniel's bet language again:
"WSOP Bracelet Bet Offering: me and philivey as a team, you can bet the don't on either of us winning a bracelet this summer at even money."

At first I thought hell, the WSOP National Championship is not "this summer", so of course it doesn't count.
And then I checked a calendar... Summer starts June 21! By using the words "this summer", certainly Daniel didn't mean to limit himself and Ivey to events June 21 and later, did he?

"this summer"

Someone (Todd?) oughta clarify what events count and what don't before booking this bet!

You're right. I should, and will do this.

I believe he means WSOP bracelet events by "this summer", and obviously doesn't mean only bracelets after June 21. But you raise good points here and I will check this out.

[The_Standard]

Chainsaw Allen Kessler asked on 2+2 whether the WSOP National Championship in Atlantic City (May 22) counts.
It IS an official bracelet event.
No idea if Phil or Daniel plan on coming out to Bally's AC, but I would really hope that this event does not count.
I checked Daniel's bet language again:
"WSOP Bracelet Bet Offering: me and philivey as a team, you can bet the don't on either of us winning a bracelet this summer at even money."

At first I thought hell, the WSOP National Championship is not "this summer", so of course it doesn't count.
And then I checked a calendar... Summer starts June 21! By using the words "this summer", certainly Daniel didn't mean to limit himself and Ivey to events June 21 and later, did he?

"this summer"

Someone (Todd?) oughta clarify what events count and what don't before booking this bet!

You're right. I should, and will do this.

I believe he means WSOP bracelet events by "this summer", and obviously doesn't mean only bracelets after June 21. But you raise good points here and I will check this out.

Lemme know asap because we need a definite clarification on this. Im planning on depositing tomorrow at 9 am so I'd like to know this before then.

[zealanddonk]

Chainsaw Allen Kessler asked on 2+2 whether the WSOP National Championship in Atlantic City (May 22) counts.
It IS an official bracelet event.
No idea if Phil or Daniel plan on coming out to Bally's AC, but I would really hope that this event does not count.
I checked Daniel's bet language again:
"WSOP Bracelet Bet Offering: me and philivey as a team, you can bet the don't on either of us winning a bracelet this summer at even money."

At first I thought hell, the WSOP National Championship is not "this summer", so of course it doesn't count.
And then I checked a calendar... Summer starts June 21! By using the words "this summer", certainly Daniel didn't mean to limit himself and Ivey to events June 21 and later, did he?

"this summer"

Someone (Todd?) oughta clarify what events count and what don't before booking this bet!

You're right. I should, and will do this.

I believe he means WSOP bracelet events by "this summer", and obviously doesn't mean only bracelets after June 21. But you raise good points here and I will check this out.

If it was obvious, people wouldn't question it.
Also, given assumedly he's been involved in prop bets before either "he's angle shooting"*, or he should expect people to angle shoot him over June 21st being the start of summer.
After all, what's he going to rule if either him or Phil somehow make the final table of the Main Event assuming it finishes in Oct/Nov.



*He isn't but he should have been a bit more precise and just say "WSOP in Vegas in 2014" to avoid this.

[Lord of the Fraud]

Just have him confirm the bet is for WSOP at the Rio 'only'


That automatically takes away any dispute with summertime dates and other possible angles.

[Benford]

You're right. I should, and will do this.

I believe he means WSOP bracelet events by "this summer", and obviously doesn't mean only bracelets after June 21. But you raise good points here and I will check this out.

Actually maybe it's better not to contact DN about this? If he clearly stated "summer" already and is unintentionally limiting himself to events dated 6/21 or later, wouldn't that make it a much more juicy +EV bet for the "anti-" crowd?

I'd actually be slightly tempted to stay quiet given this ambiguity actually seems to work in the "anti-DN/Ivey" favor.

Aren't prop bettors responsible for their own mistakes?

[shortbuspoker]

You're right. I should, and will do this.

I believe he means WSOP bracelet events by "this summer", and obviously doesn't mean only bracelets after June 21. But you raise good points here and I will check this out.

Actually maybe it's better not to contact DN about this? If he clearly stated "summer" already and is unintentionally limiting himself to events dated 6/21 or later, wouldn't that make it a much more juicy +EV bet for the "anti-" crowd?

I'd actually be slightly tempted to stay quiet given this ambiguity actually seems to work in the "anti-DN/Ivey" favor.

Aren't prop bettors responsible for their own mistakes?

Are you suggesting that Druff risk his rep by angle shooting? you have a better chance of getting him to pay MSRP for a toaster.